Keeping an eye on a possible storm system for Election Day

File photo of a voting sign on Election Day 2022. Jacksonville voters head to the polls next Tuesday. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic, File) (Keith Srakocic, Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- – Voters in Jacksonville head to polls Tuesday for the 2023 municipal election.

The Weather Authority is keeping an eye on the chance of a possible storm system that could impact polling locations.

Possible system?

An unsettled weather pattern is becoming more likely starting this upcoming weekend.

The jet stream is beginning to shift further south, pushing the track of storm system more toward the Southeastern US.

The jet stream is beginning to move south, pushing storm systems toward the area.

A storm system will work through the area on Saturday, bringing showers and possibly a few storms to the area.

The pattern remains active next week, with a second possible system moving in late Monday and Tuesday.

But there is high uncertainty.

Varying models

The major computer models are having a very difficult time resolving this particular complex.

Part of the issue is the storm system will likely begin to come together either right over, or just east of, Florida.

The GFS computer model has been consistent is showing a strong storm system developing and moving across the area.

GFS model from a Wed night run showing heavy rain on Tues.

This scenario would bring the threat for heavy rain and storms areawide.

Recent runs of the GFS are pulling back on the intensity of the system, but rain would still be an issue.

GFS Thu morning run showing lighter rain on Tues.

The other major computer model, the European or Euro, is in an opposite camp.

The latest runs of the Euro do develop a system, but it develops over the Atlantic.

This would keep the heavy rain and storms out to sea, bringing into question how much rain may fall in Jacksonville.

Euro Thu morning run keeping rains east on Tues.

In fact, the morning run of the Euro now keeps the vast majority of the rain out into the Atlantic.

What will happen?

When the major computer models have such huge difference, meteorologists call this a large “spread” between the models.

When the spread is significant like this, it brings serious doubts about the outcome. This creates a low confidence forecast, and meteorologists will wait to see if the computer models can come into better agreement.

As we closer to Election Day, higher-refined computer models will become available. Once meteorologists receive data from these models, confidence will increase greatly in a solution.

For now, we will continue to keep an eye on a potential storm system for Election Day, but serious doubts exist on how strong the system and whether it will even impact Jacksonville for voting day.

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About the Author:

David Heckard is The Weather Authority's Assistant Chief Meteorologist.