JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Update: Our weekend is about to be "el Nino'ed"! The strongest measured el Nino in the Pacific Ocean is having a direct impact on our weather in Jacksonville (and the rest of the Globe too!). Clouds are already moving back into Jacksonville and by Saturday evening rains will be spreading in from the Gulf coast towards NEFL and SEGA.
So far, forecast models are on the light to moderate side for rainfall amounts with most folks seeing under an inch. There maybe a few exceptions in Flagler, Putnam and St. Johns counties that could see more than an inch of rain, mostly Saturday night.
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In the words of the late Don LaFontaine, "This time, it's for real!" For those who don't know who that is, he was one of the "famous voices" of movie trailers often starting off with "In a world."
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Anywho, a strong cold front scheduled for arrival on Sunday will usher in the chilliest weather of the Fall season so far and may prompt the areas first frost or freeze advisories by Sunday night, mainly in southeast Georgia.
It promises to be so cold that lawyers will have their hands in their own pockets! I kid.
Now before we get carried away, I want to emphasize that this is more of an average fall front but it will seem stronger to us being how warm this November has been.
So far for the month of November, going through the 20th, Jacksonville is running a staggering 7.8 degrees above normal. That's impressive; I don't care who you are.
So how cold we talking?
Current indications are that some areas across interior portions of southeastern Georgia may see temperatures flirt with the freezing mark overnight Sunday into Monday and again on Monday night into Tuesday. This would include areas up in Waycross and Alma. Further south into the I-75 corridor of Florida, mid 30s are certainly a possibility with upper 30s in Jacksonville, upper 40s to near 50 at the beach.
High temperatures on Monday may not even make it out of the 50s for many areas, including those of us in Jacksonville. Therefore I'm sounding the hoodie alarm. Better dig those things out!
It's a one hit wonder though, no offense to Billy Ray Cyrus, as the cold air will definitely be in and out pretty quick; within about two days. Therefore those of us who need a more prolonged break from the unusually warm weather will have to wait until we get deeper into the winter season. Whoa is my achy-breaky heart.
Sunday Not-So-Funday?
As the front begins to close in, it'll be bumping into a very moist, unstable airmass and the possibility of some very heavy rain will be a very real possibility.
Chief Meteorologist John Gaughan had this to say about the impending set up: "this could become a classic winter El Nino rain maker this Sunday with chilly temperatures and up to an inch of rain with some areas a bit more."
What a difference a year makes.
Check out the pictures below sent in by a viewer and participant of our StormPins application!
The images were captured by Brianc4 up near Saint George, northern Baker county near the Florida/Georgia state line. The images were captured exactly one year apart -- to the minute. That's a difference of 44 degrees!
Last year, almost to the day, we broke a 141 year old record cold temperature here in Jacksonville when the mercury dove down to an incredible 24 degrees at Jacksonville International Airport on November 20th. [Read the article]
Just one year later, Jacksonville International Airport tied a record high minimum temperature of 71 degrees from 1986.
So why so cold then and so warm now? The answer is two fold: El Nino and snow cover.
Chief Meteorologist John Gaughan and I were observing the difference in snow cover across the low 48 and noticed a markedly stark reduction in snow cover than this time last year; truly an anomalous occurrence.
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The difference from this year versus last year is truly remarkable. We monitor snow cover to our north to help forecast how cold the temperatures could fall here in our area because snow cover acts as a refrigerant for cold, Canadian air. As long as it is moving south over a snow pack, the air will stay cold. However, like this year, when strong fronts move into the southeast, they begin to lose their luster and modify before they have a chance to reach us.
Therefore it's a fairly safe bet that we'll have to wait a few more weeks to get some really true winter time cold fronts in here but that won't happen until we get more snow on the ground to our north. Stay tuned!