Go to the WJXT homepage

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is analyzed in the far E Atlantic with axis near 20W, extending from 04N to 19N, and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 18W and 22W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 40W, extending from 06N to 15N, and moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis near 65W, extending from 10N to 19N or from northern Venezuela to near the Anegada Passage, and is moving westward at around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is depicted at the moment in association with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis along 86W, south of 20N and into the far eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean, and is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen S of 16N and W of 82W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coast of Mauritania at 19N16W and continues to 08N45W. The ITCZ begins near 08N45W and continues to 07N57W. Other than the convection associated with the tropical waves as described above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough is analyzed from north of Tampa Bay into the NE Gulf, with scattered showers near the trough axis. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a weak 1013 mb high centered near 26N90W, which is supporting light to gentle anticyclonic winds from the Yucatan Channel to the high to near Galveston Bay, Texas. Moderate anticyclonic winds are closer to all coastal locations around the periphery of the high. Seas are mainly 1 to 3 ft, except locally higher near NE Mexico and SE Texas.

For the forecast, surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue during the next couple of days over the NE Gulf due to the presence of a frontal boundary north of the area.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on associated convection. Scattered thunderstorms are also occurring nearshore western Jamaica.

The pressure gradient between relatively low pressure over South America and the ridge is supporting fresh to strong trades over the central to SW Caribbean along with 6 to 8 ft seas. Winds are moderate to fresh across the eastern Caribbean and remainder of the SW Caribbean, where seas are moderate. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail across the remainder of basin, with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, the aerial extent and strength of the trade winds will increase from tonight into Thu as the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low increases. By that time, expect fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri.

Atlantic Ocean

A frontal trough reaches from north of the discussion waters from 31N70W to 28N80W. Fresh SW winds are found north of 25N and east of the boundary to near 60W, along with 6-9 ft seas. Nearby scattered moderate convection is found east of the trough to near 65W to the north of 27N. A 1024 mb high pressure near 30N47W and an associated ridge dominate the remainder of the subtropical Atlantic waters. Moderate to fresh trades can be found north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to about 22N around the high, with moderate to fresh return flow west of 55W and elsewhere southeast of the frontal trough. Fresh to strong winds are near Africa to the Canary Islands from 17N to 27N to the east of 20W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a ridge farther south than usual, along 24N-25N, through Fri. This, in combination with a frontal boundary over the W Atlantic, will support fresh to strong SW winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N and west of 65W for the next several days. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola from tonight through Sat.

Posted 1 hour, 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era