Could the GFS model be replaced?

American computer model set to get big upgrade


JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The American weather model, otherwise known as the GFS, will be replaced in the year 2018-2019 time frame.

Michael Ventrice, a meteorologist for The Weather Company and Ph.D in tropical meteorology, sent a tweet Monday morning announcing the news:


I've reached out to Ventrice for additional information and have not heard back as of this entry.


The GFS is a world class weather model but often times lags behind other global models such as the European Model (ECMWF) model.


This was showcased in 2012 during a spectacular failure in predicting Hurricane Sandy.



As seen in the image provided by Wunderground.com, the yellow line represents the GFS (American model) forecast which is way out to sea compared to the European model (ECMWF) showing a landfall in the northeastern United States. A great read about the model differences regarding this storm can be found HERE.


According to Dr. Marshall Shepherd, Director of the University of Georgia's atmospheric sciences program and 2013 American Meteorological Society (AMS) president, the GFS has received several upgrades in the past including legislation passed for upgrades in 2013. His full story can be found HERE.


It's unclear how the new model replacing the GFS will perform against competing models such as the Euro but any improvement to long term forecasting will be very beneificial.