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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues south-southwestward to 02N20W and then to 01S35W. The ITCZ continues from 01S35W to 03N42W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 03N to 06N between 12W and 20W.

Gulf Of America

Buoy observations and earlier scatterometer satellite data confirm moderate to fresh SE winds across the northwest Gulf, between 1018 mb high pressure over the northeast Gulf and 1001 mb low pressure over central Mexico. Seas are 5-7 ft over the northwest Gulf. Farther south, fresh NE winds are likely off the northwest Yucatan Peninsula related to the trough that often develops over Yucatan in the evening. Gentle breezes and 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere, except for 1-3 ft over the far eastern Gulf. Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the coast in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will support moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through Wed morning. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then at mostly fresh speeds through Fri night. A weak cold front will move into the far northern Gulf Thu and begin to stall Thu night into Fri, perhaps over waters further south. A strong cold front will emerge off the Texas coast late Fri night, then reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late on Sat, and from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with near gale winds possible offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Sat. Seas are forecast to build to around 12 ft, or possibly even higher Sat and Sat night, then slowly subside on Sun. There is a potential for the near gale winds to reach gale force. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected to precede the front. Mariners should stay up to date with the latest forecast.

Caribbean Sea

Ridging north of the area is strong enough to support fresh to locally strong trade winds off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 5-6 ft. Fresh NE winds may be active across the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras currently as well. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail elsewhere across the basin, with 3-5 ft seas, except for 1-3 ft seas in the far northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Sunday, reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat night before diminishing Sunday.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N59W to 26N68W then is stationary to the NW Bahamas, with a pre- frontal trough to its east from 27N60W to 20N65W. The supporting mid to upper trough has moved well east of the front, and is maintaining scattered showers and thunderstorms from 25N to 30N between 52W and 60W. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 6-8 ft seas in N swell follow the front. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere west of 55W. Farther east, a front reaches from the eastern Azores to 26N30W to 21N38W. A reinforcing cold front follows, reaching from low pressure over the western Azores to 31N33W to 30N40W. Moderate NW winds and 5-7 ft seas in NW swell follow these fronts. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E trade winds and 5-6 ft seas are noted south of 20N, and gentle breezes with 4-5 ft seas noted north of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N61W to just east of the central Bahamas will move E of 55W on Wed. Another cold front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon before passing E of 55W on Sat. A third cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida on Saturday. This front will reach from 31N73W to central Florida on Sun.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen