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Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 35W, extending from 07N to 16N, and moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Widely scattered showers are ahead of this wave, from 11N to 13.5N between 34W and 36W. A small 1013 mb low center remains a few degrees ahead of the wave, along the monsoon trough near 09.5N 37.5W.

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles and into the E Caribbean with axis near 61W-62W, extending from 08N to 19N, and moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated showers not the NE Caribbean waters ahead of the wave.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis along 82W, from 10N to 18N, and moving westward at around 10-15 kt. A cluster of scattered moderate to strong convection is noted about the wave from 09N to 14N between 79W and 84W, while isolated showers are noted near the northern portion of the wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues to 13N26W to 1013 mb low pressure near 09.5N37.6W to 09N39W. The ITCZ begins near 09N39W and continues to 07.5N45W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present offshore Africa, from 05N to 13N between the African coast and 20W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05.5N to 10N between 20W and 58W.

Gulf Of America

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is ongoing over the NE Gulf, from the coastal waters of Panama City to between Cedar Key and Tampa Bay, and is associated with low level convergence occurring north of a surface trough that extends eastward across central Florida. Similar convection is along the coast on either side of Veracruz, Mexico. The remainder Gulf is under the influence of a 1016 mb high centered near 24.5N90W, which is supporting light to gentle variable winds over the central and SE basin along with slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail in the Bay of Campeche associated with a surface trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are also W of 95W while moderate or weaker NW winds are over the NE Gulf N of 28N.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the central Gulf to promote generally quiescent marine conditions for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue during the next couple of days over the NE Gulf due to an approaching weak cold front across the SE U.S.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on associated convection. Isolated moderate convection extends from western Cuba southwestward to the entrance to the Yucatan Channel. Strong upper level SW wind shear dominates much of the N half of the basin, occurring the to south of an upper trough across NW portions.

Atlantic ridging dominates the region north of the basin, extending W-SW along 24N-25N and into the central Bahamas, while 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed over northern Colombia near 09N74W. The pressure gradient between the two features supports on;y moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean along with 5 to 7 ft seas. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of basin, with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, the increasing pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure along 24N-25N and the Colombian Low will strengthen trade winds to strong over the S central Caribbean this afternoon through Fri evening before diminishing. Trade winds over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh each evening and night beginning Wednesday night through Sat. A tropical wave entering the E Caribbean this morning will enhance showers and isolated thunderstorms across the E and SE Caribbean through Wed morning.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front is moving slowly southeastward across the SW N Atlantic waters from 31N75W to central coastal Florida, supported by a sharp upper trough along the east coast of the U.S. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are ahead of this boundary, extending from the waters of the Upper Florida Keys northeastward to near 31N69W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also within 90 nm east of a second trough that extends from 31N66W to 26N72W. Affecting the northern offshore waters N of 27N between 66W and 78W. 1024 mb high pressure near 28N44W dominates the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters and provides moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas N of 22N and W of 30W. The gradient of pressure between the ridge and the front over the SW waters supports moderate to fresh SW winds W of 60W, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. South of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds prevail across the Tropical Atlantic S of 22N, where seas are 5 to 8 ft W of 30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a ridge farther south than usual, along 24N-25N, through Fri. This in combination with a stationary front offshore of the Carolinas will force fresh to strong SW winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N and west of 60W for the next several days. Fresh to locally strong trades will develop just north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico from Wed afternoon through Sat.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling