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Special Features

Gulf of America Storm Warning: A strong cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf tonight, then move southeastward across the Gulf through Mon night. Widespread strong to near-gale northerly winds will follow the front, peaking to gale- force off coast of Texas tonight through early Mon morning. Expect strong gales off the Mexican coast between Tampico and Veracruz Mon, with frequent gusts to storm force. Seas will peak to 15 ft with the strongest winds. Both winds and seas should gradually subside from north to south starting Mon evening.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N10W and continues to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 05N between 21W and 38W.

Gulf Of America

Please read the Special Features section above for information on a storm warning.

Moderate to fresh SW to S return flow prevails along the western edge of the subtropical Atlantic ridge, with locally strong winds noted in the far NW Gulf off the coast of Texas. Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite along and west of a trough reaching from the Yucatan Channel to just southwest of Apalachicola, Florida.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight. Strong to gale-force N winds and building seas will follow the front, forecast to extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by early Mon morning, reaching the southeastern Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula by early Tue morning. Gale conditions and rough to very rough seas are forecast in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico tonight and Mon. Frequent gusts to storm-force are expected offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Mon. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region into midweek.

Caribbean Sea

Strong to near-gale force trades were captured by scatterometer satellite this morning, in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas in this area are currently 8-9 ft. The scatterometer satellite also showed an area of strong E winds near Cabo Beata on the south coast of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, mainly fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, with 4-7 ft seas. Fresh E to SE winds are noted over the Gulf of Honduras north of Roatan Island, with moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere across the northwest Caribbean. Altimeter data show wave heights to be around 2-4 ft over the northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers are active over the eastern Caribbean accompanying a surface trough moving east at 10-15 kt south of Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, strong high pressure moving from the west to the central Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles, and over most of the east and central Caribbean, including in the Atlantic exposures and Passages tonight through Tue. At that time, a cold front moving across the Gulf of America will approach the NW Caribbean. Then, the front will slow down reaching from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by early Wed morning.

Atlantic Ocean

An expansive subtropical Atlantic high pressure extends across much of the basin. Fresh to strong trades prevail south of 25N and west of 45W, including between the islands of the Lesser Antilles. The persistent strong trades have built seas of 8-10 ft in E swell within an area from the equator north to 22N between 45W and 65W. Another area of fresh to strong trades is in the far eastern Atlantic near the Canary Islands, where seas are 8-9 ft. Elsewhere, trades are moderate or weaker and seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge across the forecast region producing fresh to strong winds and rough seas across the SE waters. These marine conditions will persist through Tue. Then, the ridge will retreat eastward early this week in response to the next cold front. The front will move off the U.S. Southeastern coast by late Mon, then slow down and stall from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will develop over the NW forecast waters starting this evening ahead of the front. Fresh to strong northwest winds will follow the front through early Tue. The front will remain nearly stationary through Thu. At the same time, a low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary and move quickly northeastward.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen