How many more storms can we expect in November?

NASA photo of Tropical Storm Eta nearing the west coast of Florida in November 2020.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- – We have pushed into November, and we already have a new storm in the Atlantic.

Martin formed Tuesday morning, and we inherited Lisa which formed on Oct. 31.

In fact, this is only the third time there have been two storms simultaneously in November in the satellite era.

So, how many storms can we expect in November? And is it possible for any of these to affect Florida?

The Final Month

November is the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season.

It is the true “wind down” month of the season, after peak activity in September and October.

Hurricane Climatology for the Tropical Atlantic.

It is harder for tropical systems and hurricanes to develop, as the tropics are becoming less conducive for activity.

Water temperatures, especially in northern areas, are continuing their plunge toward winter levels. Water temperatures are the “fuel” that helps develop and intensify tropical systems.

Frontal boundaries can now make it deep into the tropical Atlantic. These fronts are often accompanied by wind shear that can help rip apart developing systems.

Life is simply harder for tropical waves to develop into tropical storms and hurricanes.

November Climatology

Because of these factors, November tropical systems and hurricanes are somewhat rare. But they can happen.

On average, the tropical Atlantic runs about one named storm in November every year and a hurricane about every other year.

November formation zones of tropical storms and hurricanes.

November systems normally develop in portions of the Atlantic near the Bahamas and the western Caribbean. A second area in the open North Atlantic often breeds subtropical systems, which are hybrid tropical-extratropical storms.

The highest chance for activity is in the early part of the month, with the chance decreasing quickly as we move toward Thanksgiving.

November Florida Systems

While it is very rare, Florida can be hit by tropical storms and even hurricanes in November.

Nine named storms struck the state in November, with two hurricanes hitting the state.

Nearby November storms and hurricanes.

The last November storm to hit the state was Tropical Storm Eta, which made landfall near Cedar Key in 2020. It was also the first November storm to directly impact Jacksonville in recorded history.

Tropical Storm Mitch also was a significant system in Southwest Florida, which made landfall in 1998.

And some may remember Hurricane Kate, a powerful hurricane that slammed the Florida Panhandle in 1985.

Right now, Lisa and Martin will stay well away from Florida, and there are no indications that a system will threaten the state in the long term.

So while unlikely, tropical storms and hurricanes can develop in November, and a few can even hit the Sunshine State.

About the Author:

David Heckard is The Weather Authority's Assistant Chief Meteorologist.