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Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from 06N to 12N and between 30W and 37W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over northeastern Venezuela and the Lesser Antilles.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active S of 15N and W of 75W, including over Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and dives southwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure near 16N30W and then to 09N46W. Scattered moderate convection is active off the coast of Africa, generally from 04N to 11N and E of 20W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front is analyzed along much of the northern Gulf coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across much of the Gulf N of 24N. The Atlantic ridge extends east to west along roughly 23/24N, from the Florida Straits to the coast of Tamaulipas in northeast Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh SW to W winds north of 25N where seas are 3-5 ft, and gentle to moderate breezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate winds through the week. The exceptions will be fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period, as well as the far northern Gulf, where a cold front approaching the coast will help to induce moderate to fresh W to SW winds through Mon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over the eastern Gulf, and over the central Gulf N of 25N between 87W and 92W early this week as a mid to upper-level trough and a cold front approach the Gulf coast.

Caribbean Sea

The westward-building subtropical high pressure system positioned over the central Atlantic forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are impacting the NW Caribbean waters as well as near the Windward Passage as they propagate southwestward off of Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin through much of the week. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, near 82W is helping to enhance thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean. The wave will move inland Central America late tonight into early Mon.

Atlantic Ocean

Favorable upper-level conditions and abundant tropical moisture combine to produce scattered moderate convection from Cuba across the Bahamas to Bermuda. Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 33N56W, supporting fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft north of 28N and west of 75W, as well as along the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Another area of fresh to strong NE winds is confirmed by scatterometer data in between the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the remaining tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic to South Florida will change little through Tue, then lift N to central Florida on Wed and N of 31N on Thu. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a cold front moving through the southeastern U.S. Will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, along with scattered thunderstorms over the majority of the area. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams