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Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 19N just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described with the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described with the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

An eastern to central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 20N near the eastern Dominican Republic to western Venezuela, moving westward at around 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described with the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

A now departed NW Caribbean tropical wave is along 90W, south of 19N over the central Yucatan Peninsula, moving westward at around 15 kt. Any nearby convection is described with the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from Mauritania at 19N16W to 10N20W to 14N34W. The ITCZ extends from 14N34W to along the northern coast of South America at 06.5N58W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 21W and 31W, and from 05.5N to 10.5N between 44W and 58W.

Gulf Of America

A persistent surface trough is from near Cape Coral, Florida to the eastern Gulf near 26N88W. A cluster of scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 26N to 29N between 83W and 86W. Otherwise, 1015 mb high pressure near 27N93W controls the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic winds from northwest of the high to the southeast of the high, with moderate return flow closer to the coastal locations around the periphery of the high. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the weekend. A trough extends from Tampa, Florida to 29N87W while a mid to upper level broad trough north of the area is slowly advancing southward toward a very moist and unstable Gulf airmass. This set-up will maintain active weather in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the NE Gulf through the rest of the week.

Caribbean Sea

A mid to upper level feature is supporting moderate convection in the NW Caribbean just southeast of the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, high pressure at the surface over the central Atlantic and low pressure over northern Colombia supports the typical moderate to fresh trades across the basin from 11N to 18N, except locally strong near northern Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft from 10N to 18N to the east of 80W, and mainly 3 to 5 ft elsewhere except lower in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, the coverage area and strength of the trades will increase into Thu as the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low increases. By that time, expect fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with the strongest winds to near gale, or possible brief gusts to gale and highest seas offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri.

Atlantic Ocean

A frontal trough extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas. Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of our waters supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm of the trough axis. The remainder of the basin in under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure system near 30N50W.

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and frontal trough support fresh to strong S-SW winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft north of 28N and west of 65W. Stronger winds and higher seas may be occurring near the stronger convection. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 22N and west of 40W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are evident from 15N to 30N and east of 20W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a ridge farther south than usual, roughly along 24N-25N, through Fri. This, in combination with a frontal trough over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms primarily north of 27N and west of 65W for the next several days. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night and into the mornings through the upcoming weekend.

Posted 1 hour, 26 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky