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Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Southwestern Gulf: A broad area of low pressure just offshore of eastern Mexico continues to produce some shower and thunderstorm activity. While this system has become better organized since yesterday, marginal environmental conditions will probably prevent significant development before the low moves inland over eastern Mexico by Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday or Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but conditions there are also expected to be only marginally conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 20 percent.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Blake
Tropical Waves
A tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic along 19W, south of 15N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 09N between 13N and 29W.
Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.
A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W-53W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is seen near the trough axis.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W-79W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is occurring near this wave along the coast of Panama, while scattered moderate to strong convection is seen along the coast and coastal waters of Colombia, in the eastern Pacific.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N26W. The ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 05.5N33W, then resumes from 04.5N36W to the coast of Brazil near 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted near Africa from 01N to 05.5N E of 12W. Elsewhere, only a few showers are seen near the ITCZ.
Gulf Of America
A broad area of low pressure extending from low to mid levels of the atmosphere continues across the SW Gulf this morning, from the central Bay of Campeche to offshore of NE Mexico, and is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, especially south of 25N and west of 91W. Satellite imagery and local upper air data show strong SE low level winds to 35 kt moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and across the eastern side of this circulation. At the surface, a tight pressure gradient between this low and the Atlantic ridge extending into the NE Gulf sustain fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to locally rough seas to 9 ft south of 26N and west of 88W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, the low pressure system will shift NW through the weekend and move inland over northeastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tue and Wed while interacting with a frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, through Sun night. Atlantic high pressure will build westward into the Gulf Tue and Wed to promote moderate to fresh southerly winds basin-wide.
Caribbean Sea
A few clusters of moderate convection continue across the NW Caribbean this morning, N of 18N to the south coast of Cuba, and into the approach to the Windward Passage, as divergence aloft sustains this activity. Strong convection across interior portions of the Gulf of Honduras extends from similar activity associated with the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends N of the area and across Florida along about 27N, and supports fresh to near gale- force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central and SE Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the NE Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place through Sun to support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the Gulf of Honduras and northwestern Caribbean W of 85W through Sat night. The ridge will reorganize along 60W Sun night through Mon then shift slowly NE through midweek, leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.
Atlantic Ocean
A stationary front extends from 31N37W to 28.5N43W, followed by a surface trough to 30N52W. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that extends across central Florida, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 22N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are found north of 14N an2d east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place through Sun. The ridge will then reorganize along about 60W Sun night and Mon, then shift slowly NE Tue through Wed. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling
