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Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between strong north-central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong trades along with rough seas over the south-central Caribbean Sea through the end of the week. Ongoing gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia will diminish to strong to near gale-force speeds later this morning. Rough seas to 13 ft with the strongest winds will subside to 8 to 9 ft by this afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic with axis near 23W, from 00N to 10N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly confined to the southern wave environment near the ITCZ from 04S to 04N between 15W and 30W.

A tropical wave has moved inland Guyana with axis near 57W S of 10N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. The wave is supporting moderate convection offshore Suriname and Guyana.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 11N16W and continues SW to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 04N22W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 02N24W to 01S45W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 30W and 45W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front is moving off the Texas coast this morning along with heavy showers and thunderstorms affecting mainly the NW basin. Gusty winds and rough seas are likely along with low visibility. The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic extends westward into the eastern Gulf, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas ahead of the front, except for moderate to locally fresh SE winds off the Yucatan Peninsula due to a surface trough moving nightly into the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and stretch from near Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche Tue, then stall over the far SE basin Wed. Ahead of the front, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse tonight offshore the Yucatan Peninsula as a surface trough moves to the Bay of Campeche. Looking ahead, the tail of a cold front will move across the NE Gulf Wed night and move E of the basin on Thu. Surface ridging will build and dominate the remainder forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section above for information about gale conditions offshore Colombia.

Dry weather conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea. The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to near gale- force trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a tight gradient between strong high pressure centered over the north-central Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Fri night, except Wed when winds are forecast to be moderate to fresh during the day. Pulsing gales offshore Colombia will diminish to strong speeds later this morning while fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are forecast across the eastern Caribbean through the period with moderate or weaker winds prevailing elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

Divergence aloft and abundant moisture inflow from the Gulf of America result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters N of the Bahamas and W of 70W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas south of 25N. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is expected to reach the waters off NE Florida by this evening and move eastward while weakening Tue and Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate to rough seas possibly will follow the front, affecting mainly the offshores N of 29N before the boundary weakens and conditions improve Tue night. Along and ahead of the front, thunderstorms, some strong, are expected. Starting mid-week, high pressure building over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh SE-S winds and moderate to rough seas E of 70W ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge off NE Florida Thu morning.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos