Tropical trouble this weekend?

Hurricane Center increasing odds for Gulf of Mexico storm development

By John Gaughan - Chief meteorologist

Make it 80% likelihood (and increasing) that a sub-tropical or tropical storm named Nestor forms in the Gulf of Mexico

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - Well it may be getting late in the 2019 Hurricane Season, but there maybe one more system that develops before the end of this week. All eyes will be on the Western Gulf of Mexico as there are growing number of Global Forecast Models that suggest we will see an area of low pressure form and then move quickly off to the northeast. 

Should this happen, we, here in Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia could see significant heavy rains. Timing is likely to be late on Saturday through Monday.

A large area of late season tropical moisture is floating westward across the Yucatan Peninsula and about to enter the Bay of Campeche.  This Bay has very warm water and will help to organize any low pressure that could develop.

Forecast models indicate the earliest an area of low pressure could develop will be on Friday and do so as a sub-tropical system (not purely tropical). By Saturday, the system will quickly head northeastward and possibly make landfall by early Sunday morning near Mobile Bay (Pensacola, Florida). This would be more of a rain maker than a wind maker. The highest wind would most likely be just near tropical storm strength. 

If this happens, the system would be named Nestor.

Rainfall would be the greatest threat, with potentially up to 5" of rain for the Panhandle of Florida, but locally we could see up to 2-3" over a two-day period (Sunday and Monday).

Beautiful weather reaches Jacksonville on Thursday!

 

Low pressure begins to form near Brownsville, Texas on Friday.

Possible sub-tropical (or tropical) storm will develop and move towards Mobile Bay (give take about 100 miles of the coast).

By Sunday, moisture is just plowing into North Florida and South Georgia. Whether or not a storm develops, we will likely have heavier rains around the area on Sunday.

 

 

 

 

 

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