BREAKING NEWS
TRACKING THE TROPICS
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristobal, located over the Atlantic well to the west of the Azores.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization associated with a tropical wave located midway between the Lesser Antilles and the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression will likely form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are likely to become too strong for development as the wave approaches the Lesser Antilles this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, high, 80 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west- northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, medium, 50 percent.
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristobal are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristobal are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Hagen/Evans
Special Features
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about 950 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance for tropical formation in the next 48 hours.
Tropical Waves
The axis of a tropical wave is near 24W, from 04N to 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 22W and 30W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some development of this system during the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance for development in the next 7 days.
Please see the Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave near 40W, and the potential for tropical cyclone development.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W extending southward from 18N, moving west at around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 60W and 64W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 72W S of 22N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N to 20N between 72W and 76W.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends southwestward to a 1010 mb low pressure near 10.5N39.5W to 09N48W. The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to 10N60W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 44W and 50W.
Gulf Of America
High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1019 mb high near 28N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to locally moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the weather pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.
Caribbean Sea
The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean. Rough seas prevail over these waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the north central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the remaining waters.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through tonight. The ridge will begin to strengthen modestly behind a tropical wave currently moving across the eastern Caribbean, leading to a significant expansion in coverage of strong trade winds over the central and eastern portions of the basin through Sat. Winds may increase to gale-force offshore of Colombia by Fri night. Looking ahead, an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about 950 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Atlantic Ocean
See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92 located over the central Atlantic.
High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 28N52W. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 23N and west of 25W, with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough seas, are associated with invest AL92. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted elsewhere S of 23N, with moderate seas. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE winds extend from the Canary Islands to 20N then become moderate across the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate seas prevail across this area.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will sink slightly southward Thu, then change little through Fri night, before weakening over the weekend. Winds will freshen from E to W, and south of 23N early Thu through Sat, behind a tropical wave moving across the Caribbean. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong speeds each night. Looking ahead, an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about 950 miles west- southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Posted 1 hour, 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Al
