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Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, extending from 01N to 07N with axis near 37W, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 04S to 04N between 33W and 43W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues southwestward to near 01N25W, with the tropical wave described above to the west. The ITCZ is analyzed from 01N25W to 01N35W and then resumes west of the tropical wave near 00N38W and continues to 00N47W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 17N between 15W and 22W.

Gulf Of America

A weak stationary front stretches southwestward from the western Florida panhandle to near Brownsville, Texas, with a surface ridge in control for the rest of the Gulf waters. Heavy showers and tstms associated with the from are ongoing over the NE Mexico and southern Texas offshore waters. Except for the areas of convection and in the Bay of Campeche, winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate. Over the Bay of Campeche, winds are moderate to fresh associated with a surface trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the northern offshore waters of Texas tonight and Fri, then spread south of New Orleans and Florida Panhandle Fri night as the front sinks a bit farther south. The front will then stall and lift back to the north as a warm front late Fri night thru Sat. Afterward, the ridge should build back across the Gulf from the east. In response, winds will pulse to between fresh and strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sat night. Looking ahead, another cold front might move into the northern Gulf waters late Sun, and reach from north-central Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late on Mon, followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible to precede the fronts.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia supports fresh to strong E winds in the central Caribbean, where seas are 6-8 ft. Fresh to strong winds are also in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and southwest Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge across the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds with nighttime pulses to near-gale in the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through early next week. Similar conditions are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras, through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

The tail of a cold front is over the far E Atlantic subtropical waters while surface ridging dominates elsewhere. Winds are moderate or weaker and seas moderate.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off northeastern Florida late tonight into Fri morning, then gradually weaken as it shifts eastward north of 28N through Sat. The front will bring southerly moderate winds off northern Florida through today. Then a stronger cold front is expected to follow a similar path Mon through Tue, followed by moderate to locally strong winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible ahead of both fronts. Meanwhile, a surface ridge across the western Atlantic near 28N65W will support fresh to locally strong winds off northern Hispaniola at night Sat through Mon.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos