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Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34.5W from 11N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 01S to 05N between 33.5W and 38W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from 14.5N southward across Venezuela, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident south of 15N.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16.5W, then curves southwestward to 06N22W. An ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 03N32W, then resumes from 03N37W to 02N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring near and south of the monsoon trough from 05N to 10N west of 21W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 00N to 48W between 38W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A modest surface ridge runs southwestward from western Atlantic to the eastern Gulf. Southeasterly flow associated with this feature is advecting abundant tropical moisture across the central and eastern Gulf. Meanwhile at the upper level, a pronounced trough is quasi- stationary across the north-central Gulf. Divergent winds east of this upper trough is coupling with the moisture to trigger scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms over the central and northeastern Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche. Isolated thunderstorms are also found at the east- central and southeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the central and eastern Gulf, except locally gusty winds and rough seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. Over the western Gulf, light and variable winds prevail.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extending west-southwestward across Florida into the central Gulf will sustain mainly moderate E to SE winds through Thu. The exception will be fresh winds off northwestern Yucatan and at the northwestern Gulf on Wed night. An upper-level trough across the western Gulf should continue to couple with abundant tropical moisture to produce thunderstorms over the central and northeastern Gulf through at least Wed morning. These thunderstorms are capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, limited visibility, and locally rough seas. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecast.

Caribbean Sea

Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Yucatan Channel, southwestern Cuba across the lee of Cuba to over southeastern Hispaniola. Otherwise, a robust trade-wind regime continues with strong NE to E winds and 9 to 12 ft seas at the south- central basin. Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate the north- central and northeastern basin. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the southeastern and part of the southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean with rough seas into Thu night These winds are expected to pulse to near- gale force off Barranquilla, Colombia, during night-time and morning hours through Wed night. In addition, trades in the Gulf of Honduras will reach fresh to strong each evening through the same period. Fresh to strong trades and rough seas will northward into the north-central basin this afternoon, then gradually subside Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

Aided by modest divergent flow aloft, convergent trades are generating scattered showers near the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A cold front curves southwestward from west of the Azores across 31N38.5W to 26N55W, then turn northwestward to 30N62W. Fresh to strong NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are present near and behind the aforementioned cold front. Fresh to strong E winds are noted from 20N to 26N and west of 55W, including the Great Bahama Bank. In this area, seas range from 6 to 9 ft east of 76W, and 3 to 6 ft west of 76W. North of 25N and west of 57W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds along with 4 t 6 ft seas are present, including the central and northwest Bahamas. To the east, a broad Atlantic Ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft north of 20N between 35W and the cold front. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are seen. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas are anticipated across waters south of 25N through Wed, including the Great Bahama Bank as a stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. As the high begins to weaken Wed, it should allow winds and seas to diminish from east to west. The western part of a cold front near 29N57W will push farther south to near 25N56W by tonight before gradually dissipating on Tue. Fresh NE winds along with moderate to rough seas will follow the front, then slowly subside Tue.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv