Go to the WJXT homepage

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 24W from 06N to 17N, moving west at around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 21W and 28W.

A tropical wave is along 42W from 07N to 18N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is limited to the southern wave environment, from 05N to 08N between 38W and 44W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 80W, extending southward from 19N, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active in the lee side of Cuba and in the Gulf of Honduras.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 10N26W to 08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 07N43W to 07N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 30W and 40W, and from 06N to 10N between 44W and 51W.

Gulf Of America

A 1016 mb high pressure is centered near 26N86W, supporting light to gentle winds across most of the northern Gulf N of 26N and the SE basin. A surface trough move off the Yucatan to the Gulf of Campeche tonight, and is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the SW basin. Moderate SE winds is also present in the immediate offshores of E Mexico to near 94W. Seas basin-wide are 1-4 ft. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active over the SE Gulf S of 25N and E of 89W, and in the Bay of Campeche due to the surface trough.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle winds and slight to moderate seas into the weekend. Pulses of fresh winds will occur west of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally strong Wed night, along with moderate seas.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong E trade winds and 7-10 ft seas persist across the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean, between high pressure north of area and lower pressure over northern South America. Moderate E winds and 3-6 ft seas are noted in the E Caribbean. In the NW basin, trade winds are moderate to fresh and seas slight to moderate. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active SE of the Dominican Republic.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support strong trades, occasionally reaching near gale, and associated rough seas, over the central basin into the weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds and seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

Scattered showers are active across the E Florida offshores, including the seaboard. Farther east, a surface trough extending from 27N61W to 20N63W is generating scattered showers and tstms from 21N to 27N between 56W and 66W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere in the subtropical waters. In the far NE Atlantic, strong to near- gale N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the water passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a mid- and upper-level trough along the SE U.S. Coast will keep scattered thunderstorms ongoing offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas into Wed. Locally strong trades will continue pulsing offshore Hispaniola to near the Windward Passage. A westward moving trough will pass north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Wed and Wed night, then approach the Bahamas by late week before shifting west of the area, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas. Weak ridging settles across the northern and central waters this weekend, bringing tranquil marine conditions.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos