UNF poll: Clinton leads Trump in 4-way race

Lead narrows in two-way race polling

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 4 percentage points among likely voters in Florida, according to a poll released Thursday by the University of North Florida.

The poll, conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at UNF, shows in a four-candidate contest, Clinton leads with 43 percent, Trump followed with 39 percent, Gary Johnson got 6 percent and Jill Stein finished with 3 percent. Nine percent were still undecided.

When asked about just two candidates, Clinton's lead narrowed. 46 percent of respondents said they would vote for Clinton, compared to 44 percent for Trump, if the election were held today.

“There is almost no change from our poll in early October in which Clinton led Trump by 3 percentage points, 41-38, in the four-way contest, but the head-to-head results have tightened considerably,” said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory. “This poll has an even distribution of Democrats and Republicans, however in this election Democrats are outperforming their historical norms in absentee and early voting. If this trend continues through Election Day, Clinton could expand this margin and easily win Florida.”

In the Florida Senate race, Marco Rubio leads Patrick Murphy, 49 percent to 43 percent.

“Rubio is maintaining his six percentage point lead from our poll earlier in the month. Rubio can attribute his lead to support from NPAs and more Democrats willing to cast a ballot for him than Republicans are for Murphy”, said Dr. Binder.

The majority of Florida likely voters, 73 percent, will vote “yes” on Amendment 2, which allows for the medical use of marijuana, according to the poll.

“This is down 4 percentage points from our last poll, but still well above the 60 percent threshold needed for passage. Interestingly, and just like in our last poll, all age groups and parties support Amendment 2,” Dr. Binder noted. 

The Florida statewide poll was conducted Oct. 20, through Tuesday by live callers over the telephone.

Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida’s Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 836 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of error is +/-3.39 percentage points.