Hurricane Center must be bored (and I like it)

NHC gives a 10% chance of development to weak high latitude system

By John Gaughan - Chief meteorologist

By August 29th, there maybe some significant activity in the tropics.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - Over the past weekend a stalled front over the Southeast United States (near Jacksonville) has been the breeding ground to a couple of little low pressures that have been barely spinning up and then moving off into the Atlantic Ocean. 

One of them caught the attention of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and they are giving it a 10% chance of developing. The reality is I suspect they are 90% bored of how slow August has started. 

Reminder the entity in which the NHC works under is NOAA and NOAA has made a seasonal forecast of 10-18 storms this season. We have had two weak system, one being a hurricane for about 3 hours. 

In other words, the season is going to have to ramp up in a hurry to make these numbers, 

And it might, but more on this in a moment.

Back to the area of concern. This small low pressure that weakly developed along the stalled out front this weekend has pushed off the Del-Mar-VA and is now cruising eastward, out to sea. The NHC gives this system a 10% chance of developing. No matter what becomes of it, it will remain well out to sea and fade entirely, and soon.

So, this will not be adding to the seasonal totals.

Since I am also happily bored, here's some thoughts of how seasonal totals in the past were so much lower than the super active past 25 years.

First, there have been many more legit tropical storms and hurricanes, it has been a cycle up period. This up cycle was also forecasted way back in the 1980s by Dr. William Gray and his team at Colorado State University. Their seasonal projection was based upon a 40 year cycle of active and less active Atlantic Hurricane seasons. The 1970s through the mid 1990s were part of a down cycle, since then we have been in the up cycle.

And it has been very busy.

Additionally, with so many people thoroughly watching all of the satellite data more intently since the internet has been available to everyone, smaller, more high latitude systems that were not necessarily tracked. These weak sub or tropical systems in the past are now being classified much more frequently. 

In other words, these systems have always been there but were not tracked as they are today. 

Back to what's happening right now. Nothing. There are some hints that by the very end of the month the season will begin to bubble up, see below this is the European forecast model suggesting maybe one very weak and one very possible tropical system coming off the Coast of Africa around the 29th of the month (2 weeks.)

By August 29th, there maybe some significant activity in the tropics.

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