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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 02N30W to 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection from 02N to 04N east of 30W.

Gulf Of America

1020 mb high pressure is over the north-central Gulf near 27N90W. A surface trough is along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is supporting fresh NE winds and 3-5 ft seas off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas elsewhere. A couple of platforms in the northwest Gulf have been indicated a modest visibility limitation due to haze, but generally good visibility is observed elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front will move into the northeast Gulf later today, followed by moderate NE winds through tonight. The front will dissipate and weak high pressure will again build over the northeast Gulf through mid week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat.

Caribbean Sea

Weak 1013 mb low pressure is centered between northeast Nicaragua and Jamaica, along a trough reaching from near Grand Cayman to 13N78W. Showers are likely active north of the low pressure between eastern Honduras and Jamaica. High pressure is centered north of the area, just east of the Bahamas. The gradient between the high pressure and the low pressure is enhancing NE winds across the Windward Passage, as confirmed by an evening scatterometer satellite pass showing 20 to 25 kt in there. Seas are likely 5-7 ft in the Windward Passage. Fresh to locally strong Ne winds are also likely south of Cuba and Hispaniola, and off Colombia. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic centered E of the Bahamas will support fresh to locally strong NE winds south of Cuba, through the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola through tonight. A weakening stationary front extending the central Atlantic through the U.S.V.I. Will gradually dissipate this morning. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia today and persist through Sat, mainly at night, as the high pressure moves slightly eastward.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from 31N48W to the northern Leeward Islands. Recent scatterometer satellite data shows mostly fresh winds near the front north of 29N, where Sofar buoys confirm 8-11 ft combined seas mainly in NW swell. A broad ridge extends westward to Florida from the front, supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft seas. Over the eastern Atlantic, a 1005 mb low pressure center persists south of the Canary Islands, supporting fresh to strong N to NE winds and 8-10 ft seas north of 25N and east of 30W. A broad ridge centered over the Azores extends across the remainder of the area, supporting moderate NE to E winds and 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to move into the central Atlantic through early Wed while gradually dissipating. A new cold front is approaching from the north, and will reach the waters between Bermuda and northeast Florida this morning. Strong to near gale force winds and rough to very rough seas accompany the front, which will reach from Bermuda to Cape Canaveral, Florida by this afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish through Wed as the front stalls from 31N63W to east-central Florida, then dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will persist through Thu across the region. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida on Sat, followed by strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen