WEATHER ALERT
TRACKING THE TROPICS
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Coast: A broad low pressure area is expected to form offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States along the western end of a frontal system early next week. Gradual development of this system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 20 percent.
Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Reinhart
Special Features
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively low pressure over Colombia will lead to the trade winds offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to peaking at gale-force speeds again tonight into Sun morning. These winds are forecast to sustain seas in the range of 9 to 14 ft northwest through north of Colombia as latest altimeter satellite data is already revealing seas greater than 10 ft. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near gale- force trade winds in the south-central Caribbean offshore northern Colombia. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.
Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic short-amplitude tropical wave has its axis extending from 10N35W to 02N41W. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 06N to 07N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 20N51W to 14N56W to 07N59W. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave within 60 nm of 12.5N54W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 13N between 50W and 59W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is just inland Belize and Guatemala, or near 88W south of 19N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 15N to 17N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of the wave from 16N tom 18N. For future information on this wave please refer to the eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 10N21W and to 09N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N30W to 08N36W. It resumes at 04N41W to 02N47W and to 01N51W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 11N between the coast of Africa and 21W. A squall line emerging off the coast is contributing to this activity. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 29W-36W.
Gulf Of America
A 1021 mb high center, part of the western extension of Atlantic high pressure, is located over the NE Gulf. A ridge extends from the high west-southwestward to central Texas. The related gradient is generally allowing for moderate to locally fresh southeast to south winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft west of 90W and 2 to 3 ft east of 90W as indicated by recent altimeter satellite data and from recent buoy observations. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, the ridge will persist into early next week providing for a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu, and moderate to locally fresh southeast to south winds across the northwestern Gulf through Sun night. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the northeast Gulf Mon night into Tue and gradually dissipate.
Caribbean Sea
Please read the Special Features section for details regarding upcoming gale conditions for offshore Colombia.
Aside from the expected gale conditions, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and adjacent areas is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over much of the central Caribbean, and westward from there to the Gulf of Honduras as seen in the latest scatterometer satellite data. Fresh to strong northeast winds are in the Windward Passage as also seen in the latest scatterometer satellite data. Moderate seas are with the aforementioned winds. Moderate to fresh trade winds and slight seas are over the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of Colombia tonight into early Sun morning. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras this evening and tonight. Fresh to strong northeast winds and moderate to locally rough seas will briefly affect the Windward Passage this evening and tonight. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across the remainder of the basin.
Atlantic Ocean
A trough is analyzed from 31N64W to 25N67W and to the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic while another trough is analyzed from 26N56W to near 18N60W. Meanwhile, a couple of upper-level lows within the general area of these troughs are seen in water vapor imagery, with the first one near 28N61W and the second one, less defined, near 28N48W. Instability created by these features has produced an area of scattered moderate convection from 20N to 27N between 44W and 49W, and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from 24N to 28N between 55W and 65W. A very moist and unstable easterly wind flow around the southern periphery of high pressure ridging that is roughly along 28N has lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over and near the northern and central Bahamas extending south and southwest to the eastern part of the Straits of Florida. High pressure generally covers the basin north of about 15N east of the Lesser Antilles, and elsewhere north of the Greater Antilles. The related gradient is sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds south of about 24N and east of 72W, and also between the Bahamas and Cuba. In the far eastern part of the basin, fresh to strong north winds are present from 18N to 29N east of 22W to along the coast of Africa. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are over these waters. Otherwise, seas of moderate state are over the majority of the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging will be the main feature controlling the general wind flow pattern over the area through Mon. Fresh to strong trade winds along with locally rough seas are expected offshore Hispaniola this evening and tonight. The trough that is along the position from 31N64W to 25N67W and to the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic will continue to shift westward across the western portion of the basin tonight, reaching near 70W by Sun morning while dissipating. This will slightly weaken the ridge. Looking ahead, a low pressure area is expected to form offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States along the western end of a frontal system early next week. Slow development of this system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly westward.
Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre
