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Special Features

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1031 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower pressures in northwest Africa result in strong to near gale- force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones. Gale- force winds are expected from 04/1500 to 05/0000 UTC with severe gusts. These winds will produce rough seas. Similar conditions will persist into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

Tropical Waves

A new eastern Atlantic tropical wave was analyzed near 17W south of 14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 06N to 09N between 13W and 18W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 47W and 55W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. No deep convection is noted over the Caribbean waters. The wave is enhancing the shower and thunderstorm activity across NE South America.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N25W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 02N to 05N between 21W and 27W.

Gulf Of America

A weakening stationary front extends from southern Florida to SE Louisiana. A surface trough extends from 27N89W to the eastern Bay of Campeche. A tight pressure gradient behind the front forces fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas are present across the southeast Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf waters, east of 90W.

For the forecast, pressure is falling over the central Gulf along the trough, and low pressure weak may form later today near 26N90W even as the front dissipates. This will enhance the strong winds and rough seas over the north-central Gulf this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms will continue today over the south-central and southeast Gulf, south of the front. Winds and seas will diminish starting Fri as the low dissipates to a remnant trough as it moves onshore over southwest Louisiana, and as a ridge builds from the western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf. Looking ahead, this pattern will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas into early next week, except for occasionally fresh to strong pulses off northwest Yucatan during the evenings.

Caribbean Sea

A ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores southwestward to the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the SW Caribbean, while fast- moving showers are passing across the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the area will weaken and shift east through Thu, allowing moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas to dominate much of the the Caribbean by Fri morning. The exception will be pulsing fresh to strong winds off Venezuela and in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Fri. Looking ahead, the Atlantic ridge will rebuild north of the area by Sun, supporting fresh winds and building seas across the central and northwestern Caribbean by Sun night.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the far northeast Atlantic.

A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure near 32N71W to the central Bahamas and southern Florida. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are present along of the front. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and rough seas in NE swell are found behind the front. Fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are evident wihtin 240 nm ahead of the front north of 29N. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, the basin is being dominated by ridging centered around a 1031 mb high located at 34N33W, leading to moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will stall today then dissipate Fri into Sat, as high pressure builds across the area. This pattern will allow gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas into early next week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen