JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Thursday was Groundhog Day, the annual tradition of seeing what a groundhog says about the rest of the winter season.
Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, is the epicenter for Groundhog Day -- and the groundhog Punxsutawney Phil is the star.
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How did it start?
One of the earliest known observances of Groundhog Day was in the early 1840s, when an observance occurred in Pennsylvania Dutch Country.
The Pennsylvania Dutch believed a groundhog could forecast what to expect for the remainder of the winter season.
The earliest mention of Punxsutawney observing the holiday was in the town newspaper in 1886.
In 1887, a group made the trip to Gobbler’s Knob just outside the town to consult the groundhog the morning of Feb. 2. The event has been observed annually since then.
Other communities have also gotten into the groundhog spirit.
The Staten Island Zoo in New York City has Staten Island Chuck forecasting.
Marion, Ohio, celebrates Buckeye Chuck.
And Dupont Circle in Washington, D.C., features Potomac Phil.
But Punxsutawney Phil is the most famous groundhog prognosticator and the most celebrated.
The Groundhog Day event in Punxsutawney is by far the biggest annual event in the region. Up to 30,000 people congregate on the morning of Feb. 2 to see what Phil has to say.
How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?
Punxsutawney Phil forecasts in an easy-to-understand way.
If Phil sees his shadow, he returns to his burrow. This means six more weeks of winter in the U.S.
If Phil does not see his shadow, then spring will arrive early.
So how accurate is the groundhog with his long-term prognostications? Not great.
According to the National Weather Service, in the past 10 years, Phil has only been accurate 40% of the time.
Phil did not see his shadow in 2013, and U.S. temperatures were slightly above average.
The groundhog did see his shadow in 2014 and 2015. He was correct in 2014 but incorrect in 2015.
2016 featured Phil not seeing his shadow, and the February and March did feature above-average temps.
Phil did have a rough patch between 2017-2019. He was incorrect all three years.
The last time Phil was accurate was 2020. He did not see his shadow and temperatures were above average for late winter.
2021 and 2022 featured inaccurate forecasts. Both years Phil saw his shadow and both years late winter was above average.
Not looking good for Phil in 2023
Phil’s forecast for 2023 for six more weeks of winter may be hard to verify.
The official temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting for above-average temperatures across the entire U.S. for the month of February.
This includes Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida.
There are also some long-range indications above-average temperatures may be very possible for the month of March.
So while Phil says there’s more winter to come, it may be best to stick with the “real” meteorologists for your long-range planning needs.