JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The first official forecast for the season calls for: 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes; Category 3 or higher. This equates to a very average season which is 12, seven, and two respectively. The thirteen named storms already includes Sub-tropical Storm Alex that formed in January. Therefore another 12 storms are anticipated.
Some forecasters have already issued their numbers for the upcoming season. Accuweather is predicting 14 named storms, eight hurricanes, four major hurricanes and three named storms making landfall in the United States.
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The reason for the expected average season? Dr. Phil Klotzbach, tropical meteorologist researcher at Colorado State University, said, "We expect El Nino will dissipate in time for the upcoming season and a weak La Nina will develop making conditions favorable for development in the Atlantic. That said, we think the season will be near average because the north Atlantic waters are cold and that may counteract the more favorable conditions in the Atlantic."
The 2016 hurricane season has already started, sort of. Back in January, sub-tropical storm Alex formed becoming only the fourth named storm on record to develop in the month of January.
Last year's April forecast foretold a much more tranquil season calling for a 45 percent reduction from average. That equated to: seven tropical storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane. The actual numbers were 11 tropical storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
According to the National Hurricane Center, many were very weak and short lived storms.
Meteorologist Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) of Weatherbell Analytics posted a forecast of the latest computer models, via twitter, forecasting the temperature anomalies for the rest of the season. It indicated that El Nino will transition into La Nina (departures of more than -.5 degrees C) by the time we reach the June, July and August (JJA) time frame; just in time for the statistical peak of the season.
Is there reason for concern for those of us in Florida? Chief Meteorologist John Gaughan said yes.
"Jacksonville should consider these numbers: 3818, 52, 120. It has been a mind blowing, record smashing 3,818 days since a true major hurricane has hit the US," Gaughan said. "It has been 52 years since any hurricane hit this stretch of coast (northeast Florida or southeast Georgia), and that was Dora, a Category 2 storm.
"It's been 120 years since a major hurricane has impacted the same stretch of coast," Gaughan continued. "I'm really directing that at you, southeast Georgia. Yes, odds can streak in your favor for long stretches of time but they always revert to the same average, and that in itself can be very 'mean.'"
There are many factors that go into making a prediction. For example, Accuweather pointed out that there is a large cold pool of water over the north Atlantic as seen in the red circle below.
"When the forecasters from CSU say things like there are big question marks and four possible outcomes when putting together their qualitative discussion of the Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity for 2016, it tells me to have a plan, be ready to implement that plan and be ready for changes," The Morning Show meteorologist Richard Nunn said.
As the season gets ready to kick off June 1, it may be a good idea to review your hurricane evacuation routes out of Jacksonville and to make sure that you have all the necessary supplies to weather a storm in the event of an emergency. As somebody who has lived through two hurricanes (Rita and Ike), I can assure you that the last thing you want to do is go out shopping for batteries.
To the right is what panic looks like. Hurricane Rita in 2005 threatened Houston as a Category 5 hurricane approximately one month after Hurricane Katrina prompting the largest mass evacuation in U.S. history.
The moral of the story? Be prepared!
The next name on the list of 2016 storm: Bonnie.