JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The hurricane cone is the most popular product people seek when a storm threatens, according to the National Hurricane Center, but many misinterpret what it communicates.
Test yourself: What information does the hurricane cone provide?
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You are correct if you answered No. 3, since the cone communicates the possibilities of where the center of the storm may go during the next five days.
While the cone is useful for monitoring the progress of the tropical cyclone, it does not provide critical life-saving information on winds, surge, rain or tornadoes.
The cone represents only a point on the map without conveying broader storm impacts.
"The center of the storm stays within the cone for roughly two out of three forecasts," said John Cangialosi, a hurricane specialist. "This also means the center of the storm can also move outside of the cone occurring once out of every three forecasts."
The shape of the cone reflects how good or bad the National Hurricane Center's forecasts have been over the past five years.
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Some storms are caught in weather patterns that are easier to predict. Other times, conditions may be ambiguous, making a forecast less reliable.
"Don't use the storm to determine if you should evacuate or if you should prepare. Get that information from the local emergency management agency," said Robbie Berg, a hurricane specialist.
Although Jacksonville may not be in the cone of a hurricane that makes landfall, tornadoes can target Northeast Florida, since they often form in the right front quadrant of a forward moving storm.
Storm surge can indirectly impact the coast and St. Johns River, even when the cone points parallel or curves away from the area.
More specific impact information is always posted on news4jax.com/hurricane, where you can also locate evacuation zones along with the latest interactive track.