TRACKING THE TROPICS
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northeastern Atlantic: A strong non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles west of the coast of Portugal. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics later today or on Sunday while it moves east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain. The opportunity for tropical or subtropical development should end Sunday night when the system encounters unfavorable environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 20 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing disorganized shower activity. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts westward through Sunday and then accelerates northward early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 20 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. An area of low pressure could form in association with the wave soon after it moves off the coast, and subsequent development will be possible while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through the end of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 30 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt
Posted 2 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Waves
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W south of 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 11N between 23W and 27W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W south of 20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis.
Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W south of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis.
A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 80W south of 20N, It is moving westward near 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave is confined to the eastern Pacific waters just south of Panama, which is also where the eastern segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough is present.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N22W, and westward from there to 12N35W and to 12N46W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 09N55W. Outside of convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen within about 120 nm south of the trough between 39W and 44W.
Gulf Of America
Relatively weak high pressure continues to dominate the basin as a weak 1018 mb high center is analyzed near 25N93W. This pattern is supporting mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft throughout.
A trough extends from north-central Florida south-southwestward to just south of Tampa and into the eastern Gulf near 25N84W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf section while isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the north- central and west-central sections of the Gulf. A northeast to southwest oriented mid-level trough will help trigger off additional shower and thunderstorm over the NE Gulf today and tonight.
For the forecast, the weak high pressure centered over the central Gulf will prevail into the middle portion of next week. Its related generally weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas. A surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.
Caribbean Sea
The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south-central Caribbean. Seas in the range of 8 to 10 ft are with these trades as noted in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Overnight satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are of moderate state with these trades. Light to gentle trades are over the northwest part of the basin. Seas there are 2 to 3 ft.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the eastern Caribbean from 11N to 15N east of 69W to the vicinity of the Windward Islands. Similar activity is over the far western part of the sea from 13N to 16N west of 82W to just inland Honduras and Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 13N between 80W and the coasts of Costa Rica and northern Panama.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient in place will continue to support fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas primarily over the south-central Caribbean well into next week. Elsewhere across the basin, expect moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas through the period. The exception will be in the northwest portion of the basin, where light to gentle trades will change little through the period. A tropical wave currently over the tropical Atlantic is expected to move across the eastern Caribbean Tue through early Wed, and across the eastern part of the central Caribbean during the rest of Wed. Another tropical wave may approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on Wed. These waves will enhance the trade wind flow across those waters.
Atlantic Ocean
A weak 1016 mb low is near 29N56W, with a trough extending southwestward to near 28N61W. Another trough extends from the low northeastward to north of the area at 31N49W. Other troughs are analyzed from near 27N55W to 25N56W, and from near 27N41W to 22N47W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active near these features. Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature across the basin controlling the general wind regime throughout. A weak 1019 mb high center is located at 30N68W. A rather weak pressure gradient is allowing for light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of about 23N while moderate to fresh trades are south of 23N. Seas west of 45W and also north of 26N west of 24W are 3 to 5 ft per overnight satellite altimeter data passes and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 8 ft off the coasts of Mauritania and Senegal, where mostly fresh northeast winds are occurring.
For the forecast west of 55W, the weak pressure gradient will support light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of about 23N through the period. Moderate to fresh trades are expected south of about 23N, with winds pulsing to strong speeds off northern Hispaniola at night well into next week. Meanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas next week freshening the trades. Yet, the northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area Wed and Wed night increasing the trades over those waters.
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre
