If you didn’t hear already, La Niña has ended. While this may be a popular topic amongst meteorologists, you should be excited too since it typically brings a quiet hurricane season.
The switch from La Nina to El Nino this summer could make conditions less likely for hurricane formation at the expense of more hurricanes in the Pacific.
Right now we are experiencing the neutral phase of the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern. It is projected that we will remain neutral throughout the spring and possibly a significant portion of the summer. However, a transition to El Niño is anticipated in late summer through the autumn just in time for the most intense part of hurricane season.
Latest ENSO prediction plume has 64% chance of #ElNino for peak of Atlantic #hurricane season (August-October). El Nino typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in vertical wind shear. Too much shear tears apart hurricanes. pic.twitter.com/czY1KTxJJx
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) March 20, 2023
The Atlantic Hurricane season starts on June 1 and ends on November 30 but the strongest hurricanes develop in late August through early October.
Warm water in the Atlantic is bad for us. It leads to stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic. But warmer than normal Pacific water, El Niño, is a good thing for us.
El Niño, which is the warm phase of ENSO characterized by higher-than-normal temperatures in the eastern Pacific, often leads to more vertical wind shear in the Atlantic hurricane development zone.
Those factors will likely reduce the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season forecasts from Colorado State University in early April. CSU will be the first to provide a forecast followed by the National Hurricane Center’s long-range prediction later in May.