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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front moving across the Texas and NE Mexican coastal waters early this morning will move SE across the entire basin today through Mon evening. Strong reinforcing arctic high pressure building behind the front is expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night, gale force winds over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night through Mon morning, and gales over the waters near Veracruz Mon morning through around midnight Mon. Seas are expected to quickly build across the basin later today, and reaching 16 or 17 ft over the SW Gulf late on Mon. Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves SE into the NW Caribbean and high pressure builds across the region. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from equatorial Africa westward into the Atlantic near 06.5N11W to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 00.5N29W to 01.5N41W to 00N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 03N between 03W and 16W. Similar convective activity is from 03N to 11N between 25W and 51W.

Gulf Of America

A weak 1009 mb low is analyzed near 27.5N94.5W, with a stationary front extending northeastward into the central LA coast and western Vermilion Bay, while a cold front extends from the low S-SW into the NE Mexico coast just N of Tampico. A warm front also extends across the far NE Gulf waters of the Florida Big Bend. Scattered showers are seen along and E of the cold front and stationary front. Recent derived satellite imagery also shows fog banks forming between the coast and both aforementioned frontal boundaries in the W and NE Gulf, so mariners should be aware for the potential for reduced visibility in these areas. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh SE winds and 2-5 ft across much of the basin ahead of the front. Immediately behind the front, winds are quickly veering from the NW at fresh to strong speeds, with seas are building to 5 to 7 ft per local buoy data.

For the forecast, the low pressure along the cold front will track NE into Louisiana today, allowing the cold front to move SE across the entire basin today through Mon evening. Strong reinforcing arctic high pressure building behind the front is expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night, gale force winds over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night through Mon morning, and gales over the waters near Veracruz Mon morning through around midnight Mon. Seas are expected to quickly build across the basin today and tonight. Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves SE into the NW Caribbean and high pressure builds settles across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to keep alert with the latest forecasts.

Caribbean Sea

Atlantic high pressure is centered over the eastern Atlantic and extends a broad ridge westward along 28N-29N to near 60W. This pattern is producing a modest pressure gradient across the basin this morning. The most recent satellite scatterometer data indicated moderate to locally fresh trades across most of the basin with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for fresh to strong trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft near the coast of Colombia. Fresh trade winds across the Tropical Atlantic and into the Lesser Antilles is maintaining large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic, and spreading seas of 6 to 8 ft through the Atlantic Passages of the Lesser Antilles, and 4 to 7 ft in the lee of the islands. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail in the NW Caribbean. Scattered light to moderate showers dot the waters N of 13N east of 72W.

For the forecast, broad high pressure over the eastern Atlantic will maintain a ridge westward into the central Atlantic to produce mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Tue, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside into early next week, with seas lingering to 8 ft through early Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras by late Tue into Wed, weakening to a shearline Thu. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of America.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from just S of Bermuda westward to a weak 1020 mb low just off shore of Jacksonville, and then inland across north Florida just S of Daytona Beach, FL. A surface trough is analyzed E of the front and runs from 31N60W to 27N73W. Another surface tough is analyzed from 31N57W to 23N65W, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near both troughs. Fresh to strong E to SE winds generally prevail north of 29N and west of 65W to 80W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft in mixed N and E-SE swell.

High pressure of 1028 mb located W of the Madeira Islands near 30N21W dominates the remainder of the forecast region, extending a broad ridge westward along 28N-29N to near 60W. Under this weather pattern, a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft is noted from 05N to 25N and E of 40W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. In the far east Atlantic, large lingering N swell with seas of 12 to 16 ft persists near the Canary Islands and offshore Morocco. Moderate to fresh trades are occurring S of 22N and W of 40W, including the Caribbean Passages, where seas are 7 to 10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere within the ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop over the NW forecast waters late this afternoon through early Mon in advance of a strong arctic cold front that is expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Mon morning. SW winds to near gale force will develop just N of the area early on Mon. The front will reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and to west Cuba Mon evening, from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 31N50W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue afternoon. The frontal boundary will begin to dissipate on Thu as another strong cold front moves out across the western forecast waters, reaching 31N60W to the SE Bahamas by Thu evening.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling