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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 5 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Waves
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W, S of 11N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues southwestward to near 01N29W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 01N35W to near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 08N and E of 26W, and S of 04N between 31N47W.
Gulf Of America
Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail across much of the Gulf W of 87W, where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds and 1-3 ft seas are elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the eastern and central Gulf and lower pressures over Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh southeast winds in the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf through late tonight. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sat. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf coastal waters Thu morning, quickly stall Thu evening, then lift back to the north as a warm front Fri into Sat as high pressure ridging builds back in across the basin from the east. Another cold front may try to move into the northern Gulf waters late on Sun, and reach from north- central Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late on Mon, followed by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are likely to precede the fronts.
Caribbean Sea
Fresh to strong winds are in the south central Caribbean, where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through the forecast period, with similar conditions expected in the Gulf of Honduras diminishing Mon. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.
Atlantic Ocean
A a weak cold front extends from 31N59W to 26N69W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are SE of the front. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, prevail N of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are N of 29N within 60 nm east of the front. A surface trough extends from 22N26W to 26N36W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are found N of the trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift E of 55W early on Thu. Another weak cold front will move off northern Florida Thu night, gradually losing definition as it shifts across the northern waters through Sat. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, may precede this front as it emerges off the coast. Elsewhere, winds may pulse to moderate to fresh off northern Hispaniola, increasing to fresh to strong this weekend. Winds may freshen off northern Florida Sun night ahead of a stronger front. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will be in place through the forecast period allowing for generally quiet conditions across the area.
Posted 1 hour, 50 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Al
