Only one of the eight remaining starting quarterbacks in the NFL playoffs has won a Super Bowl.
All-Pro Matthew Stafford led the Los Angeles Rams to a Lombardi trophy four years ago. He rallied them to a victory at Carolina last week to set up a divisional round matchup at Chicago on Sunday.
Recommended Videos
The Rams are 3 1/2-road favorites against the Bears on BetMGM Sportsbook. Home teams are the favorites in the other three second-round games.
Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers fell short in the Super Bowl against Kansas City in overtime two years ago.
The Niners eliminated the defending champion Eagles to advance to face Seattle on Saturday night in a battle between NFC West rivals who played for the No. 1 seed in Week 18.
Josh Allen and the Bills have been knocked out of the playoffs by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs four times in the past five years. Buffalo’s comeback win at Jacksonville sends the Bills to Denver on Saturday, aiming to get back to the AFC title game for the second straight year.
Houston’s dominant defense ended Mike Tomlin’s tenure in Pittsburgh and possibly Aaron Rodgers’ career, giving C.J. Stroud another opportunity when the Texans play in New England on Sunday.
Caleb Williams and Drake Maye — first-round picks in 2024 — each won their first playoff game last week. Bo Nix, another first-round pick in that draft class, made the playoffs as a rookie, losing to the Bills. But the Broncos earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed this season.
Pro Picks examines each divisional game:
BUFFALO (13-5) at DENVER (14-3)
Line: Broncos minus 1
Allen is held to a higher standard than other quarterbacks. Critics are ready to blame him for a loss regardless of what transpires in the game. He willed the Bills to victory against the Jaguars and now has to face the league’s No. 2 defense in a rematch from last year’s wild-card round.
Buffalo dominated Denver 31-7 in that one. But these Broncos are the AFC’s top team and are coming off a bye while the Bills are playing six days after Allen got beat up in Jacksonville.
James Cook, the NFL rushing champion, only had 46 yards for Buffalo against the best run defense in the NFL last week. It won’t be easier against Denver, which was second against run. The Broncos also set a franchise record in sacks with 68. They’re stacked on defense with All-Pro defensive lineman Zach Allen, edge rusher Nik Bonitto, cornerback Patrick Surtain and safety Talanoa Hufanga.
Nix led Denver to seven fourth-quarter comebacks. He’s going against the NFL’s top-ranked pass defense.
BRONCOS: 24-22
SAN FRANCISCO (13-5) at SEATTLE (14-3)
Line: Seahawks minus 7 1/2
The depleted 49ers somehow keep finding ways to win while continuing to lose key players. Seven-time Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle tore his Achilles tendon against the Eagles. All-Pro Christian McCaffrey had two touchdown catches, including one from wide receiver Jauan Jennings.
Even without stars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner on defense, San Francisco is a win away from the NFC championship game. The 49ers will face the Seahawks for the third time after each team won on the road. Seattle’s 13-3 victory two weeks locked up the division and home-field advantage.
Sam Darnold joined Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks in NFL history to win 14 games in consecutive seasons. He’s trying for his first career playoff win.
All-Pro wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 119 catches for 1,793 yards and 10 TDs for the Seahawks. Seattle’s stingy defense had three players make second-team All-Pro: defensive tackle Leonard Williams, cornerback Devon Witherspoon and linebacker Ernest Jones.
The 49ers are 8-2 ATS on the road. The Seahawks are 9-8 at home under coach Mike Macdonald, 15-2 on the road.
It’s a tough spot for the 49ers on short rest after a cross-country flight from Philadelphia last Sunday.
SEAHAWKS: 23-20
HOUSTON (13-5) at NEW ENGLAND (15-3)
Line: Patriots minus 3
All-Pro edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and Houston’s top-ranked defense is coming off a dominant performance against Rodgers and the Steelers. The Texans have to do it again against Maye and the Patriots to win their 11th straight game and reach the AFC championship game for the first time in franchise history.
Stroud has to protect the ball better this week. He may not have Pro Bowl receiver Nico Collins, who is in concussion protocol.
The Patriots also relied on defense in their playoff opener, shutting down Justin Herbert and the Chargers in a 16-3 win. They confounded Los Angeles with their scheme and will aim to do the same to Houston.
Maye led the team in rushing with 66 yards but the Patriots will need more from Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. Maye had an outstanding season overall, earning second-team All-Pro honors. Houston will be his biggest challenge yet.
The Texans are 5-4 ATS on the road and the Patriots are 6-4 ATS at home.
UPSET SPECIAL: TEXANS: 17-16
LOS ANGELES RAMS (13-5) at CHICAGO (12-6)
Line: Rams minus 3 1/2
Stafford had to rally the Rams after they blew a 14-0 lead against the Panthers in a game that was not supposed to be close and ended up 34-31. Los Angeles needs a better defensive effort against Williams and the Bears. The Rams have allowed 30 points per game over the past five.
Down 21-3 at halftime against Green Bay, Chicago never flinched and Williams delivered his seventh fourth-quarter comeback win under rookie coach Ben Johnson.
The Bears have had to overcome slow starts quite often this season. They can’t continue to count on coming back and will need a four-quarter effort against the favored Rams.
The Rams are 6-4 ATS on the road and the Bears are 6-3 ATS at home.
BEST BET: RAMS: 30-23
___
Last week: Straight up: 5-1. Against spread: 4-2.
Overall: Straight up: 189-88-1. Against spread: 147-123-8.
Prime time: Straight up: 35-25-1. Against spread: 28-33.
Best Bet: Straight up: 13-6. Against spread: 8-10-1.
Upset Special: Straight up: 14-5. Against spread: 15-4.
___
Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
___
AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl