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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, and extends southwestward to near 07N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N26W to 01N34W and to near 00.5N45W just NE of the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ from 00N to 06N between 14W and 45W, and also from 04N to 06N between 45W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends across western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the Yucatan peninsula. Strong to near gale NW winds are occurring over the SW Gulf off Veracruz, Mexico, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the remainder of the SW Gulf. Mainly moderate NE winds are across the remainder of the basin, except gentle in the NW Gulf near the Texas coast. Seas are 2 to 4 ft N of 28N, 4 to 7 ft N of 23N, and 7 to 10 ft S of 23N, highest off Veracruz. Scattered showers are confined to the SW and west- central Gulf zones.

For the forecast, conditions will improve across the SW Gulf today. Otherwise, moderate or lighter winds will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next cold front will move the Gulf Wed night into early Thu, followed by increasing winds and building seas, with the front shifting quickly southeast of the basin Thu evening. Looking ahead, conditions should improve Thu night into the weekend as high pressure shifts across the N Gulf. A reinforcing surge of fresh northerly winds may impact the basin late in the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front extends from across W Cuba to the Yucatan Channel and the N Yucatan peninsula while gradually dissipating. A strong and broad surface ridge northeast of the Caribbean continues to support fresh to strong northeast winds and seas of 7-9 ft over the south-central portion of the basin. Mostly fresh northeast winds are in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 4-6 ft with these winds. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds and seas at 4-6 ft are elsewhere across the basin, with the exception of the northwestern Caribbean north of 20N, where mostly fresh northeast winds are found. Similar winds are over and near the Yucatan Channel. Seas are also 4-6 ft with these winds, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft in a north swell over the waters north of 18N west of 85W, including near and in the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through much of the week and into the upcoming weekend due to the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and low pressure over Colombia. Pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast south of Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the lee of Cuba through to night or so. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean Thu, stall from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the upcoming weekend leading to increasing winds across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N63W to the Central Bahamas and western Cuba. Scattered showers are occurring along and near the front. Gentle to moderate northeast winds are behind the front, except for a swath of fresh northeast winds within 120 nm or so immediate to the west of the front. Seas are 6-10 ft behind the front east of 74W, and 5-7 ft west of 74W. To the east of the front, 1027 mb high pressure is analyzed near 34N37W with an associated ridge stretching SW-W across the northern discussion waters ahead of the front. A large area of moderate to fresh, locally strong, NE-E trades is found south of 26N and east of 55W. Seas are 6-9 ft with these winds. A cold front is to the NE reaching from near the Iberian Peninsula to the Canaray Islands. Rough to very rough swells are found behind the front to 40W, along with moderate to fresh winds. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, along with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 31N63W to the central Bahamas and western Cuba will linger today, then dissipate tonight. High pressure will build eastward off of the SE coast of the United States behind the front. A strong pre- frontal trough will emerge off the coast of NE Florida Wed morning and quickly move eastward, accompanied by fresh to strong winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N. Looking ahead, the next cold front will enter the NW waters Thu morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky