Go to the WJXT homepage

Special Features

Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1031 mb Azores High and lower pressures over northern Africa currently support strong to near gale-force NE winds between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco. These winds were confirmed by scatterometer data from 0200 UTC tonight. Winds are expected to remain at or near gale-force for the next few hours before diminishing later tonight. Accordingly, Meteo France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir Zone until 26/03 UTC.

For more details, please refer to Meteo-France's website at: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 45-46W, from 08N to 22N, moving W at 12-20 kt. A broad mid level cyclonic circulation can be seen in PW animations. Convection near this wave is discussed in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

A tropical wave is moving into the eastern Caribbean with axis along 62W-63W, moving W at 15-20 kt. An upper level low is centered to the NW and is shearing associated convection to the E of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 55W and 61W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has been added to the 0000 UTC surface map, along 73W, moving westward at 15-20 kt, and is well depicted in PW animations. The wave is moving through a zone of dry and sinking air across the central basin, and no associated convection is seen over water at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave previously along 75W is racing westward and has nearly merged with the tropical wave ahead of it across Central America along about 90W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues to 12N23W to 10N37W. The ITCZ extends from 09N38W to 07.5N44W to 05.5N54W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is exiting Africa from 10N to 17N E of 20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 08.5N to 14N between 20W and 27W, and 08N to 12.5N between 29W and 40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11.5N between 40W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered over the NE Gulf near 28.5N88W. Evening thunderstorms across central Florida have shifted westward to the coast near Tampa Bay and adjacent coastal waters within 60 nm and are weakening quickly. An upper level low is centered over the Bay of Campeche N of 20N, and is supporting a cluster of moderate to strong convection shifting westward off the Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern Bay of Campeche. The surface high is promoting light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin N of 21N, where seas are 3 ft or less. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are occurring along the W coast of the Yucatan, in associated with the evening thermal trough there. Seas there area 3 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the Gulf will promote gentle to moderate winds and slight seas to the basin through early next week. Fresh winds will continue offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and then will pulse to moderate N winds each evening and night through Tue.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate convection dots the waters of the NW Caribbean from western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel southward across the Gulf of Honduras, to just offshore of NE Nicaragua. This activity is occurring behind a tropical wave now across the eastern Pacific along about 90W.

The pressure gradient between low pressure over NW Colombia and the western Atlantic ridge extending into central Florida is forcing fresh to strong trades over the central to SW Caribbean, generally S of 16N, where seas are 6 to 9 ft between 72W and 80W. Across the eastern basin, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds prevail, with moderate seas of 4 to 6 ft. Across the NW Caribbean, NE to E winds are moderate or weaker, with slight seas. The exception there is fresh E wind across the interior Gulf of Honduras, where seas are locally 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central Caribbean into Sun. Fresh to locally strong E winds will continue across the Gulf of Honduras tonight. The ridge will weaken and shift east by Mon, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the central Caribbean into mid week. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across the central Caribbean starting Wed as the ridge builds north of the area.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough in the W Atlantic combined with upper level divergence from an upper level trough N of the region are aiding in persistent scattered moderate convection from 28N to 31N between 68W and 72W. Isolated moderate convection dots the central and northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring from the E coasts of the Lesser Antilles to 54W, behind a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean described above. Another upper low and surface trough extends into the north central waters, and is promoting scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 25N to 29N between 47W and 59W. Elsewhere at the surface, the pressure gradient between the Azores High and lower pressure along the ITCZ and monsoon trough is producing moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas across much of the Atlantic S of 26W. E of 33W, the pressure gradient tightens and is producing fresh to strong NE winds along with rough seas of 8-10 ft impacting waters N of 18N, including near the Canary Islands where NE winds are strong to near-gale force. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will shift southeastward through early this week, allowing a cold front to move offshore the SE U.S. Sun, then stall along about 31N. SW winds will increase and producing building seas N of 25N through the middle of next week between this stalled front and the Atlantic ridge to the east.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling