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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across the NW Gulf, and extends from a 1019 mb low pressure located over the the lower Mississippi Valle across SE Louisiana to just S of Brownsville, Texas. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by this evening. The low pressure will rapidly deepen through Sat as it moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it exits to the southeast of the basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf that will support winds to gale-force near Veracruz tonight into early on Sat, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through late Sat night, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts southeastward across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system will develop offshore the Carolina coast tonight into Sat morning. This system will send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters N of about 24N and just E of Florida Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. A Gale Watch is already in effect across the coastal waters of most of the Florida Peninsula, including the Florida Keys. Sustained winds of 30-40 knots with higher gusts are possible across the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida through Sunday afternoon. Wave heights could peak as high as 12 feet across the Gulf and Atlantic waters during the day on Sunday as well. The front is expected to reach from near 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from bear 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters N and E of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these conditions.

Of note: With the aforementioned cold front, a potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sun, Mon and Tue morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far south as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida.

Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 23W-33W. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 05N09W, and continues westward to 02N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W to 00N51W. Convection is limited.

Gulf Of America

See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning expected to begin late tonight.

A cold front is moving across the NW Gulf, and extends from a 1019 mb low pressure located over the the lower Mississippi Valle across SE Louisiana to just S of Brownsville, Texas. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas are noted in the wake of the front. Some shower activity is related to the front. High pressure of 1022 mb is centered over north Florida. A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Gulf and runs from 30N86W to 23N86W. A recent scatterometer pass shows very well the wind shift associated with the trough axis. Moderate to fresh winds are on either side of the trough N of 28N. Broken to overcast low clouds are evident across the coast of Mexico N of the Veracruz area, and over most of the Gulf region N of 23N and W of 84W. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for more information.

Caribbean Sea

As of 15Z, a surface trough extends from central Cuba across the Cayman Islands to near 11N81W. A weak 1016 mb low pressure is noted along the trough axis near 19N80W based on visible satellite imagery. Isolated showers are possible near the low/trough. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are found over the NW Caribbean and W of trough. Seas are slight to moderate in this area. Fresh to strong northeast winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades are elsewhere across the east and central parts of the basin. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are present. An area of moisture, with embedded showers, is observed over the SE Caribbean extending eastward across the Windward Passages. Elsewhere, low-topped trade wind showers are seen.

For the forecast, an unusually strong cold front is forecast to move into the northwestern Caribbean Sat morning and move southeastward merging with the remnants of the trough from eastern Cuba to western Panama Sat evening. The cold front will reach from eastern Hispaniola to the northwest coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early Tue. Strong to near gale-force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning for a portion of the western Atlantic. It is expected to begin on Sat afternoon.

A stationary front extends from 31N48W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds, with possible embedded showers, are noted N of the front affecting most of Cuba, South Florida, the Bahamas and the western Atlantic waters W of 60W. High pressure of 1021 mb located near 28N72W dominates the waters W of front. The pressure gradient between these two features supports fresh to locally strong NE to E winds S of 25N and W of 70W. A light to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted near the high pressure center.

The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure centered west of the Canary Islands near 29N25W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the above mentioned stationary front is promoting fresh to strong southerly winds N of 28N and E of the front to about 40W. An area of fresh to strong NE winds is observed from 12N to 21N E of 30W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 9 to 12 ft within these winds. Large northerly swell continue to spread across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Seas of 8 to 12 ft dominate the forecast waters N of 25N and E of 60W. Rough to very rough seas are reaching the Madeira and Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features section for more information.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr