JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – It's a little too early to know the timing of the rain that is headed towards northeast Florida and southeast Georgia over Memorial Day weekend, but the forecast indications so far out call for some heavy rainfall.
Though it's likely to change a bit, the current forecast calls for 60 percent chances of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. The story is the same on Sunday with 80 percent chances of showers and thunderstorms followed by70 percent chances of both on Monday.
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But please keep in mind that those percentages represent your chances of getting rained on within northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. It does not account for how long the rain is expected to last or how intense the rainfall could be.
The weekend rain chances are based on to a low pressure system that may form and move into the Gulf. Whether or not this low develops the characteristics of a tropical depression or storm does not change our weekend forecast.
We expect the low pressure in the Gulf (tropical or not) to bring a healthy plume of moisture rotating up its eastern side and over the peninsula of Florida. That would increase the amount of moisture available in our atmosphere to 2 inches, which is very moist and could produce heavy rainfall. This would mean numerous showers and thunderstorms streaming northward across our area. Widespread heavy rainfall and minor flooding is expected.
Several forecast models estimate rainfall totals over the three day weekend to range between 3 and 6 inches, with some areas seeing higher amounts. It is a more likely scenario that our area will see 1.5 to 2 inches of rain between now and Memorial Day, with the heaviest rainfall along the panhandle closer to 5 inches.
Another aspect of the forecast that will become more clear over the next 48-72 hours is the positioning of the tropical moisture plume. That will determine which areas see the heaviest rainfall and if we will see the potential for flooding.
On the plus side, the clouds and showers will curtail our temperatures, only topping out in the mid to low 80s.
We will update your forecast as new information comes in, but for now it is safe to plan on rain interfering with some of your weekend plans.