NOAA calls for higher chance of hurricanes for remainer of season

Hurricane update expects 60% chance of above normal season

NOAA's mid-season update is more bullish for increasing tropical activity for the remainder of the hurricane season.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – We are heading into the busiest part of the hurricane season, but so far this year the tropics have been anything but sleepy.

On Wednesday, NOAA issued a mid-season update for its 2017 hurricane season outlook. Forecasters are now predicting a higher likelihood of an above-normal activity based on warmer than average Atlantic water temperatures and the unlikely resurgence of an El Niño in the Pacific.

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These factors increase their predictions for named storms and major hurricanes. The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010.

Forecasters have increased the chance for an above active season from 45% to 60%, with 14-19 named storms (increased from the May predicted range of 11-17) and 2-5 major hurricanes (increased from the May predicted range of 2-4). A prediction for 5-9 hurricanes remains unchanged from the first outlook in May. 

An average season has  six hurricanes, three being major hurricanes, and 12 named storms altogether. So far during the 2017 season we have had six named storms. The first, Arlene, formed in April. 

NOAA is a bit more bullish than Colorado State forecasters, who predict this 2017 season will be 5% less active than last year.

Tropical Storms Franklin may should become a hurricane before making landfall Wednesday night and Invest 99L may develop into Tropical Storms Gert this weekend.

 


About the Author:

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.