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Tropical Waves

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 12N between 35W and 43W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 19N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 15N between 60W and 66W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 20N and west of 81W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Western Sahara near 26N15W and dives southward to a 1009 mb low pres near 17N20W and then continues southwestward to 09N42W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 13N and east of 21W.

Gulf Of America

The western portion of the subtropical ridge extends into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to locally moderate seas. Divergence aloft associated with an upper- level trough north of the area is producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters, while generally dry conditions are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend and into next week as an upper-level trough drops southward toward the Gulf states as a very moist and unstable airmass prevails over region.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge north of the basin forces strong to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas across much of the central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed peak winds to 33 kt. An altimeter pass from a few hours ago indicated seas up to 16 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the lee of Cuba.

Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, an upper-level trough over the NE Caribbean generates scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the nearby islands and coastal waters. Diurnal heating is likely to support some thunderstorm activity developing over parts of Cuba and Hispaniola later this afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface trough just east of the Lesser Antilles will aid in the formation of showers and thunderstorms later today and tomorrow, especially across the Leeward Islands.

For the forecast, the overnight gale-force winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela have diminished to near gale-force winds, however, very rough seas remain offshore of Colombia. These seas will slowly subside through Sat. Elsewhere across the central Caribbean, fresh to strong trades will begin to diminish in coverage beginning and through the weekend. Fresh trades elsewhere south S of about 18N will also diminish in coverage through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then to fresh speeds for the remainder of the period.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper-level trough north of the SW North Atlantic is producing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N and west of 69W. Similar upper-level dynamics also support a few showers in the north-central Atlantic and north of Puerto Rico.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge situated over the central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures associated with the frontal boundary draped across the SE US and into the western Atlantic sustain moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas north of 26N and west of 60W. In the remainder of the basin, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are prevalent. The exception is south of the monsoon trough and east of 30W, where moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from near 30N55W to the Straits of Florida will lift N to near 28N by Sun and change little into early next week. The gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 26N and west of 70W through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado