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Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will support strong to gale-force NE winds over the south central Caribbean tonight, Fri night, and Sat night off Colombia. Gale-force winds are also possible in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Seas are expected to peak around 14 ft on Sat.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near the trough axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 11N to 16N and between 60W and 66W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the trough axis over the Caribbean.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 10N26W. The ITCZ extends from 10N26W to 09N32W, then continues from 08N35W to 03N51W.

Gulf Of America

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture combine to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the basin south of 25N and east of 85W, with the strongest convection occurring in the Bay of Campeche. A 1020 mb high pressure over the eastern Gulf results in moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 25N and east of 96W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure extending westward across the basin from the Atlantic will change little through Thu night, then shift northward to near the northern Gulf coast Fri through Sat night. The weather pattern will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the Gulf south of about 26N, and light to gentle southeast to south winds north of about 26N. The exception will be occasional fresh to strong northeast to east winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night. A mid to upper- level low along with a moist and unstable airmass will generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the SW Gulf, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere across the basin south of about 28N through Thu.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela.

Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and the western Greater Antilles. A strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic continues to dominate the Caribbean. Outside of the Gale Warning area, strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas are found across the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and seas of 4-7 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage and the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through early next week. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean is accompanied by fresh to strong trades along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that are currently present from 13N to 16N between 62W and 65W. These trades will combine with those already present in the central Caribbean beginning Thu night as the wave advances westward.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad upper level low near the SE Bahamas is enhancing some shower and isolated thunderstorm activity north of Hispaniola. Meanwhile, an expansive subtropical ridge axis is roughly along 27N, anchored by a 1027 mb high center at 27N47W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds off northern Haiti. Seas of 6-8 ft in these waters.

Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 23N and east of 35W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to a line from 30N20W to 25N35W and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging near 27N will change little through Thu, then shift slightly north afterward. The weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage through early next week.

Posted 1 hour, 11 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado