JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – I’m watching the tropics today as hurricane season kicks off. NOAA has put out its outlook, and the news is actually pretty reassuring for us in Jacksonville and along the Atlantic coast.
According to NOAA, there’s about a 55% chance that this hurricane season will be below normal, with just a 10% chance of it being above normal.
We’re looking at a forecast of eight to 14 named storms forming, of which three to six could become hurricanes. Out of those, one to three may reach major hurricane status.
While those numbers are still worth keeping an eye on, it’s definitely not pointing to an overactive season.
Now, I know everyone’s wondering, why do the numbers look a little lower this year? We’re making a switch from a La Niña to an El Niño pattern, which is expected to boost wind shear over the Atlantic. That can make it tougher for hurricanes to form and strengthen.
Plus, I’m tracking the possibility of Saharan dust pushing off Africa in the coming months—that tends to put a lid on storm activity, too. Still, sea surface temperatures are running warm, which is always a wild card for development.
For now, the Atlantic is calm, and Exact Track 4D shows the next seven days looking quiet.
Fog and fire risk start the day
Over at JAX airport this morning, it’s feeling sticky and soupy.
Temperatures are at 73 degrees, but it feels more like 70 if you’re standing outside. Visibility in some spots has dropped to just about a mile, especially around Waycross, so it’s a good morning to take it slow and keep those low beams on if you’re heading out.
I know fog isn’t anyone’s favorite driving condition, and you’ll need a little extra patience on the roads. The fog will clear up as the day goes on, but until then, give yourself extra time and be sure to drive safely.
Even though our area saw some recent rain, the fire danger has not let up. It’s really important not to toss lit cigarettes out your window or light fires outdoors.
Conditions are still dry enough to start a problem quickly, so let’s all help keep the community safe.
Short-term forecast
Looking out for the rest of today and into the week, nothing big is brewing in the Atlantic right now—so our part of the tropics is expected to behave. I am, however, keeping a watch on some showers approaching I-75.
Want to share what’s happening in your neighborhood? If you snap a great weather photo or video, send it my way through SnapJAX at news4jax.com/snapjax/. You might just see it on-air or online!