Waiting for the rainy season

If it starts early, expect it to last longer

By Mark Collins - Meteorologist

If our rainy pattern sets in earlier than June 7th it will likely be a wetter than normal summer.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - Figuring out if the upcoming summer will be a soaker could be predicted by watching how soon Florida's rainy season begins.

The implications are important regarding the supply of freshwater in Florida which primarily stems from the summer rainy season.
 
An early start to the rainy season suggests it will last longer resulting in more rainfall accumulation according to researcher Vasubandhu Misra at the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies in Tallahassee, FL.

The onset to the rainy season is not marked by a few random days of rain, rather the event is distinguished by the spectacular arrival of consecutive heavy daily downpours. 

Between Jacksonville and Miami the average start is June 7th and demises October 6th. 

Dr. Misra’s research shows start of the rainy season literally flips on and off.  When rain totals jump from .16 inches a day prior to onset to around .47 inches on the day the rainy season commences. 

Strong seasonal rain cycles are associated with similar robust seasonal changes in winds and sea surface temperatures which  increases the humidity over the pensunila. 

Certain ocean circulation patterns both in the Gulf and off the coast of Jacksonville can foster  prolonged rainy seasons.

So if we start getting frequent heavy rain before the first week of June, get ready for a soaking summer.
 

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