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Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong arctic cold front extends from 973 mb hurricane force low pressure east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina through 31N62W to the north-central coast of the Dominican Republic. Gale-force to strong gale-force winds are mainly north of 27N on either side of the front generally between 55W and 77W, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere west of the front, and elsewhere north of 23N and east of the front to 50W. Gale-force winds will diminish by early Mon. Meanwhile, rough seas prevail across most of the basin N of 22N. Seas across the forecast domain will slowly subside starting at midweek as high pressure in the wake of the fronts shift eastward near 29N. Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the basin, including outside of the storm and gale condition affected zones, due to the expansive area of strong to near gale force winds and associated rough seas. Please keep up with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W then continues to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to northern Brazil at 01S48W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure building across the area and the cold front that is now well southeast of the Gulf is supporting fresh to strong NW winds across the eastern portion of the basin to the east of 87W, while gentle to moderate winds prevail west of 87W. Rough seas cover the SE half of the basin, very rough across the SE Gulf near the western Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel. Moderate seas are elsewhere in the basin, except slight now in the NW and N-central Gulf coastal waters.

For the forecast, conditions at the eastern Gulf will improve tonight. By Mon, a high building eastward will support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas for the central and eastern Gulf. For the western Gulf, a period of fresh to strong southerly winds are anticipated from Mon evening through Tue morning. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern Gulf on Wed, then sweep southward across the Gulf through Thu night. It will bring another round of fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas.

Caribbean Sea

A strong arctic cold front extends from near the southern border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic to near the Panama Canal in the SW Caribbean. Strong to near gale- force NW winds and rough seas are found behind the front, including in the Windward Passage and Yucatan Channel. A surface trough extends from eastern Hispaniola to northern Colombia, with some scattered moderate convection between the trough and the front. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean east of the trough and front.

For the forecast, the front will then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to near the Gulf of Venezuela Mon and Mon night. Strong to near-gale force N to NE winds and rough seas behind this front will gradually shift eastward from the western Caribbean to the central Caribbean through Tue. As the stalled front dissipates near midweek, this should allow winds and seas to diminish across the central Caribbean. On Thu, another cold front is expected to approach the northwestern Caribbean and cause building seas and winds there toward the next weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning for sections of the western Atlantic.

Outside of the Gale Warning, a cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 31N23W and continues southwestward to 27N40W then becomes stationary to 29N48W. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and rough seas are found mainly behind the front to 20W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1026 mb high center located just north of the discussion waters near 33N40W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 24N between Africa and the Leeward Islands, with moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the waters. Rough seas cover the majority of the remainder of the waters, slightly lower from 25N to 29N between 23W and 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, as the low described above tracks northeastward tonight through Mon, these gale winds will also shift northeastward to north of 31N by early Mon morning. Afterward, the merged cold front will sustain fresh to strong W to NW winds but they too, should gradually subside to between gentle and moderate on Tue as the front pulls eastward and weaken. Dangerous seas at 24 to 28 ft will steadily subside to between 12 and 16 ft on Mon, then 8 to 10 ft on Tue. In the long run, another cold front is going to move off the southeast U.S. Coast on Thu, resulting in building winds and seas north of 25N through the next weekend. Mariners are urged to remain cautious through Mon and stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky