JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – At 1100 a.m. the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 49.3 West. The system is moving toward the west near 21 mph and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected into early next week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on Saturday, move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday and then be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression tonight and a tropical storm by Saturday.
Formation chance through 48 hours - 80 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days - 80 percent.
Big picture? I am a little more curious about this than I am Fred. Yes, Fred will likely reintensify back into a tropical storm over this weekend. But, this next system is being picked up by a number of global models that want to try and develop it.
Friday (August 13), oh wow, I just realized there is a Friday the 13th. - This would be the soonest the NHC will upgrade this system
Monday (August 16th) when the system is near Puerto Rico
Thursday (August 19th) when the system is near the Florida East Coast.