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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front continues to move E-SE across the Gulf this morning, and extends from the Florida Big Bend southwestward to 20N94W then southward and inland across Mexico E of Coatzacoalcos. Strong to near gale- force N winds and rough to very rough seas are found behind the front. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicated that northerly gales were occurring offshore Tampico, and are expected to begin across the waters near Veracruz by sunrise. These gale conditions are forecast to continue offshore Tampico through this morning and offshore Veracruz through late Mon night. The cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin tonight through Mon evening. Seas are expected to quickly build across the Gulf region through Mon reaching 16 or 17 ft across SW portions. Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03.5N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N19W to 04N43W and to 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed south of 08N between 13W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the western and SW Gulf.

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend southwestward to 20N94W then southward and inland across Mexico E of Coatzacoalcos. Modified arctic air is spilling across the entire basin behind the front to produce a blanket of cold air stratus behind the front. Area radars show fine lines of moderate showers along and ahead of the front across the eastern Gulf and into Florida, with a few isolated strong showers. Gulf buoys show seas have reached 10 ft across NW and SW central portions, outside of the strongest winds. Winds offshore of Tampico are likely 12-13 ft already. Ahead of the front, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin through Mon evening with very rough seas expected to quickly build across the basin today and tonight. Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. The high will shift southeastward Thu as low pressure develops in the far western Gulf along the next cold frontal boundary. This front is expected to reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri evening.

Caribbean Sea

Generally stable conditions prevail across the Caribbean waters. Satellite imagery shows scattered shallow light showers extending across the basin from south of Jamaica east and southeastward to the Lesser Antilles. A broad high pressure ridge north of the area supports fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas to near 8 ft off northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are prevalent in the north- central and eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will slide SE and weaken through Tue and maintain a ridge N of the Caribbean basin, supporting mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside into early next week, with seas lingering near 8 ft through early Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late today and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of America.

Atlantic Ocean

A 1027 mb high is centered NE of Bermuda near 35N54W and extends a broad ridge southwestward across the NW Bahamas, south Florida and through the Straits of Florida. A 1011 mb low center of located over central Georgia, with a strong cold front then trailing southwestward across the Gulf of America. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and the low center supports fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas to 8 ft north of 28N and west of 75W. Farther east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N39W and continues southwestward to 28N50W and then as a stationary front to 31N63W. Moderate to locally fresh E winds and rough seas 8 to 12 ft in N swell are found north of the boundary. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas 7 to 10 ft south of 25N and between the Bahamas and Africa. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail. A band of multilayer clouds associated with very strong winds aloft persist across the tropical Atlantic, extending from NE South America all the way to W Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds over the NW forecast waters will continue through mid morning in advance of a strong cold front that is expected to move offshore northeast Florida this morning, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will reach from near 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and S Florida Mon evening, from near 31N57W to the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas are expected W of the front this afternoon through Tue afternoon. The frontal boundary will begin to dissipate on Thu as another cold front moves out across the western forecast waters, reaching from near 29N55W to the central Bahamas Fri morning, before stalling N of 24N Fri night.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling