JACKSONVILLE, Fla – It typically takes the hurricane season a few months for the activity to ramp up but a disturbance could defeat the historical odds.
June can be a sleeper month with about one named storm forming every two years, on average.
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Although June is less active compared to September and August, when storms do develop during the first month of hurricane season, the usual location is in the Gulf of Mexico or east of Florida.
Here the sea surface temperatures are warmest and weakening cold fronts stall with tropical disturbances occasionally developing along the boundaries.
The recent flair up of thunderstorms currently in the southwest Gulf is over a June hotspot for tropical cyclone storm formation.
The disturbance called 91L could develop as it tracks toward Mexico, but if history holds it is too early in the season for storm development in this part of the Bay of Campeche.
No tropical storm or hurricane has developed during the first two weeks of June in this
part of the southern Gulf since the first weather satellite begin looking down on tropical systems dating back to 1961; yet the last half of the month sees a significant increase.
Rules can be broken as Subtropical Storm Andrea showed after it’s pre-season May debut and 91L may be an early bird set to develop in an unconventional location.