Halfway through the alphabet in named storms, yet none have reached the US

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been full of surprises, defying some expectations while confirming others.

The early predictions

Back in May, both major forecasting powerhouses – NOAA and Colorado State University (CSU) – predicted an above-normal hurricane season. NOAA projected 13 to 19 named storms, including 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes, with a confident 60% chance of an above-normal season.

CSU’s team wasn’t far behind, initially forecasting 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.

What actually happened

As of mid-October, the 2025 season has produced some notable departures from these predictions. The season got off to an unusually late start, with the first storm, Andrea, not forming until June 23, the latest first storm since 2014.

So far, we’ve seen:

• 12 named storms
• 4 hurricanes
• 3 major hurricanes

The season’s standout storms included Hurricane Erin, which reached Category 5 status in August, and Hurricane Humberto, which became the season’s second Category 5 hurricane in late September.

The plot twist

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the 2025 season was its unusual timing. After Hurricane Erin in August, the Atlantic went eerily quiet for nearly a month, right during what’s typically the peak of hurricane season, September 10.

This lull had forecasters scratching their heads, as it occurred despite favorable conditions, including warm ocean temperatures and neutral El Niño conditions.

Why the differences?

The season’s different pattern can be attributed to several factors. While forecasters correctly anticipated warm Atlantic waters and neutral El Niño conditions, they didn’t predict the high Caribbean wind shear that developed, which helped suppress storm formation during the traditional peak period.

Looking ahead

With about six weeks left in the official hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, there’s still time for more storms to develop.

However, the season has already provided valuable lessons about the challenges of long-range forecasting, even with today’s advanced technology.

Things to keep an eye on:

1. Ocean Temperatures: The tropical Atlantic continues to maintain above-average temperatures, providing ample fuel for potential storm development.
2. Wind Patterns: The Caribbean wind shear that suppressed activity earlier in the season is expected to weaken, potentially opening a window for late-season storm development.