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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough remains mostly over the Africa Continent. An ITCZ extends southwestward from 04N13W through 00N29W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted up to 200 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from northern Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft exist at the north-central Gulf, Florida Straits and eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the broad surface ridge will maintain mostly moderate to fresh E winds across the Gulf through Sat night. The ridge is expected to strengthen some through late Sun night while gradually shifting northward through early next week before weakening into midweek. A tightening pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure to its southeast associated with a frontal boundary will funnel pulsing fresh to strong E winds through the Straits of Florida and into the southeastern Gulf starting on Mon. Seas across the Gulf will be at a mostly moderate state, except reaching a rough state, at times, in the Straits of Florida beginning on Mon.

Caribbean Sea

A fair trade-wind regime persist across much of the Caribbean Sea. Strong to locally near-gale NE to ENE winds and seas at 5 to 9 ft are present at the south-central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Mostly fresh NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist at the lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, strong high pressure building southward from the western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient and increase winds over the basin. This is going to sustain strong winds over the south-central basin into early next week. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola starting on Sat night.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends southwestward from just east of Bermuda across 31N64W and Turks and Caicos Islands to eastern Cuba. Convergent southerly winds are triggering scattered moderate convection up to 210 nm southeast of this boundary east of 70W. A surface trough embedded within the trades is producing scattered showers east of the Lesser Antilles from 11N to 20N between 50W and 60W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are evident behind the cold front, except seas in the Bahamas are 5 to 7 ft. East of the front, fresh to strong SE to S winds and 8 to 10 ft are noted north of 28N between 52W and the front. To the south, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft in large NE to E swell prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong high pressure near the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast is building southward behind the aforementioned cold front. The pressure gradient between these two features will maintain mostly fresh NE winds west of the front through Sun. Winds become locally strong starting Sun night as the high pressure strengthens some. The winds then diminish back to mostly fresh starting Tue south of 28N as the high pressure weakens, with an associated ridge near 31N. Rough seas from large NE swell will linger into the start of next week between Bermuda and the Bahamas.

Posted 1 hour, 20 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan