TRACKING THE TROPICS
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 4 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Bucci
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough is analyzed from 13N17W to 00N24W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the boundaries and E of 32W.
Gulf Of America
High pressure over the western Atlantic extends toward the NE Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers over the Yucatan Peninsula.
For the forecast, surface ridge will dominate the Gulf through Sat, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with occasional strong north of the Yucatan Peninsula, in the northwestern Gulf and Florida Straits. Seas are expected to be moderate during this period. On Sun, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf and then move southeastward through early next week, bringing strong winds and rough seas.
Caribbean Sea
Fresh to strong NE to E trades dominate waters offshore Colombia and in the Windward Passage, with moderate to fresh winds over most of the rest of the basin, except for the eastern Caribbean where gentle to moderate NE winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except rough seas in N swell are spilling through Atlantic passages E of 70W.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a surface ridge near 30N and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE to E winds along with moderate to rough seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Fri night.
Atlantic Ocean
A deep layer trough that extends roughly along 60W from 18N to 27N is inducing scattered moderate convection from 17N to 28N between 52W and 63W. In the far eastern Atlantic, a 1016 mb low pressure is analyzed near 26N23W. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas prevail in the vicinity of the low. A relatively tight pressure gradient between subtropical ridging with an axis along 35 to 40N and lower pressure toward the Equator is inducing widespread fresh to strong trades between 20N and 30N, with associated rough seas. To the south, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure at the north Atlantic will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas mainly south of 28N, including the central and southeast Bahamas through this weekend. Afterward, the high is going to weaken which should allow both winds and seas to gradually subside early next week. On Mon night and Tue, a cold front exiting the southeastern U.S. Will cause building winds and seas off northeastern Florida.
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era
