JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – After a mostly dry and very warm couple of weeks, there are indications that a weather pattern shift is likely starting.
Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop during Wednesday afternoon and evening, and rain and storm chances will likely remain consistent over the next several days.
The start of rainy season? ⛈️
While it is too early to know for sure, this could be the very beginning of the rainy season.
During rainy season, showers and thunderstorm activity are no longer based on cold front and storm systems moving through the area.
Tropical moisture lifts across the entire area, resulting in a very humid airmass. As the sea breeze develops each afternoon, it lifts this humid air, creating showers and storms.
These storms happen in near daily occurrences in the summer months, and as we move into late May, this could be the beginning of this transition.
Cold fronts stopping
One key sign of the start of the rainy season is the cold front no longer being able to penetrate the region.
Cold fronts help dry out the atmosphere, shoving the tropical moisture further south into South Florida and the Bahamas.
Once the cold fronts can no longer enter the area, the soupy airmass remains in place, leading to the first piece of daily thunderstorm activity.
It does look likely cold front may still push into the area, but the stronger fronts may have a difficult time getting into the area, especially south of the I-10 corridor.
Is this early?
If we have begun the push into rainy season, it would be a bit early.
The average start date of the rainy season in Jacksonville is June 3, with the start date earlier in southern areas of Northeast Florida and into early and mid-June in Southeast Georgia.
With this possible start date so early, it is possible a strong cold front would be capable of entering the area, with the best chance in Southeast Georgia.
The rainy season is a large part of the weather pattern in this area, and this week could be the very beginning of the transition to daily thunderstorms the area knows all too well.