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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough is mostly over west Africa. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 05N between 17W and 25W.

Gulf Of America

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh S winds and 3-5 seas across the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through Fri as ridging prevails over the eastern basin. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the south-central basin, north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night through Fri as a trough develops daily over the region. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to move into the northern Gulf this weekend and sweep over the basin through early next week. Gale force winds and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Tampico and Veracruz Sun into Mon, and widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere in the wake of the front.

Caribbean Sea

The gradient between 1025 mb high pressure over Bermuda and 1011 mb low pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas off the coast of Colombia, along with fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere across the central Caribbean. Moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. No major thunderstorm activity is observed currently, although isolated showers are likely over the northeast Caribbean and off Panama.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south- central Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low. Winds may reach near-gale force each night offshore of northern Colombia, and rough seas are expected near and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE winds and occasionally rough seas will occur in the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon into early Sun. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the rest of the basin through the forecast period. Looking ahead, rough seas may develop east of the Lesser Antilles late this week as a N swell progresses through the central tropical Atlantic.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends southwestward from a hurricane-force extratropical low that is well south of Newfoundland, to the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and continues southwestward to 26N60W, where it becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas. Thunderstorm activity has ceased along the front, although showers are likely ongoing. A broad ridge is building in the wake of the front, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure area west of Bermuda near 31N68W. Moderate to fresh are active near the front west of 65W, with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere west of the front. Rough to very rough combined seas primarily in NW swell persist west of the front to 70W as well, with wave heights as high sas 15 ft near 31N55W. Farther east, a ridge extends from high pressure near the Azores southwestward to roughly 22N55W. Gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas are along the ridge axis, with moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted southeast of the ridge over the remainder of the Atlantic discussion area. Saharan dust is noted in the eastern Atlantic east of about 35W. Surface observations from the Cape Verde Islands are reporting dust.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas occurring east of 75W will prevail today, in the wake of a weakening front extending from the central tropical Atlantic through the central Bahamas. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft are expected north of 27N and east of 62W through late tonight. Seas will slowly subside from west to east tonight into early Fri. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will continue through tonight over the central basin as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to push offshore of the southeastern U.S. On Sun, and increasing winds and rapidly building seas are expected in the wake of the front through early next week.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen