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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from low pressure over SE Georgia southwestward to the southern portion of the Florida Big Bend to 21N89W. Strong to near-gale NW winds are already spreading across the basin in the wake of the front, with gale force winds over the SW, NE coastal waters, and SE coastal waters. The gale force winds will progress across the eastern half of the basin through Sun morning as the front moves SE, exiting the basin by this afternoon. The gale winds in the SW Gulf will dissipate by late this morning. Rough to very rough seas will prevail across the basin, with highest seas near the strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts eastward across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front.

W Atlantic Storm Warning: A rapidly intensifying low pressure system is centered just N of the area near 33N75W. The low will track NE offshore the Carolina coast through tonight while expanding. A strong arctic cold front associated with this system is currently moving through the Gulf of America. The front will continue moving across Florida today and sweep across the western Atlantic through late Sun. In its wake, a very large area of westerly strong to gale force winds and rapidly rising seas will cover the waters N of about 24N and west of 60W Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. Storm force winds will develop on either side of the front by Sun morning, mainly N of 30N between 69W-73W. These conditions will prevail through Sun night. Very rough to high seas will follow the front, peaking to 28 ft on Sun. The front is expected to reach from near 31N71W to eastern Cuba this evening, from near 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from near 26N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. High pressure will shift E roughly along 29N next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for today and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these upcoming rapidly changing conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and for more information on both events.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W to 03N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning in effect for the basin.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts eastward across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Wed and reach from the Florida panhandle to the western Gulf by Wed afternoon.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough extends from eastern Cuba to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica boundary. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate seas are west of the trough. Meanwhile, moderate eastern winds and moderate seas are occurring in the south-central and eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the unusually strong cold front that is currently moving through the Gulf of America will move into the northwestern Caribbean today overtaking the trough. The cold front will reach from the vicinity of the Windward Passage to 15N76W and to Panama late tonight, and from Puerto Rico to NE Colombia by Sun evening. It will then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early Mon. Strong to near gale force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front. By early Tue, fresh to strong N to NW winds will prevail W of a line from the Virgin Islands to NE Colombia to central Cuba along with rough seas. These winds and seas will likely diminish in coverage by midweek.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for information about the Storm Warning for the western Atlantic.

The pressure gradient is tightening in the western waters of the tropical Atlantic due to an approaching cold front that is currently moving through the eastern Gulf of America. A 1006 mb low pres is analyzed N of the Bahamas near 27N74W, with trough extending from the low to 21N76W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 24N between 63W-71W. This activity is supported also by an upper-level disturbance riding along a subtropical jetstream branch that passes over that part of the area. Moderate to strong east to southeast winds are between 64W and 74W, with rough seas. To the east, a surface trough extends from near 30N51W to 27N61W. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern half of the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 30N23W.

For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features section for details.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era