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Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 23W, south of 12N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is observed where the wave meets the monsoon trough, from 04N to 06N between 20W and 25W.

A tropical wave is along 37W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. A few showers are noted on either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 63W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Convection is limited. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are between the wave axis and the Lesser Antilles based on recent scatterometer data.

A second tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea near 70W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is enhancing convection over portions of western Venezuela, including the Lake Maracaibo area.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea along 82W, south of 19N to across western Panama and into the eastern Pacific Ocean, slowly moving around 5 kt. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Windward Passage, between Haiti and Jamaica, and over the central Caribbean from 11N to 17N between 73W and 82W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of W Africa near 12N16W, and continues southwestward to 04N28W. The ITCZ extends from 04N28W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Other than the convection associated with two tropical waves, a large area of moderate to isolated strong convection is observed near the coast of W Africa, covering the waters from 04N to 10N between 09W and 17W. This convective activity is affecting the coastal waters of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

Gulf Of America

High pressure located over the western Atlantic just W of Bemuda extends a ridge across the SE of United States, including Florida, into the Gulf region. This system is supporting gentle to moderate SE to S winds across most of the basin, with the exception of fresh to strong E to SE winds N of the Yucatan Peninsula to about 24N between 87W and 91W. Seas are slight to moderate within these wind speeds, with maximum seas to 6 ft occurring within the area of the strongest winds N of the Yucatan Peninsula. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is over the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the coast of Mexico and adjacent waters from Veracruz, Mexico to Brownsville, Texas.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf through Mon. Winds will be easterly at mostly fresh speeds across most of the western and central Gulf S of 26N through midweek. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings through Wed. Slight to moderate seas will prevail with these winds.

Caribbean Sea

Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more details, including any associated significant convection.

Otherwise, high pressure north of the area centered just W of Bermuda, combined with lower pressures across South America supports moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas across the majority of the basin, with the exception of the SW Caribbean where light to gentle winds are noted, and in the Gulf of Honduras where a recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to locally strong E winds. An upper level trough over the central Caribbean is helping to induce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Passage, between Haiti and Jamaica, and over the central Caribbean from 11N to 17N between 73W and 82W. Elsewhere, patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean today as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will begin to increase again over the central Caribbean late tonight into Mon, and over the NW part of the basin Mon night into Tue as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central America. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE winds may persist in the NW Caribbean Wed through Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

Two tropical waves are moving westward between the western coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details including any related significant convection.

A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends from near 31N58W to the central Bahamas into eastern Cuba. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are along and ahead of this trough, affecting the SE Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the lee of eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. A 1020 mb high pressure located just W of Bermuda follows this frontal trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure situated SW of the Azores near 34N32W. Under the influence of this system, a gentle to moderate E to SE flow is seen N of 20N E of front to about 45W. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are found north of 17N and east of 40W, including the Canary Islands. The strongest winds are between the islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will remain nearly stationary through Mon night. A cold front will move across the waters N of 27N Tue through Wed, and gradually dissipate by Thu. High pressure will follow the front, and will be centered near Bermuda by Wed, then move eastward by Thu. This weather pattern will generally support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas through midweek, except for moderate to fresh trades S of 22N between Hispaniola and Cuba starting late Wed.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr