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Tropical Waves

A far eastern tropical wave is near 23W from 13N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 07N between 23W and 29W.

An eastern tropical wave is near 46W from 15N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 09N between 44W and 52W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 58W from 16N southward, and moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found from 06N to 10N between 53W and 60W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 15N southward, and moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found over the northern coast of western Panama, and nearby Caribbean waters.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward to 05N33W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N33W to 05N45W to the northern coast of Suriname. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up south of the monsoon trough from 11N to 13N west of 19W. No significant convection is evident near the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near the northern coast of eastern Panama, and nearby Caribbean waters.

Gulf Of America

An modest upper-level trough extends southwestward from the northeastern Gulf to beyond near Veracruz, Mexico. This feature is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the western Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high at the east- central Gulf continues to dominate the Gulf, with light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas across the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure south of the Florida Panhandle will dominate the Gulf through the weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Wed night, then mainly fresh afterward. A moderate pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western and south-central Gulf through early this morning before diminishing to between gentle and moderate by late this morning. Slight to moderate seas will be with these winds. Light winds along with slight seas will prevail over the eastern Gulf through the week.

Caribbean Sea

A broad Atlantic Ridge near 29N continues to support a robust trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Convergent trades are producing scattered moderate convection south of the Cayman Islands, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Strong with locally near-gale NE to E winds and seas of 12 to 14 ft are present at the south-central basin, while fresh to strong E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas exist at the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the Atlantic Ridge of high pressure will prevail north of the area near 29N. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds, and moderate to rough seas in the central basin through Wed morning. For Wed afternoon and night, fresh to strong trades should be confined to the south-central basin before expanding northward again Thu through the weekend. These winds are expected to peak at near-gale force offshore of northwestern Colombia, south of 14N during the nighttime and early morning hours, except for Wed night and Thu morning. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly. Moderate to fresh trades with rough seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles until Wed morning, then moderate winds and seas afterward. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of the Caribbean through the week.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper-level low near 27N60W is triggering isolated thunderstorms 25N to 29N between 60W and 65W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. An expansive surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high at the central Atlantic near 33N41W across 31N40W to beyond southern Florida. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE to SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft, north of 23N between 35W and the Florida east coast/Bahamas. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and 6 to 9 ft seas are seen. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the western Atlantic through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected off northern Hispaniola each night through Sat night. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Posted 14 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan