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Tropical Waves

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 11N southward, and moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen near the central part of the wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from near Puerto Rico southward into central Venezuela. This wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found at north-central Venezuela.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then curves southwestward to 05N20W to 01N39W. No ITCZ is analyzed at this time. Scattered moderate convection is present near and south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 08N east of 25W.

Convergent winds north of the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama.

Gulf Of America

A modest surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to north of Veracruz, Mexico. This feature is supporting light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas for the eastern half of the Gulf. Fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present off the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate with locally fresh SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will persist into the middle of next week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the northwestern Gulf into early next week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Also expect fresh to occasionally strong wind pulses off the northwestern Yucatan peninsula during the evenings into next week.

Caribbean Sea

A pronounced upper-level trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the southern coast of Cuba. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. A tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge near 24N and a 1007 mb low over far northwestern Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in the central, and part of the southwestern basin. Fresh to strong E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds with 2 to 5 ft seas exist in the lee of Cuba and north Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the tight gradient will support strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Tue, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Large E swell induced rough seas will linger across Atlantic waters near the Lesser Antilles into Mon night, then begin to subside.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends southwestward from east of Bermuda across 31N61W to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is occurring up to 85 nm along either side of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident near the aforementioned surface trough, north of 20N and west of 70W. Farther east, a broad Atlantic Ridge stretching southwestward from a 1030 mb Azores High across 31N42W to the central Bahamas is maintaining gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft north of 26N between 35W and 70W. To the south, moderate to fresh NE to E trades with 6 to 9 ft seas dominate from 04N to 26N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles/70W. Gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned Atlantic Ridge will support fresh trade winds and occasionally rough seas with E swell into Sun north of the Leeward Islands. A weak trough extending from 31N62W to the Bahamas will weaken this evening, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place elsewhere through the middle of next week.

Posted 1 day ago by NHC Forecaster Chan