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Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 11N and between 22W and 31W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N and between 34W and 41W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles along 60W, south of 15W, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is evident along the trough axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from Jamaica to the Panama/Colombia border line, moving W at around 20 kt. No significant convection is depicted at moment in association with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends southwestward to 09N41W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 41W and 46W.

Gulf Of America

The remnants of Barry are inland across eastern Mexico near 22.5N 99W this morning and scattered convection continues over the western Gulf in association with it. A mid level rough is supporting numerous moderate convection over the northeast Gulf. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions prevail under week ridging. Light to gentle winds dominate the NE Gulf, with moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere, except for fresh to strong winds over the western Gulf. Seas are less than 3 ft in the NE Gulf and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except for 5 to 8 ft seas over the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the remnants of Barry are inland across eastern Mexico near 22.5N 99W this morning, while fresh to strong SE winds to 25 kt continue across portions the Mexican coastal waters north of Veracruz. Scattered squalls and are also persisting across much of the western Gulf from Veracruz to Brownsville. Winds and seas will gradually diminish there through this afternoon. Otherwise, weak high pressure will continue across the eastern Gulf through midweek, before a weak cold front sinks southward across Florida and adjacent waters, and is forecast to stall in the northern Gulf Fri.

Caribbean Sea

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information.

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the basin, with the strongest winds offshore NW Colombia. In the NW basin, moderate trades prevail. Seas are 6 to 9 ft, except 9-11 ft offshore Colombia, and 3 to 5 ft in the NW basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across most of the central and SW Caribbean through early Fri. Winds will pulse at night to near- gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela into late week.

Atlantic Ocean

Three tropical waves are between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details.

An upper level low is nearly stationary over the NW Bahamas, inducing scattered moderate convection over the Bahamas, and adjacent waters W of 68W. The remainder of the basin is generally under the influence of ridging, either from the Bermuda high, extending SW from 1024 mb center near 32N62W, or another 1029 mb high, centered over the north Atlantic. To the N of 25N, this is causing light to gentle winds W of 33W, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Over the far E Atlantic north of 18N and E of 33W , fresh NE winds are inducing 5 to 9 ft seas. For the tradewind belt S of 25N, moderate to locally fresh E winds dominate, with 5 to 7 ft seas, locally 8 ft seas within 200 nm of the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge will prevail across the region through late week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. By the end of the week, a weak cold front is forecast to move off the SE U.S. Coast into the NW waters, then stall.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Krv