Go to the WJXT homepage

Special Feature

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued Gale Warnings for the marine zones of Agadir through 13/12Z, and Tarfaya from 12/15Z through 13/12Z. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast product, listed on the website at https://wwmiws.wmo.int. For more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coastal border Gambia and southern Senegal, then extends southwestward to 03N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the Equator at 30W and continues to 03S38W and to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from the Equator to 04N between 23W and 27W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm northwest of the ITCZ between 25W and 34W, and within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W and 39W.

Gulf Of America

A broad ridge extends from a 1025 mb high center that is offshore the Carolinas southwestward to the western Gulf. The related gradient is generally allowing for mostly fresh easterly winds across the basin. Both buoy observations and recent altimeter satellite data indicate seas of 4 to 6 ft over the basin. Higher seas of 7 to 10 ft are in the Straits of Florida, where strong northeast to east winds are present. Much lower seas of 1 to 3 ft are in the far northeast Gulf, where light to gentle east winds exist.

For the forecast, the high pressure center off the Carolinas will begin to slide eastward into the western Atlantic starting this evening. A ridge will extend southwestward from the high to the north-central Gulf through the forecast period. The related gradient will maintain moderate to fresh east winds across the basin through Wed. Afterward, the high pressure will be weakening allowing for winds over the area to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds. Pulsing fresh to strong east winds will surge through the Straits of Florida and into the southeastern Gulf starting today. Seas across the basin will be at a mostly moderate state, except reaching a rough state, at times, in the Straits of Florida beginning on Mon. Seas subside around midweek.

Caribbean Sea

Overnight scatterometer satellite data shows fresh to strong northeast winds south of about 15N between 72W and 79W and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are to 8 ft with these winds. The scatterometer satellite data also shows a swath of fresh to strong northeast winds in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere south of 16N east of 75W and also west of 80W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these trades. Lighter trades of gentle speeds are north of 16N east of 75W and just south of Jamaica. Gentle to moderate trades are in the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 3 to 5 ft.

Convergent trades are helping to sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms along and offshore the coast of Costa Rica.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong east winds and rough seas over the south- central portion of the basin and near Colombia through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through most of the upcoming week. Winds and seas will diminish late in the week.

Atlantic Ocean

A nearly stationary front extends southwestward from 31N59W to 26N63W, and to the north-central portion of the Dominican Republic. Convergent southerly winds are producing scattered moderate convection within 240 nm east of the front north of 26N, and within 150 nm east of the front south of 26N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident along and just inland the coast of Hispaniola.

A trough is analyzed over the western Atlantic from near 29N73W to 25N72.5W. Isolated showers have recently developed from 25N to 27N between 72W and 74W.

Overnight scatterometer satellite data reveals fresh to locally strong northeast winds behind the front. Seas with these winds are in the range of 7 to 10 ft between the front and the Bahamas. Lower seas of 5 to 7 ft are west of the Bahamas, but occasionally to 9 ft in the Straits of Florida. To the east of the front, the basin is dominated by a broad area of high pressure that is associated to a strong Azores high center of 1032 mb. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure to its south is generally supporting moderate to fresh trades east of 60W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft in long-period northeast swell. An area of light to gentle winds is between the front and 60W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed north and east swell within this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to locally strong northeast winds behind the aforementioned front will expand in coverage through Mon night as the northern portion of the frontal boundary transitions back to a cold front as it reaches the northeast forecast waters late on Mon. The winds then diminish to mostly fresh speeds starting Tue south of 28N as the high pressure weakens, with an associated ridge near 31N. Rough seas from large northeast swell will linger into the start of next week between Bermuda and the Bahamas.

Posted 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre