Retail trade group sees solid holiday sales despite pandemic

FILE - In this Nov. 29, 2019 file photo, a shopper carries a crockpot during Target's Black Friday sale, in the Borough of New York. The National Retail Federation, the nations largest retail group,  expects that holiday sales could actually exceed growth seen in prior seasons despite the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic. (AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews, File)
FILE - In this Nov. 29, 2019 file photo, a shopper carries a crockpot during Target's Black Friday sale, in the Borough of New York. The National Retail Federation, the nations largest retail group, expects that holiday sales could actually exceed growth seen in prior seasons despite the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic. (AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews, File) (Copyright 2019 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)

NEW YORK – The National Retail Federation, the nation's largest retail trade group, expects that holiday sales could actually exceed growth seen in prior seasons, despite all the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic.

The reason? Shoppers are looking for opportunities to spend and celebrate the holidays during tough times.

The trade group said Monday that it predicts that sales for the November and December period will increase between 3.6% and 5.2% over 2019 to a total ranging between $755.3 billion and $766.7 billion.

The numbers, which exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, compare with a gain of 4% to $729.1 billion last year. Holiday sales have averaged gains of 3.5% over the past five years.

“After all they’ve been through, we think there’s going to be a psychological factor that they owe it to themselves and their families to have a better-than-normal holiday," said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a statement. “There are risks to the economy if the virus continues to spread, but as long as consumers remain confident and upbeat, they will spend for the holiday season.”

Kleinhenz cited that households have strong balance sheets buoyed by a strong stock market, rising home values and record savings boosted by government stimulus payments issued earlier this year. Jobs and wages are increasing, energy costs are low and reduced spending on personal services, travel and entertainment because of the virus has freed up money for retail spending, he added.

NRF expects that online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, will increase between 20% and 30% to between $202.5 billion and $218.4 billion, up from $168.7 billion last year. Not included in total sales figure are sales from restaurants, gas stations and auto dealers.

The National Retail Federation delayed the release of its forecast by about a month, citing the uncertainty around the pandemic.