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Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northeastern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure has developed over the northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles north-northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics on Saturday or early Sunday while it moves east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain. The opportunity for tropical or subtropical development should end by Sunday night when the system moves into unfavorable environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 20 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic: A weak area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts west-southwestward through Sunday and then turns northward early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 20 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt
Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Mahoney/Cangialosi
Tropical Waves
A tropical wave is along 21W/22W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Some cyclonic circulation is noted near 11N21W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 20W and 25W.
A second tropical wave is along n eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W/44W south of 20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis.
A third tropical wave has its axis along 54W/55W south of 20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ.
A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 77W south of 20N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N42W. The ITCZ extends from 11N45W to 11N61W. Outside of convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N to 14N between 34W and 40W.
Gulf Of America
High pressure continues to dominate the Gulf region with a 1021 mb center near 24N92W. This pattern is supporting mainly light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. The highest seas of 3 to 4 ft are noted over the Bay of Campeche based on altimeter data. Convection has flared-up over parts of Florida, the north- central Gulf, and along the coast of Mexico roughly between Tuxpan and Veracruz. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity.
For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the central Gulf will prevail into the middle of next week, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas. A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.
Caribbean Sea
The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the most of the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, with the exception of gentle winds over the NW part of the basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean and slight seas over the northwest Caribbean. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over Cuba. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are seen over the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade winds flow is moving across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient associated with high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail over most of the rest of the basin, aside from the northwest portion where lesser winds will dominate. A tropical wave will move into the far eastern Caribbean early next week, enhancing the trade wind flow across those waters.
Atlantic Ocean
Three tropical wave are moving westward between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details.
A weak 1018 mb low is about 480 nm east-southeast of Bermuda near 30N56W. A surface trough extends from the low center to 27N60W to 28N66W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near these features. Similar convective activity is observed north of 24N east of 70W. A surface through is analyzed in this area and extends from 29N74W to 24N80W. A diffluent pattern aloft is also helping to induce this convection. Elsewhere west of 55W, the subtropical ridge dominates, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure between Bermuda and the central Bahamas near 25N67W. Fresh E to SE winds are funneling along the north coast of Hispaniola south of the ridge, supporting 3 to 5 ft seas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a ridge with a 1028 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 35N37W. This system supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft, except fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas off the coasts of Mauritania and Senegal.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of 23N into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are expected south of about 23N, highest off northern Hispaniola, through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the forecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move through the eastern portion of the area early next week enhancing the trades some.
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Gr
