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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front over the NW Gulf will move rapidly across the basin, shifting southeast of the area by Thu evening. The front will be followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected across the coastal waters of the NE Gulf, particularly between Apalachicola, FL and Mobile, AL tonight into early Thu morning. Conditions will improve across the Gulf region Thu night into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh to strong northerly winds may impact the basin late in the weekend. Winds may reach gale force near Tampico and Veracruz on Sun.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW waters by Thu morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force ahead and behind the front N of 29N by Thu evening. A reinforcing front may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend, bringing strong to near gale force winds and rough seas.

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then runs southwestward to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues westward from 06N15W to 02N30W to 04N46W. Convection is limited.

Gulf Of America

A Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force is in effect for the coastal waters of the NE Gulf. Please, read the Special Features section for more details.

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front is moving across the NW Gulf followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building seas. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted over the remainder of the NW and west-central Gulf per satellite derived wind data, with moderate seas. A surface trough extends across the SW Gulf, and runs from 24N95W to 18N94W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are blowing on the W side of the trough, including the vicinity of Veracruz where moderate seas are seen. A stationary front is analyzed over the Straits of Florida, and is generating a few showers. Multilayer clouds, with possible showers, are noted over most of the Gulf waters and Florida.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front over the NW Gulf will move rapidly across the basin, shifting southeast of the area by Thu evening. The front will be followed by increasing winds and building seas. Conditions will improve Thu night into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh to strong northerly winds may impact the basin late in the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 8 to 10 ft are in association with these winds offshore NW Colombia based on an altimeter pass. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the remainder of the east and central parts of the basin. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas dominate the NW Caribbean. A surface trough crosses the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Honduras. Some shower activity is observed near the trough. Elsewhere, patches of low level moisture, with possible showers, prevail.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong winds offshore of NW Colombia tonight, then return this weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail through tonight. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Thu, stall from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds and building seas across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning.

A stationary front runs northward from the Straits of Florida, parallel to the Florida east coast to beyond 31N78W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up near this boundary, including the northwest Bahamas. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are N of 25N and E of the front to about 76W while moderate to fresh W to NW winds follow the front. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Under the influence of this system, an area of fresh to strong NE winds is noted from 12N to 25N and E of 35W to the coast of W Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are within these winds based on a couple of altimeter passes. Moderate to locally fresh trades are observed across the tropical Atlantic with moderate to rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, are elsewhere. An upper-level low in the central Atlantic near 24N40W is triggering some shower activity.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will enter the NW waters by Thu morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force east and west of the front and N of 29N by Thu evening. A reinforcing front may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr