NHC watching system off East Coast

Disorganized low pressure given 80% chance of becoming tropical within 5 days

By Rebecca Barry - Meteorologist
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A check in on the tropics and a detailed local forecast

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - The Weather Authority is watching a disorganized area of low pressure centered 230 miles east of St. Augustine.  As of 2 p.m. Sunday, the National Hurricane Center placed a 60 percent chance on it developing into a more organized tropical system over then next 48 hours, and n 80 percent chance over the next five days.

The National Hurricane Center is continuing to update their forecasts as the low drifts southward, with no forward momentum of its own.  Forecasters said the system is gradually becoming better organized as it drifts to the south and southwest.  Although upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for development, it is expected to become a tropical depression over the next day or two.  Conditions will become more favorable by late Tuesday.

The NHC canceled Sunday's reconnaissance flight into the disturbance, but does plan to send a Hurricane Hunter aircraft into the system on Monday.

If the system does develop, it would most likely only impact our seas and coastal forecast. The risk of rip currents was increased to moderate on Sunday with winds from the north and seas will increase to 3 to 5 feet on Monday.

While forecast models aren't in agreement, there is some agreement that the storm will begin moving north as it strengthens as it becomes the first Atlantic tropical storm of the season and be a rainmaker for the East Coast from North Carolina to New England for the Fourth of July.

We will closely monitor the low pressure system and provide updates as new information becomes available.