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Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 28W S of 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the southern half of the wave S of 10N.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W and S of 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the southern half of the wave S of 10N.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 02-17N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the southern half of the wave S of 10N.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W, south of 19N, moving W at at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are along the wave axis.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point between the tropical waves to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ and W of 30W.

Gulf Of America

The subtropical ridge extends across the Florida Peninsula and across the northern Gulf to the coast of Texas. Farther south, a weak trough is positioned over the Bay of Campeche. This pattern is supporting fresh NE winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to moderate breezes are observed elsewhere. Seas are generally 1-3 ft across the basin. Scattered moderate convection is active over the eastern Gulf at the base of an upper trough that extends over the Mississippi River valley.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern across the Gulf region as a ridge continues to dominate the basin. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast over the western Gulf with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds reaching fresh to strong speeds off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Fri. These winds are the result of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight to moderate seas are expected basin-wide.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge extending north of the area across the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras, with strong E winds noted off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere except 1-3 ft in the far northwest Caribbean. A mid to upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic across eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and toward Nicaragua. Upper level divergent flow along with convergent lower level trade wind flow is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Fri night. The aerial extent of these winds will increase tonight into Mon as the Atlantic ridge continues to build westward. By Wed, the fresh to strong winds are expected to extend across most of the east and central Caribbean. Expect winds to reach near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela from tonight through Fri. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast at night tonight through Tue.

Atlantic Ocean

The subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic north of 20N, and is anchored by 1025 mb high pressure centered near 28N38W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along a surface trough analyzed from 31N53W to 29N72W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas along and west of the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas east and south of the ridge axis.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to build westward across central Florida into the eastern Gulf of America early this week. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Strong winds, with moderate to rough seas, are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, from tonight through Fri.

Posted 17 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era