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TRACKING THE TROPICS
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TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Blake
Tropical Waves
A tropical wave is along 29W from 06N to 17N, moving west at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 08N to 13N between 25W and 32W.
A tropical wave is along 44W from 08N to 18N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.
A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 84W, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from eastern Panama to northeast Costa Rica.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 23N16W and continues southwestward to 09N30W to 06N45W. The ITCZ extends from 06N45W to 08N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 35W and 45W.
Gulf Of America
A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 27N89W. A trough is parallel to the coast of Veracruz in the southwest Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas over the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. A mid- and upper- level trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms active over the southeast Gulf and the west- central Gulf.
For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle to occasionally moderate winds, and slight seas through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Pulses of fresh winds will occur west of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally strong tonight, along with moderate seas.
Caribbean Sea
See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection in the basin.
Fresh to strong E trade winds and 8 to 10 ft seas persist across the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean, between high pressure north of area and lower pressure over northern South America. Moderate E winds and 3-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support strong trades in the south-central basin, and as the gradient tightenings into the weekend and into early next week, winds will increase to near gale. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times this weekend. Fresh winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds and seas will prevail.
Atlantic Ocean
A mid- and upper-level trough between Bermuda and eastern Cuba is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas. A few showers and thunderstorms are also active along a surface trough extending from 26N66W to 20N68W. Fresh E winds and rough seas are ongoing on the northern end of this trough, specifically from 24N to 26N between 62W and 67W. In the far NE Atlantic, strong to near- gale N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails, with gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned mid- and upper- level trough along the SE U.S. Coast will keep scattered thunderstorms ongoing offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas through at least tonight. A westward moving surface trough will pass north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into tonight, then approach the Bahamas Thu before shifting west of the area by late Fri, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas. Winds may pulse to fresh to strong at times from north of Hispaniola to the Windward Passage. Otherwise, weak ridging settles across the northern and central waters during the upcoming weekend and into early next week, bringing tranquil marine conditions.
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen
