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Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Posted 5 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Mahoney/Blake
Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. No convection is noted with this wave at this time.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and dives southwestward to 10N43W. The ITCZ extends from 10N43W to 10N51W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ.
Gulf Of America
Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the east-central Gulf. A 1015 mb surface high pressure is centered near 24N86W. This pattern is supporting moderate W winds and 2-4 ft seas off the northern Gulf coast, and light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, the high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over much of the NE Gulf N of 25N and E of 90W into the upcoming week as an upper-level trough and a cold front approach the Gulf coast. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will continue over the far northern Gulf through Sunday evening.
Caribbean Sea
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over Costa Rica and Panama. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge situated in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft across much of the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, the persistent pressure gradient across the Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades over the central basin through the rest of the weekend and into most of next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, currently over the central Caribbean near 72W, is accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over Hispaniola and the adjacent nearshore waters. The wave will continue quickly moving westward across the remainder of the basin through Mon night.
Atlantic Ocean
Divergence aloft associated with a couple of upper-level troughs result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the area north of 25N and west of 60W. The remainder of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic is influenced by a 1026 mb high pressure area centered near 33N54W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas across much of the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will change little through Tue, then lift to N of 31N on Wed. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the majority of the area into the upcoming week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era
