JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – With home prices still elevated and mortgage rates uncertain, many would-be buyers are asking a simple question: Can you afford to buy a home in 2026?
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A local real estate analyst says the answer depends less on national headlines and more on personal finances, neighborhood trends and long-term planning.
For years, Jacksonville’s housing market has been driven by steady population growth, including people relocating from out of state. Tyler and Courtney Rusomaroff moved their growing family from Indiana to Florida just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, with another baby on the way, they’re back in the market looking to upgrade.
“If we were to re-buy our house today at its current valuation and the current market interest rate, it’d almost be unaffordable,” Tyler Rusomaroff said.
That continued demand is one reason prices haven’t fallen as sharply as some buyers expected. According to Dr. Alex Stewart, an independent researcher with The Market Distillery, the average home price in Jacksonville is around $350,000 but that number varies widely depending on location.
“Jacksonville is such a large place,” Stewart said. “There’s a whole lot of Jacksonville where you’ll see $200,000 to $300,000 average prices.”
Renters face a different challenge. Stewart says apartments are currently about $500 cheaper per month than single-family homes. That gap can make it difficult for first-time buyers to save for a down payment.
Nationally, first-time buyers are putting down an average of 10%, the highest level since the 1980s, according to the National Association of Realtors. Still, Stewart says down payment assistance programs are helping some buyers purchase homes with just a few thousand dollars out of pocket.
While some buyers are waiting for prices or rates to drop, Stewart warns that timing the market can backfire.
“Looking forward, the odds of prices continuing to go up are pretty good,” he said. “At the end of the day, you pay the monthly payment, not the sticker price.”
Stewart says deciding whether to buy in 2026 is a deeply personal choice, one that depends on financial readiness and comfort level, not market predictions.
“You have to ask yourself, can I qualify, can I afford it, and can I sleep at night after I buy the house?” he said.
The Rusomaroffs say discipline and compromise are key. They’re focused on staying within their budget, even if that means making tradeoffs.
“The last thing you want to do is overextend yourself so much in a house that you can’t afford to live anymore,” Tyler Rusomaroff said.
His wife, Courtney, remains optimistic, saying more options typically emerge in the spring market.
Stewart adds that while real estate isn’t a get-rich-quick investment, it can be a powerful long-term tool. On average, he says, home prices increase about 5% a year. It’s slow growth, but one that can add up over time.