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Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has its axis near 30W from 02S to 10N, and is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 03S to 13N between 20W and 37W.

A tropical wave is inland Venezuela with axis near 62W extending southward from 15N. This wave is moving westward at 5-10 kt. There is no convection associated with it in the SE Caribbean.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 11N16W and continues SW to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 00N33W to the coast of Brazil at 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01S to 05N between 38W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

A weak cold front extends from Apalachicola, Florida to the western Bay of Campeche this morning. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are occurring behind the front, except for fresh to strong N winds occurring offshore Veracruz per a recent scatterometer pass. Light to gentle winds are ahead of the front. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf, except for moderate seas to 6 ft offshore Veracruz.

For the forecast, the front will steadily move southeastward and extend from the Big Bend of Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche later this morning, then stall and dissipate on Wed. Winds will be generally moderate or weaker on either side of the front, except for fresh to locally strong offhsore Veracruz, Mexico through early this evening. High pressure and quiescent conditions will dominate on Wed and Thu. Looking ahead, another weak cold front should enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri. Otherwise, SE winds are forecast to reach mainly fresh speeds over the western half of the basin Sat.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the south-central to southwest Caribbean. Winds are locally near gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean along with 4-7 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a moderate gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the area and the Colombian Low will continue to force fresh to strong NE to E trades over the central basin through the weekend, with the strongest winds being offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are forecast across the remainder of forecast waters through Sat night. Large E swell with rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from Wed morning into early Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front extends from 31N73W to NE Florida near 30N81W this morning. Divergence aloft and abundant moisture inflow from the Gulf of America result in isolated to widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of 68W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh winds and moderate to locally rough seas S of 22N. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will extend along 30N and become stationary Wed morning, then it will lift north of our waters as a warm front by Thu morning. While winds should be fresh to locally strong west of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue to occur along the front. Looking ahead, another weak cold front will reach the Atlantic from the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W to 25N72W Fri morning, and progressing from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning. S winds ahead of the front and north of 27N will be fresh to strong.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos