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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07.5N13W and extends to 0.5N23W. The ITCZ continues from 0.5N23W to south of the equator at 24W and to 04S38W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 08S to the equator between 25W and 36W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 01N to 07N between 11W and 17W.

Gulf Of America

Locally fresh NE winds are noted just north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a surface trough develops in the region. Otherwise, weak ridging extends over much of the Gulf, supporting gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds over the basin. Recent buoy and altimeter satellite data show 2 to 4 ft seas prevail over the Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Wed night.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough extending from southeast to northwest Cuba is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward Passage. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE winds over the Caribbean. Seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail over the basin, as noticed on recent buoy and altimeter satellite data.

For the forecast, high pressure situated N of the basin will continue to weaken over the next couple of days as the aforementioned trough lifts NE during the weekend before dissipating on Mon. This weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate winds will reach fresh speeds at night through Wed. Otherwise, winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through mid-week as the pressure gradient builds between a developing trough NE of the southern Bahamas and high pressure W of the Canary Islands extending a ridge SW to the NE Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extending from southeastern Cuba to 22.5N69.5W is supporting scattered moderate convection, mainly off the northern coast of the Dominican Republic. Gusty and erratic winds and building seas can be expected near thunderstorms. Weak ridging is noted to the north of this feature over the Bahamas and off the coast of Florida, supporting moderate or weaker winds and 2 to 4 ft seas. Farther east, an increasing pressure gradient between a 1018 mb high centered near 28N49.5W and cold fronts passing to the north is supporting fresh to strong W winds in the central Atlantic, mainly north of 30N between 50W and 65W. Altimeter and buoy data denote 7 to 9 ft seas in this region. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 31N36W to 26N48W and moderate N to NW winds are noted to the north. Residual rough seas of 8 to 9 ft prevail in this region. Off the coast of NW Africa, a cold front progressing southward is supporting fresh to strong NW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas east of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh NE winds and locally rough seas to 8 ft are noted farther south to near the Cape Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough from southeast Cuba through the southern Bahamas is forecast to lift NE over the weekend, likely developing a low SE Bahamas on Sat before dissipating on Mon. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas over the NE offshore waters will prevail through Sat evening as a cold front clips the region late Sat into early Sun. A second cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night, extend from 31N70W to South Florida by Mon night, and past Bermuda to 23N67W by Tue evening before dissipating Wed night.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams