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Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is just E of the Cape Verde Islands, extending from 05N to 17N with axis near 23W, moving W at 5-10 kt. Isolated showers are in the immediate vicinity of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 17N with axis near 33W, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 12N between 28W and 41W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean, with axis south of 19N and near 67W, which is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted between 63W and 73W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 09N30W. The ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 06N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate to strong convection is coming off W Africa and extends from 04N to 16N between 10W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 13N between 44W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure extends a ridge across the western Atlantic SW across the SE U.S. And across the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1018 mb high near 26N89W. This supports light to gentle winds and slight seas across most of the basin, except for gentle to moderate NE to E winds over the Bay of Campeche associated with a surface trough.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through midweek. These winds are the result of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight to moderate seas are expected.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low continues to support fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6-10 ft in the central to SW Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 5-6 ft seas are across the E Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Otherwise, the E Pacific extension of the monsoon continues to support numerous moderate to strong convection over the Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia offshore waters.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Wed night. Expect winds to reach near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela from Sun through Wed. Moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Otherwise, a tropical wave moving across the Mona Passage this morning will continue to bring scattered showers and tstms to the eastern Caribbean through this evening and across the central basin through early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A weakening frontal boundary continues to meander just north of the area along 31N-33N between 45W and 71W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are between the front and 27N. Similar shower activity is farther east within 60 nm either side of a surface trough that extends from 29N45W to 26N52W. Otherwise, the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward across the subtropical Atlantic waters, thus supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas across much of the waters S of 25N. North of 25N and W of 44W, winds are moderate or weaker from the SSW and seas slight. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades prevail between the Lesser Antilles and 43W where seas are 7-8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to build westward into central Florida through midweek. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds are likely at night N of Hispaniola and approaches to the Windward Passage.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos