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Special Feature

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale- force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Rough to very rough seas 12 to 14 ft will develop during the times of peak winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 22W, south of 17N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Overnight satellite imagery and scatterometer data suggest a 1011 mb surface low is located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands near 13N22W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 10.5N to 14.5N between 20W and 24W. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By this weekend, the system is forecast to move into a hostile environment, and further development is not expected. The disturbance has a low chance of development over the next 7 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ ahead of this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N17W and continues southwestward to a 1011 mb low pres near 13N22W to 09N39W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to 05.5N53W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm on south of the monsoon trough and north of ITCZ to 10.5N between 41W and 59W.

Gulf Of America

1022 mb high pressure is centered southeast and offshore of the mouth of the Mississippi River, and is forcing fresh to locally strong easterly winds south of 23N and between 84W and 95W, as shown by recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas area 3 to 5 ft across this area. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are present in the remainder of the western and SE Gulf waters, where seas are 2-4 ft. North of the high, gentle to moderate W to NW winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail. Elsewhere, slight to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Upper level low pressure across the southeast Gulf is supporting a cluster of moderate to strong convection along the W coast of Florida from Cape Coral to New Port Richey. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also across the Mexican coastal waters from Cabo Rojo to offshore of Veracruz.

For the forecast, high pressure will meander across the northern Gulf through early Mon. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and night. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail elsewhere. Upper level low pressure across the eastern Gulf will support active thunderstorms across portions of the NE Gulf through Sun.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it meanders over the northeastern Gulf or moves slowly northeastward toward the coast of the southeastern United States early next week. The chance of formation through the next 7 days is low.

Caribbean Sea

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Seas are estimated at 10 to 14 ft in the area presently. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

The Atlantic subtropical ridge persists along 26N-27N to the north of the Caribbean Sea, forcing strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough to very rough seas are found in these waters. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate seas are noted in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few clusters of moderate convection across the waters east of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the Channel.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge, and the Colombian low, will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia each night through Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon before contracting to south of 15N Mon and Tue. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

An extensive subtropical ridge persists across the tropical Atlantic north of 15N, anchored by 1027 mb centered near 28N48W and extends westward to southeast Florida. Saharan dust and mid- latitude dry air continue to dominate the basin, suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are occurring off the SE Bahamas, Haiti and eastern Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are prevalent south of 24N and west of 30W to the Lesser Antilles. Widely scattered clusters of moderate convection are noted from offshore of Cape Canaveral northeastward toward Bermuda.

Meanwhile, in the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough and east of 32W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 26W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge will drift slightly northward through Sun night, then weaken early next week as a broad surface trough develops between 50W and 60W and shifts westward through mid week. This weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of 24N Sun night, and gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each evening and night across the waters N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling