Go to the WJXT homepage

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is west of the Cape Verde Islands extending from 07N to 19N with axis near 33W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 14N between 30W and 35W.

A tropical wave is over the Atlantic central waters, extending from 04N to 20N with axis near 51W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 14N between 47W and 52W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 72W south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 12N to 18N between 68W and 77W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and extends southwestward to 13N25W to 12N31W. The ITCZ begins near 12N40W and continues to 13.5N45W to 12N50W. No significant covection is evident aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section above.

Gulf Of America

A ridge extends across the northern Gulf anchored by a 1021 mb high pressure center over the northwest Gulf near 28N91W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the west- central Gulf, west of a trough that extends across the southwest Gulf along 94W from 24N94W southward to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico along the Bay of Campeche. This pattern is supporting moderate SE winds and 3-5 ft seas east of the trough, and light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to occasionally strong winds N of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active across the central Caribbean between northwest Venezuela and Hispaniola, along a tropical wave moving through the region. The pressure gradient between this feature and the Atlantic ridge centered east of the Bahamas is supporting strong E winds and 10-12 ft seas over the north-central Caribbean, and fresh NE to E winds and 7-9 ft elsewhere east of 85W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 9 ft are also active through the Windward Passage to the north coast of Jamaica. Fresh NE winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted in the lee of Cuba, with moderate NE winds and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean though Mon. The tropical wave in the central Caribbean is accompanied by active convection which will create locally higher winds and seas. The wave will continue westward across the western Caribbean Mon.

Atlantic Ocean

The subtropical Atlantic waters remain under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High, anchored by 1022 mb high pressure centered east of the northern Bahamas near 26N73W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active between this ridge and Bermuda, on the southern end of a stationary front north of the area along 32N. Moderate to fresh E winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted between the ridge and front, specifically from 28N to 30N between 55W and 70W. Moderate to fresh E winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of the ridge, specifically south of 22N and west of 55W, with strong winds and rough seas near the northern approaches to the Windward Passage. The eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge anchored by 1027 mb high pressure centered over the Azores. Light to gentle SE to S breezes are evident along the ridge axis from the Azores to the Bahamas, with 3-4 ft seas. A band of moderate NE winds and 4-6 ft seas from off northwest Africa to the eastern Caribbean, except fresh trade winds and 5-7 ft seas in the deep tropics east of the Lesser Antilles. Gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a ridge along 28N and a tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds south of 22N through tonight. A cold front will move into the northern waters east of 70W late today. The front will move across the northern forecast waters on Mon then weaken into a trough by Tue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front and E of 70W today and tonight.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen