It's time for an update as the countdown to the Great American Eclipse is down to 6 days! On this Monday, August 21, the sun will dim dramatically here in Jacksonville. As most of you know, people in Jacksonville will not see a total eclipse but about 92 percent of the sun will be blocked by the moon!
Trust me, that will be very cool.
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Partial eclipse begins in Jacksonville at 1:16 p.m.
Maximum coverage is 92% at 2:47 p.m.
Eclipse ends at 4:11 p.m.
Total eclipse time: 2 hours 56 minutes
Yet, we depend on Mother Nature cooperating, sun? clouds? rain?
We started updating this forecast back on August 4th as early indications by the forecast models suggested that the dog days of August had arrived all across America and very little change was expected from early August right through the eclipse.
That meant our rainy/cloudy afternoon pattern of weather would likely continue, not good for eclipse viewing.
Here's the latest:
Forecast models have actually decreased the possibility of seeing the total eclipse from Boise, Idaho to Kansas City, Missouri due to extensive high clouds.
But for Jacksonville and South Carolina the current six-day forecast models aren't as dire looking for afternoon building clouds and storms across the Southeast United States.
That would improve our chances to seeing a decent amount of the partial eclipse here in Jacksonville. The partial eclipse for Jacksonville will last three hours.
In fact, I am now convinced we all here in Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia will see much of the partial eclipse.
Traveling to see the total eclipse in South Carolina? It's all about timing...
The really tough part of the forecast for South Carolina will be timing, the total eclipse there will last only 2½ minutes! That's not a lot of time for clouds to pass by while the sun is in totality.
Additionally, the total eclipse in South Carolina will happen during the hottest part of the day and this will in turn be when we see the greatest amount of building cumulus clouds.
Cumulus clouds are nearly impossible to forecast, even with today's super computers.
Yes, those puffy white clouds, this time of year, can quickly turn gray and then black as they explode in size during our summer afternoons. To get them to form and develop all you need is sunshine (heat) and lots and lots of moisture.
In meteorological terms we call that precipitable water.
So, traveling to South Carolina will be a game of chance. Right now the chances are about 50-50 to being in a location in South Carolina that will be cloud free.
But, if you are traveling, not all hope is lost, as the good news is that six-day forecasts cannot determine specifics. Forecast models in the last 48 hours can start to focus on the finer details.
So, we wait to see what each updated forecast model suggests. The next update I will have will be this Friday.
Big thanks to Tropical Tidbits for these images!
Earlier forecast images are below.