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Special Features

Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front prevails across the W Caribbean, extending from E coast of Cuba to inland portions along the Honduras-Nicaragua border. This boundary, along with low level onshore flow, will allow for deep moisture to prevail in the area. Heavy rainfall is expected through Thu, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize, and isolated 4+ inches possible along the windward slopes and near the north coast of Honduras where the onshore flow persists. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the area through today. Please follow your local weather office for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to beyond 00N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from south of 04N between 00W and 10W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure over the N central Gulf coast maintains a broad ridge across the basin. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail across the basin, with moderate seas. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted across much of the Gulf except over the offshore waters from Florida to Louisiana to SE Texas, where dry offshore flow has cleared the skies.

For the forecast, high pressure over the southern Plains will shift east through Thu ahead of a low pressure area moving into the lower Mississippi Valley, with trailing cold front that will move off the Texas coast Thu night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will rapidly deepen Fri as it moves into the western Atlantic late Fri and Sat. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force winds over the northeast Gulf by Sat, and possibly off Veracruz in the southwest Gulf, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Sun and Mon as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf following the front.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the section above for details on the significant rainfall even expected over the Honduras/Nicaragua area through Thu.

A stationary front extends from the east coast of Cuba to inland over far northern Nicaragua. The pressure gradient between this front and the ridge to the N is resulting in fresh to strong N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the NW Caribbean. A modest pressure gradient also exists in the south-central Caribbean, forcing fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas and offshore of NW Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front extending from near the E coast of Cuba to far NE Nicaragua will persist in the area through this evening before high pressure across the N Gulf of America begins to move E through Fri. This will induce fresh to strong N winds behind the front, and force it slowly eastward, reaching from E Cuba to the SE coast of Nicaragua Thu morning, then stall and begin to weaken from E Cuba to near the Nicaragua- Panama border Thu evening through Fri. An unusually strong cold front will move into the NW basin Sat morning and move southeastward, merging with the old lingering front from E Cuba to central Panama Sat evening, then reach from eastern Hispaniola to the NW coast of Colombia by Sun evening. Strong to near gale- force N winds are expected behind this front.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N48W to 26N61W, then becomes stationary to the east coast of Cuba. Scattered showers are evident along this boundary. Moderate to fresh and locally strong winds are behind the front, with rough seas in NW to N swell east of 70W. Fresh SW winds and rough seas are within about 300 nm ahead of the front north of 26N. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a ridge extending from 1021 mb high pressure centered near 28N26W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted south of 22N and east of 60W, with moderate seas in mixed E and N swell. In the NE Atlantic, a surface trough extends along 27N between 15W-35W. No significant weather is associated with this feature. Large northerly swell spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Rough to very rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 37W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, an Atlantic cold front extends from 31N48W to eastern Cuba. Behind the front, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas in NW swell prevail. The front will become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W to the SE Bahamas and east Cuba this evening, then will meander across this area through Thu. High pressure across the Gulf of America will build eastward into the W Atlantic and freshen winds behind the lingering front Thu through Thu evening. An unusually strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic waters on Sat. Associated low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic this weekend, inducing a large area of westerly gale-force winds across the local waters N of 24N Sat through Sun evening. The front is expected to reach from 31N74W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, and from 31N62W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams