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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N24W. The ITCZ extends from 03N24W to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 10W and 24W, and from 02S to 06N between 41W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A ridge extends from a 1029 high pressure located NW of Bermuda, across Florida and into the Gulf region. Under the influence of this ridge, moderate to fresh E to SE winds are present S of 26N and E of 90W, while NE to E winds of the same magnitude are ongoing over the SW Gulf. North of 26N, winds are moderate or weaker, except likely higher in the vicinity of a pre-frontal trough that is generating scattered heavy showers and tstms from SW Louisiana to southern Texas coastal waters. Otherwise, moderate seas to 6 ft are ongoing with the strongest winds in the SE Gulf while slight to moderate seas remain elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front will push offshore the Texas coast tonight and move slowly southeastward across the basin into Tue. Ahead of the front, fresh east winds will continue across the Straits of Florida and over the far southeastern Gulf through late tonight. Behind the front, strong northeast winds and rough seas are expected across portions of the western Gulf Sun into Mon, with these conditions spreading into the NE Gulf Tue through Thu. There is potential for winds in the far NE Gulf to reach gale- force Wed and Wed night. Scattered thunderstorms may precede the front.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia with seas in the 7 to 8 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are noted. Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms prevail in the SE Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Bermuda high will weaken some and slide east Sun, allowing pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia to end. A trough just north of Hispaniola will drift west-northwestward toward the Bahamas through Tue. The gradient between it and central Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Winds may increase again by late next week in the south-central Caribbean as high pressure to the north strengthens and builds southward.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure near Bermuda and the Azores extends over just about the entire forecast region. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the subtropics and tropics is producing fresh to strong east winds and rough seas south of about 26N and W of 58W. Rough seas up to 11 ft are present with these winds east of the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh trades are over the tropical waters between 50W and the Lesser Antilles where IR satellite imagery show scattered showers ongoing. Scattered showers are also across the southern and central Bahamas offshores as well as the approaches to the Windward Passage and the Great Bahama Bank. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present.

For the forecast west of 55W, conditions south of 26N will improve Sun night into Mon as the high weakens and slides eastward as a cold front moves slowly off the southeast U.S. By Tue, this front will stall from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys. Low pressure may form along this stationary boundary Tue night then track NE along it and N of the area Wed. The gradient between this low and high pressure building into the southeast U.S. Will lead to widespread near-gale-force NE winds and very rough seas N and W of the frontal boundary for the middle of next week. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecast and stay abreast for possible gale conditions developing as early as Tue.

Posted 1 hour, 44 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos