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Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northeastern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop along a front over the northeastern Atlantic by early Friday. This system could separate from its fronts and acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this weekend while it moves generally eastward or east-northeastward toward Portugal and northwestern Spain. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 20 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 18N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderated convection is present from 06N to 14N and between 25W and 32W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 18N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 15N and between 32W and 47W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south from the Virgin Islands, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 59W and 65W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 11N to 14N W of 79W.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 16N17W and continues southwestward to 11N30W and to 10N49W. The ITCZ extends from 10N49W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 04N to 17N and east of 23W.
Gulf Of America
Outflow from overnight convection in the southeastern U.S. Has moved southward into the far NE Gulf and is inducing scattered moderate convection offshore the Florida Panhandle. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in the western Bay of Campeche, aided by the northern extent of an eastern Pacific tropical wave. Otherwise, high pressure centered near 26N89W dominates. This is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds through the basin, with slight seas. Some seas to 4 ft are ongoing in the Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the central Gulf will prevail over the basin through the forecast period. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the basin. A surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.
Caribbean Sea
See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection in the basin.
The pressure gradient between general higher pressure to the north and low pressure centered over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle over the NW basin. Seas are moderate, except rough in the south-central and slight in the NW.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force fresh to locally near gale-force trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the north-central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week, perhaps increase in coverage over the tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean starting Sun night as a tropical wave moves across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected.
Atlantic Ocean
See Tropical Waves section for information on convection in deep tropics.
A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and continues westward to 30N58W, where it devolves into a surface trough and continues to 26N69W. Scattered moderate convection us noted N of 26N between 47W and 65W and in association with these features. The rest of the basin is under the influence of subtropical ridging, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas, except for a belt of moderate to fresh trades between 12N and 24N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of 23N going into the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh trades are expected south of about 23N, especially off northern Hispaniola through the period.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik
