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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast this evening. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat, then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico early on Sat, and Sat afternoon and evening near Veracruz. Frequent gusts to gale-force are forecast in the NW Gulf including the coastal waters. Seas are forecast to build to around 12 ft in the area of strongest winds through the weekend. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A low-latitude tropical wave with an axis along 21W extends S of 11N, moving W at around 10 kt. This wave is encompassed within a thick Saharan Air Layer with significant dry air and an otherwise hostile environment preventing any sort of convection to be associated with it.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from 07N13W southwestward to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N22W to 00N30W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing south of 03N between 25W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a Gale Warning in the western Gulf.

A stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend to Corpus Christi Bay. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and north of this front, some of which is producing locally very gusty winds. Outside of convection, strong NE winds are ongoing N of the front. Most of the rest of the Gulf is dominated by ridging associated with high pressure centered east of the Bahamas, inducing gentle SE winds, but a diurnal trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is yielding fresh to locally strong W winds within 90 nm N of the peninsula. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the western Gulf and 1 to 3 ft in the east. Offshore the Yucatan Peninsula where the strong winds are occurring, there are likely some locally higher seas as well. Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the west and northwest Yucatan coasts in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a strong late- season cold front will push off the coasts of Texas and Louisiana this evening, merging with the stationary boundary over the northern Gulf. By Sat morning, the combined front is forecast to extend from northern Florida to near Poza Rica, Mexico, and then from south Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico by Sat morning, and offshore Veracruz Sat afternoon and night. Rough seas up to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds over the SW Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale-force are also forecast in the NW Gulf, including the coastal waters. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Marine conditions should significantly improve early next week.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a 1016 mb high pressure E of the SE Bahamas and a 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong trades off northern Colombia and NW Venezuela, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in these areas. Fresh to locally strong E winds have also developed N of Honduras in the vicinity of the Bay Islands and into the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are moderate. Moderate to fresh easterly trades prevail elsewhere, along with 3 to 6 ft seas, except for light to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 12N and W of 80W, supported by a mid to upper- level trough persisting across the far W Caribbean.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon, reaching strong speeds at times in the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras with locally rough seas. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel by Mon. This will slightly weaken the pressure gradient and winds across the NW Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

The weak low that had been offshore NE Florida has moved N and out of the area. A nearly stationary cold front extends from 31N68W to 29N75W to near Jacksonville, Florida. A 1016 mb high pressure is centered just E of the SE Bahamas. Farther east, a cold front has now stalled from 31N39W to 28N50W, with another stationary boundary from 31N30W to 20N60W. Then, in the far eastern Atlantic, a 1018 mb high is centered W of the Canary Islands. None of these features are leading to significant convection or strong winds, as winds are generally moderate or weaker N of 20N, with moderate seas. Offshore Hispaniola, some locally fresh E winds are ongoing, and some occasionally rough seas are present N of 29N between 25W and 50W. To the S of 20N, gentle trades become moderate to fresh S of 15N, and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will move eastward across the northern waters through Sat while dissipating. The trough NE of the Leeward Islands will persist on Sat and then weaken. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sat, and reach from near 31N71W to South Florida on Sun, then stall through Mon. A weak low pressure may develop along the front at that time. Fresh to strong winds will precede the front on Sat. Mainly fresh northeast to east winds will follow the front through Mon, along with locally rough seas near 31N. The remnants of the front should wash out Tue and Tue night with improving marine conditions.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik