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Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W, S of 10N, moving slowly westward at 5-10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63.5W, S of 20N from near the Anegada Passage to eastern Venezuela, and moving westward at around 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 01N24W with a tropical wave to the west as described above. The ITCZ extends from west of the tropical wave at 00N31W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03S to 03N between 18W and 51W, and from 03N to 07N between 07W and 18W.

Gulf Of America

The pressure gradient between ridging that extends from well northeast of the region in the central Atlantic southwestward to across Florida to the northern Gulf and relatively lower pressures in central Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the western Gulf, locally strong near Veracruz, Mexico, along with 3-5 ft seas. In the eastern Gulf, gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail. No significant convection is noted over the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NE Gulf with lower pressures over Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the western Gulf and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf through tonight. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings. Similar winds will pulse from Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico into early today. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf coastal waters Thu morning, quickly stall Thu evening, then lift back to the north as a warm front Fri as high pressure ridging builds back in across the basin from the east. Looking ahead, another weak front may try to move into the northern Gulf waters by the end of the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-cetral Caribbean including the Gulf of Venezuela, and seas of 6-8 ft. Similar winds are in the Gulf of Honduras with 3-5 ft seas. The first tropical wave of the season has moved into the eastern Caribbean and is described more above. Moderate to fresh winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the waters from 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate winds and 2-5 ft seas elsewhere in the basin. No significant convection is noted over the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with similar conditions expected in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

1014 mb low pressure near 32.5N61.5W extends a slow moving cold front through 31N61W to 26N73W then continuing as a stationary front to 1015 mb low pressure near the northern Bahamas at 27N77W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front to the east of 68W. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail in the SE quadrant of the low. A tight pressure gradient is present in the far NE tropical Atlantic with fresh to strong winds and 6-9 ft seas noted from near the Madeira Islands southwestward to a surface trough analyzed from 30N32W to 24N32W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, including the SW N Atlantic and Tropical N Atlantic offshore marine zones, with locally fresh trades south of 15N and west of 40W. Seas are 5-7 ft across that potential area of locally fresh trades and 4-6 ft across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds in the SE quadrant of the low will impact the waters just south of 31N and east of the front through this morning as the low slowly shifts northeast. The northern portion of the front will slowly progress east as a cold front while the southern portion gradually dissipates. Another weak cold front will move off northern Florida Thu night, gradually losing definition as it shifts across the northern waters through Sat. Winds may pulse to moderate to fresh off northern Hispaniola, increasing to fresh to strong this weekend. Winds may freshen off northern Florida Sun night ahead of another front. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will be in place through the forecast period allowing for generally quiet conditions across the area.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky