Go to the WJXT homepage

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is analyzed in the far eastern Atlantic along 20W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 04N to 15N and E of 25W, likely enhanced by the Atlantic monsoon trough.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88-89W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is found south of 17N and west of 81W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N40W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N40W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough between 25W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

A frontal boundary draped across the southern and southeastern United States, along with diurnal heating and plenty of moisture combine to support scattered moderate convection across much of the northern Gulf waters, especially north of 27N. A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche supports scattered moderate convection across the far SW Gulf. Outside of convection, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida and into the Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas off Yucatan and in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 29N. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front will prevail just N of the area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the persistent subtropical ridge anchored north of the islands and lower pressures in northern South America continue to support strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate seas are occurring in the remainder of the central Caribbean, Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean, the Windward Passage, and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America will support strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central Caribbean through the week. Rough seas will prevail with these winds. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

Atlantic Ocean

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of the SE Bahamas and between 70W and 80W, along with fresh NE winds E of Cabo Verde between 15N and 25N. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 22N and west of 30W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

A surface trough is analyzed from the central and northern Bahamas to near 31N74W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 22N68W to 29N54W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along and within 100 nm of both trough axes. Convection is suppressed elsewhere across much of the basin due to a large plume of Saharan dust and mid- latitude dry air.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

Posted 50 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams