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Tropical Waves

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is about the wave S of 09N between 35W and 49W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W, south of 11N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present S of 08N between 49W and 62W, and mostly over land.

A southwestern Caribbean tropical wave extends from offshore of Nicaragua along 82W across western Panama and into the Pacific Ocean. The wave is encountering southeasterly middle level flow developing across the NW Caribbean, and the monsoonal flow across the eastern Pacific, with a general westward motion near 10 kt. Convection associated with this wave is mentioned in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below, and is mostly occurring across the Pacific waters.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16.5N16.5W, and curves south then southwestward to 05N24W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N25W to 05.5N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 09N E of 18W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 09N between 34W and 58W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is initiating numerous moderate isolated strong convection across the Caribbean waters of Costa Rica and Panama S of 11.5N, and extends well southward into the eastern Pacific to 04N.

Gulf Of America

A pronounced deep-layered upper-level trough extends across eastern Texas then southward across the western Gulf. This feature is combining with abundant tropical moisture to produce scattered moderate isolated strong convection across the Gulf between 87W and 95W, from the Bay of Campeche northward to SE Louisiana. Some of this activity continues to produce frequent lightning, locally gusty winds and rough seas as it moves northeast and eastward across portions of the southwestern and central Gulf. Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure along 65W extends a broad and weak ridge westward across Florida and the northeastern Gulf. The associated pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft to the E of 92W, and variable winds 10 kt or less across the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will sustain moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds across the Gulf basin through Fri, then diminish to between gentle and moderate over the weekend. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan through this weekend. A deep-layered upper-level trough across the western Gulf should continue to combine with abundant tropical moisture to produce scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over the west and central Gulf until this evening, then over the eastern Gulf tonight and Fri. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

Caribbean Sea

The southern end of the deep-layered trough across the western Gulf of America extends across the Bay of Campeche and western Yucatan Peninsula. Associated upper level divergence across the western Caribbean is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the NE coasts of off the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras, and across the Yucatan Channel. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. At the surface, 1021 mb high pressure is centered across the western Atlantic near 27N65W and extends a broad ridge W-NW across northern Florida. South of this ridge, recent satellite scatterometer data showed strong E trade winds to 30 kt and seas of 8 to 12 ft across the south- central basin, while fresh to strong E winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are evident at the north- central and part of the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft dominate the waters in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the eastern Caribbean Sea. Satellite imagery also shows Saharan Air across the Tropical Atlantic and into the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a 1021 mb high pressure in the western Atlantic near 27N65W and a 1007 mb Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the central Caribbean through this evening before gradually diminishing in areal coverage late tonight through Fri. Trades in the Gulf of Honduras and just north of Jamaica will reach fresh to locally strong speeds tonight. The aforementioned high is expected to weaken and open up into the western Atlantic ridge along 24N by Fri. This will yield moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the basin through the weekend, except the south-central basin, where fresh to strong winds and rough seas will remain.

Atlantic Ocean

An Atlantic ridge stretching from 1026 mb high near Madeira west- southwestward across 30N30W to a 1021 mb high near 27N65W then to northern Florida is promoting gentle with locally moderate anticyclonic winds, and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swell north of 22N between 35W and the central Bahamas/Florida coast. Across the Tropical Atlantic S of 22N between 35W and the southeast Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft were recently observed in satellite scatterometer and altimeter data. Saharan Air can be seen across this area between 08N and 20N, with dense African dust dominating the waters E of 30W to the African coast. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail across these waters E of 30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the current ridge over the western Atlantic will drift eastward and weaken slightly through the weekend, and support gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas south of 28N into nearly next week. For the waters north of 28N and east of 70W, two cold fronts migrating eastward across the north Atlantic will bring fresh to strong winds and rough seas tonight through Fri evening, then again from Sat night through Sun night.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling