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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast north of Conakry, then curves southwestward to 02N21W. An ITCZ continues from 02N21W across 00N29W to northwest of Fortaleza, Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 03N between 10W and 16W, and north of the ITCZ within 200 nm of 04N30W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen farther west from 00N to 03N between 38W and 48W.

Gulf Of America

A robust upper-level trough stretching southward from the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, a surface ridge reaching southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico is dominating much of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present northwest and north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf through Sat, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with occasional strong north of the Yucatan Peninsula, in the northwestern Gulf and Florida Straits. Seas are expected to be moderate during this period. On Sun, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf and then move southeastward through early next week, bringing strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas.

Caribbean Sea

Latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer data reveal fresh to strong NE to E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft at the south-central basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE trades are also noted at the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft at the lee of Cuba and south of Hispaniola. Seas in and near the Windward Passage are from 6 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a surface ridge near 30N and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE to E winds along with moderate to rough seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Fri night.

Atlantic Ocean

A deep layer trough near 24N59W is generating scattered moderate convection from 20N to 27N between 50W and 61W. A surface trough is triggering widely scattered showers near the northwest Bahamas and southeastern Florida. A broad 1015 mb low pressure is causing patchy showers southwest of the Canary Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A large 1036 mb high at the north Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft north of 20N between 45W and the Bahamas, except gentle to moderate SE winds with 4 to 7 ft seas off northeastern Florida. Farther east from 20N to 31N between 35W and 45W, moderate NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft in large NE swell exist. For remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail from 00N to 20N west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure at the north Atlantic will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas mainly south of 28N, including the central and southeast Bahamas through this weekend. Afterward, the high is going to weaken which should allow both winds and seas to gradually subside early next week. On Mon night and Tue, a cold front exiting the southeastern U.S. Will cause building winds and seas off northeastern Florida.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan