Tropical wave less likely to develop

System could bring rain to South Florida


JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Forecasters say some development of the system is possible through Friday, but it is looking less and less likely that this will become the next Tropical Depression or Storm.

Showers associated with a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea have decreased since yesterday.  Atmospheric conditions as well as land effects should inhibit the development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward for the next several days. This disturbance, however, could still produce an increase in cloudiness and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Greater Antilles and portions of the Bahamas during the next few days.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
  •  Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Although it's too soon to tell if the system will affect Jacksonville, you can count on News4Jax to keep you updated on the strength of the system and whether Florida or the eastern U.S. will be in its path. 

The tropical wave is expected to struggle to stay organized over the next few days as it moves over Puerto Rico and Hispanola- as it interacts with land, it will remain weak. 

By Thursday into Friday the tropical wave will emerge into the Straits of Florida, or the area between the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean, just to the south of the Florida Keys. In this area, conditions like upper level winds and sea surface temperatures may be more conducive to development. 

This means we could see wet weather in South Florida next weekend, but it is too soon to see if it would have any effect on our forecast locally.

Historically, systems that develop that close to the peninsula of Florida do not have enough time to intensify into major storms, they tend to be slower moving, weaker systems which result in heavier rainfall totals but no wind damage. 

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