JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – A new poll of likely voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida shows that Sen. Marco Rubio leads the Senate race with 47 percent to Patrick Murphy’s 41 percent, with 10 percent still undecided.
“Rubio is holding a solid seven-point lead and appears to be on his way to re-election,” Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory, said. “Rubio is seeing support from men, 52 to 38, but also has a slim lead among women, 44 to 43.”
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“Rubio has done a better job of rallying his base (81 percent support among Republicans) than Murphy (69 percent support among Democrats). The most startling difference in this race is that 21 percent of voters have never heard of Murphy, while only 2 percent haven’t heard of Rubio, and that is a big number for a U.S. Senate candidate,” noted Binder.
When asked about Florida Constitutional Amendment 2, which allows the medical use of marijuana, the overwhelming majority of likely Florida voters (77 percent) said they would vote for the amendment, while only 18 percent said they would vote against it.
“Huge majorities of likely voters support Florida Constitutional Amendment 2. Not only are Democrats wildly supportive, but even Republicans are above the 60 percent threshold required for passage,” said Binder. “The strongest support comes from the voters 34 years old and younger but even likely voters 65 and older are in favor of legalizing medical marijuana.”
Respondents were also asked their viewpoint about marijuana legalization in general and 40 percent said marijuana should be legal for recreational use, 45 percent said marijuana should be legal for medicinal use and 15 percent it should not be legal at all.
According to Binder, in 2014, a last-minute opposition media campaign was credited with sinking a similar amendment causing it to narrowly fail. However, it appears that this time around voters are on the verge of legalizing medicinal marijuana in the state of Florida.
Methodology
The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Sept. 27 through Oct. 4, by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida’s Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 696 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.
Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014, but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were “almost certain” or “very likely” to vote in November’s general election.
The margin of error is plus/minus 3.8 percent. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 68 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and was directed by Binder, an associate professor of political science.