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Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between an Atlantic Ridge and the Colombian Low will cause trade winds off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela to peak at minimal gale-force Fri night through early Sat morning, and possible on Sat night again. Seas under these winds are expected to range from 12 to 15 ft north of Colombia and 4 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.

Tropical Waves

A newly analyzed far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from 10N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 08N between 23W and 31W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 16N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 15N between 38W and 48W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from Haiti southward to the Colombia-Venezuela border. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the border.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from 19N southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into Costa Rica. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present over Honduras and Nicaragua.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambia coast, then curves southwestward to 07N19W. An ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 04N24W, then from 04N25W westward to near the coastal border of French Guiana and Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is evident near the monsoon trough, near the coast of Gambia and southern Senegal. Similar convection is noted up to 200 nm along either side of the second ITCZ segment.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection in the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and western Panama.

Gulf Of America

A diurnal trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the southeastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a surface ridge running southwestward from a 1018 mb high at the northeastern Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico dominates much of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are found at the northeastern Gulf, and the western Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas exist at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf into early next week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the far northwestern Gulf through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the east- central Gulf Mon night and Tue.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning.

Convergent trade winds are occurring near Jamaica and near the southern coast of Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the basin. Tight pressure gradient between a broad Atlantic Ridge and the Colombian Low supports strong to near-gale NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong easterly trades and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate the north-central and part of the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are noted at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas near Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds, and moderate to locally very rough seas in the central basin through early next week. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast in the remainder of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper-level shortwave near 31N61W is enhancing scattered moderate convection north of 25N between 55W and 65W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A broad Atlantic Ridge stretching west-southwestward from a 1032 mb high near 34N47W across 31N68W to beyond central Florida is supporting gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas, north of 25N between 35W and the coast of Floria/southern Georgia. From 07N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to locally fresh ENE to E trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned ridge will continue to dominate the western Atlantic through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, each late afternoon and night through Fri night. A nearly north-to-south aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will shift westward across the region Fri through Sun, reaching near 70W by Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night.

Posted 1 hour, 35 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan