FLOODING RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS TROPICAL STORM ELSA TRACKS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING TORNADO THREAT ACROSS NE FLORIDA THIS MORNING...
Elsa will track northward just west of Tampa Bay this morning. Dry air was wrapping into the circulation from the WSW, which was limiting convection on the west side of the storm and focusing the deeper convection on the east side of the surface low circulation across the western FL peninsula. Bands of heavy rainfall will progressively build northward toward our southern FL zones and a few cells embedded within the rain bands had periods of circulation.
Elsa is on track to approach the FL Big Bend through sunrise. Elsa will track NNE across the Suwannee River Valley and interior SE GA through the afternoon and evening, exiting to the NE of the Altamaha River basin into the early evening hours, with just trailing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm potential across the local area tonight.
Local hazards and impacts:
1. Flooding Rainfall: This continues to be the greatest widespread threat to the area. as Elsa passes across the area today.
2. Tropical Storm Force Winds: The best potential for sustained tropical storm winds will be closer to I-75 and highway 301.
3. Beach Hazards: A High Rip Current Risk in effect for all local beaches.
4. Isolated Tornadoes/Waterspouts: Expect tornado watches to expand north through the day.
5. Storm surge: Minor impact. Greatest water level rise will focus across coastal SE GA with total inundation of 1-2 ft above normally dry ground.
Afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s today.