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Special Features

Central Atlantic Large Swell: A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N46W to 23N63W. A shear line curves westward from 23N63W to 24N78W. Near-gale NE winds prevail in the vicinity of the front. These winds will continue to weaken as the front dissipates gradually today. Large, long-period northerly swell is maintaining seas at 12 to 18 ft up to 450 nm northwest of the boundary. This northerly swell will steadily decline over the next couple of days, allowing seas to gradually subside, possibly dropping below 12 ft on Wed evening.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtm for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W to 02N28W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N between 22W-33W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present across the Florida Straits, north of the Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the E Gulf through Sat night. Over the western half of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night.

Caribbean Sea

A robust trade-wind regime continues across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are seen at the south-central basin, in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic, and near the Windward Passage. Seas range from 8 to 11 ft at the south-central basin, up to 8 ft near the Windward Passage, and 4 to 6 ft in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic. Mainly moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through the forecast period, pulsing to near gale at night through midweek. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu night.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the Special Features section for more information about the large swell.

A stationary front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N46W to 23N63W. A shear line curves westward from 23N63W to over the central Bahamas. Scattered showers are found near and up to 220 nm northwest of the front. A pre- frontal trough is triggering similar conditions north of 25N between 45W and 49W.

Outside of the very rough seas mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are evident behind the frontal boundary and shear line, except moderate to fresh E to SE winds with 6 to 8 ft north of 25N between 78W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Farther southeast, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 11 ft in large N swell exist from 18N to the stationary front between 57W and the southeast Bahamas. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will dissipate on Tue. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front should keep fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas across most of the western Atlantic for the second half of the week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era