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Special Features

Western And Central Atlantic Gale Warnings

A Strong Cold Front: A strong cold front moving off the southeast U.S. Coast today is going to produce widespread fresh to near gale-force SW to NW winds off eastern Florida and over the Bahamas. By this evening, these winds near 30N76W will reach gale-force, along with 9 to 11 ft seas. As the cold front pushes farther eastward Fri and Fri night, gale-force winds will spread into the central Atlantic, north of 28N between 60W and 70W. Peak seas will also build to between 12 and 15 ft. This area of gale-force winds and very rough seas will shift farther eastward on Sat, and then northeastward to north of 31N on Sat night.

A Deepening Low Pressure: A low pressure is expected to enter the Atlantic along the North Carolina coast on Fri night, then rapidly deepen as it track eastward into the western Atlantic. It will produce a large area of westerly gale-force winds north of 28N between 62W and 72W. Seas will peak at 12 to 18 ft. These winds and seas are going to move eastward, to north of 26N between 54W and 70W on Sun with seas build higher to between 22 and 29 ft. Once the low has pulled farther northeastward into the north-central Atlantic, conditions should gradually improve starting Sun night.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas at 12 to 16 ft in large NW swell, north of 27N and east of 45W will continue to slide eastward through tonight, and shift east of 35W by early Fri morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on all three events above.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea, then curves southwestward to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues west- southwestward from 03N19W to 00N38W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near both features from 01S to 07N between 10W and 33W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front curves southwestward from Cedar Key, Florida to just north of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to near gale-force N to NNE winds and rough seas to 11 ft follow this front. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends along the offshore waters from Tampico to Veracruz, generating some showers. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are ahead of the front across the E Bay of Campeche and the far SE basin.

For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to move southward across the Gulf waters through early this afternoon. The front will continue to bring fresh to near gale-force N wind and rough seas across much of the Gulf through early this evening when conditions are forecast to improve from west to east. High pressure will build over the NW Gulf in the wake of the front and will remain in control of the weather pattern across the basin through Mon.

Caribbean Sea

The tail of a stationary front extends from the northern Leeward Islands westward to the SE offshore waters of Puerto Rico. A surfarce trough extends from south-central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras and is generating scattered showers and tstms, including the Grand Cayman Islands. Otherwise, a tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic subropical ridge and the low pressure over NW Colombia continue to support a broad area of fresh to locally strong trade winds over the central Caribbean where seas are up to 9 ft.

For the forecast, the tail of the stationary front is forecast to dissipate this morning. A cold front, currently moving across the Gulf of America, will reach the NW Caribbean early this afternoon and will merge with a surface trough that currently extends from south-central Cuba to the offshore waters of E Honduras. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow this front, forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras tonight and from Haiti to Panama Fri morning where it will start to weaken. Fresh to strong N winds with rough seas in the SW Caribbean associated with the front will persist through Sat, diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds Sat night into Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for details on two Gale Warnings and Significant Swell.

A cold front extends from 31N20W to 25N35W to 22N48W where it stalls and then continues across the far SE offshore waters, to the northern Leeward Islands. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge centered by a 1024 mb high just E of Bermuda. Moderate to fresh SW winds are ongoing over the central and NE Florida offshore waters ahead of the new cold front. Winds of similar speed are along the cold/stationary boundary.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will begin to lift N today while weakening. A cold front will move off NE Florida today. Gale-force winds and rough seas are expected on either side of the front, across the waters N of 26N, from this evening through Fri evening. The front will reach from near Bermuda to Hispaniola by Fri morning, and from 30N55W to Puerto Rico Fri night into early Sat. Following this front, a strong low pressure building N of the forecast region could bring a second round of gale-force winds and very rough to high seas across the N waters N of 25N Sat through Sun.

Posted 1 hour, 47 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos