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Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 12N and between 23W and 33W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 48W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 09N30W and to 09N49W. The ITCZ extends from 09N49W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 04N to 15N and east of 33W.
Gulf Of America
A weak high pressure pattern forces gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas across much of the Gulf waters. Locally fresh easterly winds are found in the eastern Bay of Campeche. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are found in the NE Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Dry weather conditions are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the forecast period. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf.
Caribbean Sea
The subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean is supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are found elsewhere. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the SW Caribbean, while dry weather conditions prevail in the remainder of the basin.
For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south- central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail in the north-central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected.
Atlantic Ocean
A frontal boundary remains stationary from 31N50W to a 1015 mb low pres near 28N63W, followed by a dissipating stationary front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the waters near and ahead of these boundaries. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a high pressure system that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.
The central and eastern tropical Atlantic are dominated by broad ridging that sustains moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas. However, fresh NE winds are present north of the monsoon trough to 27N and east of 30W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundaries will weaken to a frontal trough today. Elsewhere, weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across much of the area north of 22N through the week and into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds can be expected south of 22N, especially off northern Hispaniola.
Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado
