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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf by Sun night. As the front moves across the basin through early next week, gale- force NW winds will develop in the wake of the front, mainly W of 90W. Peak sustained winds of 35 to 45 kt, with gusts to storm- force and very rough seas of up to 15 ft, can be expected offshore of Veracruz. These conditions will dissipate by late Mon.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 150 nm on either side of these features.

Gulf Of America

A frontal remnant trough is analyzed through the Florida Straits, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing along the trough axis. Ridging prevails across the Gulf otherwise, with gentle to moderate trades and slight seas prevalent basin-wide.

For the forecast, a frontal remnant trough extends through the Florida Straits. A strong cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Sun night, quickly reaching the southeastern Gulf by Mon night and slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean by late Tue. Strong to gale- force N winds will follow the front along with seas rapidly becoming rough. Gale-force winds will be possible in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico on Sun night and Mon. The winds offshore Veracruz may attain gusts to storm- force. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region into midweek.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between north-central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia is supporting pulsing fresh to strong trades across the south-central basin. Rough seas are expected with these winds, mainly offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh E trade winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere E of 80W, while gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas are noted W of 80W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia will support pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean today. New high pressure will build westward across the west and central Atlantic on Sun, with the resulting pressure gradient leading to fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from the Tropical N Atlantic on Sun to the eastern and central Caribbean, including the passages on Mon. The pressure gradient will weaken by Tue as a cold front approaches the NW Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A frontal remnant trough is analyzed from the Florida Straits to the northern Bahamas to the waters offshore SW Bermuda. Scattered moderate convection is developing along and near the trough axis. Much of the remaining Atlantic is under the influence of ridging from the 1034 mb Azores high. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 6-10 ft prevail across much of the waters E of 60W. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail W of 60W and S of 24N. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal remnant trough extends from near 31N70W to the Straits of Florida. Atlantic high pressure will build west- southwestward toward the Bahamas through the weekend before it will retreat eastward early next week in response to the next cold front. The front will move off the U.S. Southeastern coast Mon evening, then slow down and stall from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will develop over the NW forecast waters starting Sun afternoon ahead of the front. Fresh to strong northwest winds will follow the front through Tue. To the south, rough seas produced by long-period E swell will impact the waters E of the Bahamas early next week before slowly subsiding during midweek.

Posted 23 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams