Go to the WJXT homepage

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 02S45W. A few showers are seen near the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Converging low-level winds in the south-central Gulf result in a line of showers from near 26N90W to the Yucatan Channel. At the surface, a broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas, except for lighter winds in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a broad western Atlantic surface ridge extends westward across the northern Gulf states and will dominate the Gulf region through Sat, then weaken through Sun. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds with occasional strong winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula, in the northwestern Gulf and Florida Straits. On Sun, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf and move southeastward through early next week, bringing strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas behind it.

Caribbean Sea

Divergence aloft in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras is supporting numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially west of 83W. Converging low-level winds result in scattered showers in the SW Caribbean, especially off Costa Rica and western Panama. High pressure north of the area forces moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft across much of the central and western Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a broad western Atlantic ridge continues along about 34N and into the SE U.S. This morning, and will change little through Sun morning. The pressure gradient between this surface ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Fri night before winds and seas diminish there over the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A deep layer trough, along with a surface trough, centered northeast of the Leeward Islands, combine to generate scattered moderate convection from 20N to 27N and between 50W and 62W. A surface trough along Florida's east coast is triggering a few showers near the northwest Bahamas and southeastern Florida. An expansive 1035 mb high in the north Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas north of 20N between 45W and the Bahamas, except gentle to moderate SE winds with 4 to 7 ft seas off northeastern Florida.

Moderate or weaker winds and rough seas are evident south of 20N and west of 40W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are noted north of 24N and east of 45W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Lastly, a plume of Saharan dust covers much of the eastern Atlantic, reducing the visibility for vessels in the area.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure extends from the central Atlantic west-southwestward and into the SE U.S. This morning, and will shift gradually SW and weaken modestly through Sun morning. This pattern will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas mainly south of 29N, including the central and southeast Bahamas, through this weekend. By Sun, the high will have weakened and shifted to just NE of Bermuda, leading to gradually diminishing winds and seas Sun afternoon through Mon. A cold front is expected to exit the southeastern U.S. On Mon and move slowly southeastward, with increasing winds and and building seas developing behind it, across northeastern Florida waters.

Posted 26 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado