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Special Feature

Tropical Depression Two is centered near 28.5N 85.6W at 20/1500 UTC or 100 nm S of Panama City Florida, moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 9 ft in the NE quadrant, where strong winds are present. Numerous strong convection is noted N of 24N and E of 92W. On the forecast track, the system will approach SE Louisiana in two to three days. Gradual strengthening is forecast and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

An Eastern Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Cabo Verde Islands along 21W, from 04N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N E of 24W.

A well-defined Central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 19N, moving W at around 10 kt. Abundant dry Saharan air encompasses this wave, precluding any convection.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends southward from Haiti along 72W, moving W at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N37W. The ITCZ extends from 07N45W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Depression Two in the NE Gulf.

Away from the influence of Tropical Depression Two, 1016 mb high pressure centered near 25N92W dominates, leading to gentle winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Two will strengthen to a tropical storm near 28.6N 86.0W this evening, move to 28.9N 86.5W Tue morning, 29.2N 87.2W Tue evening, 29.4N 88.2W Wed morning, 29.5N 89.5W Wed evening, and inland to 29.5N 90.8W Thu morning. Two will weaken to a tropical depression near 29.4N 93.3W early Fri.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure over South America is resulting in fresh easterly trade winds over most of the central and southwest Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, with locally strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted in these waters. Moderate winds and seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. In the NW basin, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 12N in the SW basin, in association with a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 10N78W.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through Thu. During the same period, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Windward Passage, mainly at night. Pulsing winds to fresh speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

An broad upper-level low has two surface trough reflections, along 45W N of 25N, and from 18N55W to 22N51W, respectively. These features are inducing scattered moderate convection from 20N to 29N between 45W and 60W. NW of these trough axes, moderate to locally fresh NE winds are being generated in the tighter pressure gradient between the features and the 1021 mb subtropical ridge centered near 30N60W. Moderate to locally fresh trades dominate waters between 15N and 30N, E of 45W, otherwise winds in the basin are moderate or weaker. Moderate seas dominate the entire basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface trough located over the central Atlantic near 52W will move westward reaching near 60W by Tue morning, and near 65W by Wed morning. Moderate to fresh winds are expected on either side of the trough axis. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas E of the Bahamas are forecast elsewhere through Fri.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik