WEATHER ALERT
TRACKING THE TROPICS
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Berg
Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 32W from 05N-20N, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the wave axis and S of 10N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 54W from 07N-18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along the wave axis and N of 10N.
A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W from 17N southward, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with the wave.
A tropical wave extends across the W Caribbean at 84W from 18N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring S of 19N between 75W and 85W.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W southwest to 08N31W. The ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-110N between 25W-40W.
Gulf Of America
A 1020 mb high pressure is centered over the N Gulf near 30N87W. Winds across the Gulf are light to moderate. Seas are 2-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula.
For the forecast, the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will shift to the central Gulf Sat. The high pressure will provide for gentle to moderate winds and modest seas across the basin into the early part of next week, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend.
Caribbean Sea
A moderate pressure gradient between low pressure over northern South America and high pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean with seas 6-9 ft. Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N-17N west of 76W associated with a tropical wave. Additionally, an upper-level low is causing isolated moderate convection north of 19N west of 85W.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras Sat night and possibly Sun night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist over much of the western Caribbean through Sun.
Atlantic Ocean
The Bermuda-Azores High well north of the area along with lower pressure over the ITCZ and the monsoon trough is forcing only moderate to isolated fresh trades west of 30W with seas of 4-6 ft. A larger pressure gradient farther east is forcing fresh to locally strong NE winds with seas 7-9 ft north of 20N east of 30W. An upper-level low is causing isolated moderate convection north of 24N between 61W-78W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will build from the central Atlantic toward Florida, supporting gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas through Sat. The ridge will shift southward Sun ahead of a cold front that will move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda then stall Mon and dissipate through mid week. Looking ahead, this pattern will support moderate to fresh SW winds east of the front north of 28N early next week.
Posted 1 hour, 59 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era
