Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 02N35W and to 03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 06N and between 22W and 46W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Convection in the NW Gulf of Mexico associated an upper level trough has dissipated early this morning, but additional thunderstorms may impact Texas coastal waters today. Moderate to fresh E winds dominate most of the basin, with seas of 3 to 6 ft. However, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail north of a line from the Florida Keys to Louisiana. Smoke from agricultural fires over portions of southern Mexico is leading to reduced visibility and hazy conditions over parts of the SW and west- central Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, low pressure extending from NE Mexico into the southern U.S. Plains will continue to draw in moderate to fresh SE winds across much of the Gulf through late week. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night through late week off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula.

Caribbean Sea

Divergence aloft associated with an upper level trough N of the Lesser Antilles combined with abundant tropical moisture is resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the north-central and eastern Caribbean Sea. The trough will gradually weaken and move farther NE of the area, but atmospheric conditions will remain favorable for convection capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning early this week. Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat of flooding to Puerto Rico today. See local weather advisories for more information.

Mainly fresh east winds are being observed in the SE, north- central, and NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Elsewhere winds are mainly gentle. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades over the SE Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse nightly in the Windward Passage into the middle of the week. A surface trough that had been impacting the north-central and NE basin has finally lifting NE and out of the area

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front extends from 30N55W to 27N68W. No convection is directly associated with this front, but a mid and upper-level trough centered E of the front is inducing scattered moderate convection within 90 nm on either side of a line from 31N45W to 22N58W. Moderate mainly N winds are noted N of the front, with moderate to fresh E winds ahead of the front W of 65W.

Weak high pressure dominates most of the waters to the E of 65W, but another modest cold front extends from 31N42W to 25N50W. Ahead of this front, to 35W, fresh SW winds prevail. Fresh NE winds are occurring off the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara, as well as in the vicinity of the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft, with some 7 ft seas where winds are fresh. Waters S of 19N are dominated by moderate trades with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will drop southward over the eastern and central waters today and tonight. The front will move east of the area early this week, but some rough seas are expected behind it, N of 25N and E of 59W, through the middle of the week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik