Colorado State University (CSU) has released its initial forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a below-average season with 13 hurricanes.
A total of 13 named storms are predicted, with 2 of those being major hurricanes.
This forecast is primarily driven by the observation of the current weak La Niña shifting to El Niño in the next few months. Sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal in the western tropical Atlantic but cool to the east.
An increasing El Niño produces more vertical wind shear, which is defined by the National Weather Service as the change in wind speed or direction with increasing altitude, a critical factor in meteorology that dictates the structure and intensity of thunderstorms and tropical cyclones.
High vertical shear can break apart hurricanes, while moderate shear often creates the rotating updrafts required for severe, long-lived thunderstorms.
The next updates from CSU are June 10, July 8, and Aug. 5.
Comparison to the 2025 Forecast
In comparing CSU’s initial 2025 forecast with their predictions for the 2026 season, CSU originally predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
NOAA originally predicted 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.
Final 2025 numbers: 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
The biggest factor of 2025, since there wasn’t any U.S. landfall, was the three Category 5 storms: Erin, Humberto, and Melissa. Read the final 2025 recap NHC report here.
Exceptional drought continues to plague our region
The weekly drought monitor update was released on Thursday, April 9, as well. Even with the rainfall over the past three days, the drought monitor shows increased coverage in the exceptional range.
Moving more west and north, the exceptional area now includes all of Ware County, portions of Charlton County in Southeast Georgia, and almost the entirety of Baker and Union counties in Northeast Florida. All of Columbia County continues to be in the exceptional range.
Currently, Jacksonville is at a deficit of 20+ inches of rain after the 2025 tropical season keep rainfall totals below normal.