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Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to gale- force NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across portions of the south-central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through at least Sat night. Winds are expected to be strongest at night due to the enhancement of nocturnal drainage flow.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 05N16W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 00N26W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 04S to 04N between 24W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

Broad surface ridging extends across the basin with generally quiet weather. Winds are moderate from the E to SE and seas are mainly slight, except for fresh E winds and moderate seas in the SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a broad ridge southwestward into the SE U.S. Into the weekend, with the resultant pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Gulf, except NE to E winds in the Bay of Campeche. Expect winds to pulse fresh speeds each night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

Caribbean Sea

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

Surface ridging from strong high pressure centered N of the area is supporting fresh to near-gale winds over the eastern and central Caribbean where seas are moderate to rough, except very rough offshore Colombia. In the Windward Passage, winds are fresh to strong from the NE while moderate to fresh NE winds remain across the lee side of Cuba and the remainder NW Caribbean along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, broad Atlantic high pressure will maintain a ridge southwestward into Florida and the SE U.S. Into the weekend to support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the nocturnal hours through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba will continue to pulse through the forecast period. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will begin to pulse at night from Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very rough seas in easterly trade wind swell over the tropical N Atlantic will subside modestly Thu through Fri.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure prevail across the subtropical and tropical Atlantic basin. The tail end of a stalled front weakens the ridge, entering the area near 31N52W and extending to 25N65W. Scattered showers remain ahead of the front reaching near 45W and N of 24N. Seas are elevated to 10 ft across much of the eastern and central Atlantic due to long period NE to E swell propagating from a former gale-force low near Morocco. Elsewhere over the SW N Atlantic waters, winds are gentle to moderate from the east, except fresh to locally strong S of 24N W of 55W, including the approaches to the Windward Passage. Seas within these winds are moderate to rough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will become diffuse today. Rough seas N of the front will linger into tonight while expanding southeastward and merging with easterly trade wind swell S of 25N and E of the Bahamas. Otherwise, strong high pressure will become centered over the western N Atlantic during the next few days and produce fresh to strong E winds mostly south of 25N.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos