Analyzing the data: DeSantis wins by largest margin of any Fla. governor in 40 years

Incumbent Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis arrives to speak to supporters at an election night party after winning his race for reelection in Tampa, Fla., Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell) (Rebecca Blackwell, Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Gov. Ron DeSantis handily won his reelection Tuesday night by the largest margin of any Florida governor in 40 years.




Ron DeSantis*(R)
Charlie Crist(D)
98.2% of Precincts Reporting

(5,610 / 5,712)

Using Associated Press VoteCast data, we’re digging into some of the details behind his win.

Votecast is a tool that’s helping us understand voter preferences and trends that explain the outcome of this year’s elections. It’s based on surveys of 3,000 voters in the state leading up to and on election day, and it breaks choices down by things like demographics and political beliefs.

We’ll start by looking at voters age 65 and up.

AP Votecast graphic

According to VoteCast data, men in that age group overwhelmingly went for DeSantis — getting the vote of 66% of the voters surveyed compared to 34% for Crist.

AP Votecast graphic

Among women age 65 and up, the data shows that DeSantis still held a clear advantage. He was the choice of 56%, compared to 43 percent who went for Crist.

Now, we’ll take a look at some younger voters — those age 18 to 29, which include some of whom may have been first-time voters.

AP Votecast graphic

VoteCast data reveals that among men age 18 to 29, DeSantis was a clear preference at 61% compared to 36% for Crist.

AP Votecast graphic

It was a different picture among women age 18 to 29, where the VoteCast data shows they were divided evenly between DeSantis and Crist — 47% each.

AP Votecast graphic

The VoteCast data shows that DeSantis also performed well with Latino voters, who clearly preferred him over Crist. The survey shows 56% chose DeSantis, compared to 43% for DeSantis.

What’s also notable is the success DeSantis had in Miami-Dade County. This heavily populated and diverse county hasn’t turned red for a Republican candidate for governor since 2002 when Jeb Bush won. Miami-Dade was viewed as a bellwether that could signal a GOP landslide.

Desantis’ win there and across the state is also further fueling speculation of a presidential run in 2024.

About the Author:

Tarik anchors the 4, 5:30 and 6:30 p.m. weekday newscasts and reports with the I-TEAM.