Tracking The Tropics

A tropical disturbance moving off the coast of Africa shows a medium chance for development

By Rebecca Barry - Meteorologist
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Has a 40% chance to become a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a surface low pressure a couple of hundred miles South-Southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.  The disturbance shows a decrease in thunderstorm activity, but an increase in definition overnight.  The disturbance does not have a defined center or any organized rotation.  Satellite imagery shows  poorly distributed convection, but plenty of energy and instability. The disturbance is moving to the West-Northwest between 15 and 20mph.

Over the next 24 hours, the disturbance has a medium chance, or a 40% chance to develop into a tropical cyclone.  Wind shear, sea surface temperature, and other factors related to development are all conducive for development only for the next 24 hours.  After 24 hours passes, the West-Northwest movement of the disturbance brings it into an area that is less conducive for development.  If the disturbance is declared a tropical cyclone, it will be difficult for it to remain a tropical cyclone, and maintain its strength and organization.

Primary concerns at this time lie solely in the Cape Verde Islands. The next update from the National Hurricane Center is scheduled for 2:00pm Tuesday. 

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