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Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa in the far E Atlantic with axis near 18W, extending from 03N to 18N, and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 15W and 27W.

A tropical wave is in moving from the E to the central Atlantic with axis near 38W, extending from 06N to 16N, and moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis near 65W, extending from 10N to 19N or from northern Venezuela to near the Anegada Passage, and moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted at the moment in association with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis along 83W, south of 18N along the eastern coast of Nicaragua to across the border of Costa Rica and Panama and into the far eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean, and moving westward at around 10 kt. A cluster of scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 16.5N between 79W and 89W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coast of Mauritania at 18N16W and continues to across the southern Cabo Verde Islands to 08N42W. The ITCZ begins near 08N42W and continues to 07N48W to 09.5N57W. Scattered moderate convection is present offshore Africa, from 04N to 10.5N between the African coast and 20W. Other than the convection associated with the tropical wave near 18W as described above, a small cluster of scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 42W and 47W.

Gulf Of America

Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is ongoing over the E Gulf, from 25.5N to 29N between Florida and 88W in associated with low level convergence occurring near a surface trough that extends across central Florida to near Tampa Bay. Similar convection is depicted near the coast of NW Cuba. The remainder Gulf is under the influence of a 1014 mb high centered near 28N93W, which is supporting light to gentle anticyclonic winds along a ridge from the Yucatan Channel to the high to near Galveston Bay, Texas. Moderate anticyclonic winds are closer to all coastal locations around the periphery of the high. Seas are mainly 1 to 3 ft, except locally higher near NE Mexico and SE Texas.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue during the next couple of days over the NE Gulf due to the presence of a frontal boundary over north- central Florida.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on associated convection. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring over and nearshore western Jamaica.

Atlantic ridging dominates the region north of the basin, extending W-SW along 24N and across the central Bahamas. The pressure gradient between relatively low pressure over South America and the ridge is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the Caribbean from 11N to 18N along with 3 to 6 ft seas. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of basin, with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, the aerial extent and strength of the trade winds will increase from late Wed into Thu as the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombia Low increases. By that time, expect fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly from Wed through Fri.

Atlantic Ocean

A frontal trough reaches from north of the discussion waters through 31N72W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida continuing across Central Florida to near Tampa Bay. Fresh to strong SW winds are found north of 27N and east of the boundary to near 63W, along with 5 to locally 8 ft seas, highest near 31N. Nearby scattered moderate convection is found east of the trough to near 63W to the north of 23N. A 1025 mb high pressure near 29N47W and a 1021 mb high pressure near 32.5N22W dominates the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters. Moderate to fresh trades can be found north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to about 22N around the high, with moderate to locally fresh return flow west of 55W and elsewhere southeast of the frontal trough. Fresh to locally strong winds are near Africa to the Canary Islands from 17N to 30N to the east of 20W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a ridge farther south than usual, along 24N-25N, through Fri. This in combination with a stationary frontal boundary off NE Florida will force fresh to strong SW winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N and west of 65W for the next several days. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop just north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico from Wed through Sat.

Posted 59 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky