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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A Monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Guiana, then curves southwestward from 11N15W and extends southwestward to 01N30W. An ITCZ continues from 01N30W to near 01N28W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 04N between 10W and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 80 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W and 30W, and west of 40W.

Gulf Of America

A deep-layer trough extends southwestward from Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico. Divergent flow east of this feature is enhancing scattered heavy showers with intense thunderstorms and gusty winds at the southeastern Gulf. At the surface, a ridge runs southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area. This ridge provides moderate to fresh southeast winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across the eastern Gulf. Gentle SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will prevail across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas Gulf-wide through the weekend. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the evenings.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough extends southwestward from a tail-end of a stationary front over Hispaniola to near the Nicaragua. Patchy showers are occurring near Jamaica and crab. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft are found at the lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage. Mostly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the basin will weaken over the next couple of days and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1010 mb low near 33N45W across 31N46W to 24N55W, then continues as a stationary front to Hispaniola. Patchy showers are occurring up to 50 nm along either side of this boundary. A surface trough runs southwestward from 21N53W to near the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered showers are found near the feature. Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered heavy showers near the coast of French Guiana. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found along and up to 100 nm northwest of the front, including the Great Bahama Bank. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present north of 26N between 35W and the cold front. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, conditions will gradually improve late this week as the front weakens and eventually dissipates over the SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will weaken over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh to locally westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning on Fri as another cold front reaches the area by Sat.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan