JACKSONVILLE, Fla. –
No two snowflakes are alike as are no two hurricanes, but...
It is sounds too similar. A major hurricane, tracking unusually low in latitude through the Caribbean Sea during October, with a forecast track nearly identical to Hurricane Matthew. This was Hurricane Hazel, a twin to Hurricane Matthew that passed offshore Jacksonville in 1954. Its historical perspective can provide weather expectations for us later in the week.
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We can't assume Matthew's path will follow the predictions of the models exactly but the storm has matched the best guidance tools very closely during its week long romp through the Caribbean Sea. Confidence is high the storm will pass near the western tip Haiti and eastern Cuba and into the southeastern Bahamas by Wednesday.
Beyond Wednesday, small track shifts will have big impacts on Jacksonville's weather. We sit on the edge of the cone with a 5 day margin of track error at 230 miles.
When Hurricane Hazel passed about 200 miles east of Jacksonville, it was a major category 3 storm headed northwest. It made landfall on the North/South Carolina boarder on October 15 after leaving between 400 to 1000 people dead in Haiti. Winds reached 130 to 150 mph in the Carolinas with a 18' storm surge and nineteen deaths.
The story in Jacksonville was much calmer with one day picking up a half inch of rain and winds remaining below 25 mph. Our coast was on the west side or weak part of the cyclone.
An upper trough is steering Hurricane Matthew northward. Mature storms are vertically taller in the atmosphere and can grab upper winds which guide their path. These images show the upper trough pushing east resulting in southerly to southwesterly steering winds.
Monday mornings GFS run looks very close to the rout Hazel took. Hopefully, the paths will diverge and we won't have a repeat in history.
These pictures show the height of the atmosphere at a pressure of 500 mb. Matthew is getting steered north by the U shaped trough which is in nearly the same position in 1954 (right) as the GFS forecast position for Thursday night.