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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A trailing cold front will move off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it exits to the southeast of the basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf that will support winds to gale- force near Veracruz Fri night into early on Sat, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the northern Gulf following the front.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight, but stall early Fri and lift north of the area through late Fri ahead of a complex low pressure system moving into the Carolina coast. This system will send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters N of about 23.5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to reach from near 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from bear 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters N and E of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these conditions.

Of note: With the aforementioned cold front, a potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far south as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, and continues southwestward to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 02N35W and to 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is observed south of 05N and between 23W and 40W.

Gulf Of America

See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning, expected to begin on Sat.

High pressure dominates the Gulf of America, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, a trailing cold front will move off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it exits to the southeast of the basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf that will support winds to gale- force near Veracruz Fri night into early on Sat, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the northern Gulf following the front.

Caribbean Sea

A dissipating stationary front extends from the Windward Passage to just west of Jamaica and southwestward to near coastal Nicaragua. A few showers are noted near this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are found south of 19N and in the lee of Cuba. Seas behind the front are slight to moderate. Meanwhile, fresh to near gale-force NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring in the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are evident in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the front may briefly start moving southeastward as a weakening cold front Fri into Sat. This will happen ahead of an unusually strong cold front that is forecast to move into the northwestern Caribbean Sat morning and move southeastward, merge with the old lingering front from eastern Cuba to western Panama Sat evening. The merged front will reach from eastern Hispaniola to the northwest coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Colombia by early Tue. Strong to near gale-force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning in the W Atlantic, expected to begin late Sat.

A stationary front extends from 31N49W to 23N63W and to northern Haiti. Some showers are noted near this boundary. High pressure dominates much of the SW N Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 25N and west of the aforementioned front. Moderate to locally strong W-NW winds and seas of 8-13 ft are found north of 28N and west of the aforementioned front to 75W. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 10-13 ft are evident north of 27N and east of the front to 38W.

The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered over the NE Atlantic that extends southeastward to Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are evident south of 20N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and rough seas are occurring from 13N to 25N and east of 35W. Large northerly swell spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Rough to very rough seas are reaching the Madeira and Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight, but stall early Fri and lift north of the area through late Fri ahead of a complex low pressure system moving into the Carolina coast. This system will send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters N of about 23.5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to reach from near 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from bear 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters N and E of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these conditions.

Posted 1 hour, 29 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado