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Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours tonight. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge from the Atlantic extends westward across Florida into the Gulf region supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with moderate seas across most of the Gulf waters, including the Straits of Florida. Slight seas are noted offshore Florida. A few showers are developing over the far western Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will settle in the Gulf through midweek next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to between fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the NE Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front may impact the northwestern Gulf Wed night with increasing winds and seas.

Caribbean Sea

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

An enhanced pressure gradient is in place across the Caribbean, with high pressure near Bermuda and lower pressure over northern Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are across the east and central Caribbean, in the Gulf of Honduras, and also through the Windward Passage. Seas are in the 8 to 12 ft range in the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the basin. A surface trough near Puerto Rico is helping to enhance shower activity in the vicinity.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a Colombian low will continue to support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through Sun night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Large easterly trade- wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through Wed.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough analyzed over Puerto Rico is helping to generate scattered showers between the northern end of the trough axis and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1028 mb high pressure located just W of Bermuda, and also a 1030 mb high pressure centered ESE of the Azores. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are observed N of 20N and E of 22W. Fresh trades are blowing S of 25N and W of 50W along the southern periphery of the ridge. Seas are 7 to 10 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere S of 26N, along with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 25N through Tue night, reaching strong north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast Bahamas through Mon. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a potential cold front.

Posted 1 hour, 35 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era