JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Good news for Jacksonville? There has been a general shift in LMI !!!
LMI ?!?
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Yes, “lifetime maximum intensity” has been shifting southward in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin, this has been a recent occurrence. What that means is that hurricanes are “peaking” at a lower latitude, say over the Bahamas or the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.
As recently as the 1950s (recent for some) the average location of maximum intensity was closer to the latitude of Jacksonville Florida, about 30° north latitude. Many severe hurricanes that impacted the Carolina’s (Georgia too) peaked off our coast.
Additionally, recent hurricanes have been shown to “peak” or have their “LMI” occur further east, further offshore. This implies that land areas have been spared from the more severe aspects of hurricanes.
While this trend has been shifting, it isn’t clear if this is a long term pattern shift or just how recent storms have been tracking. Keep in mind, before the insanely busy hurricane season of 2017, where three category 4 hurricanes impacted the U.S. over a 26 day period, we had just had a 12 year major hurricane drought.
During that 12 year period we saw many, many hurricanes and major hurricanes, but the mainly remained out to sea.