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Special Features

Western and Central Atlantic Large Swell: A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from near the Azores across 31N44W to 26N52W. A shear line continues from 26N52W to near the Windward Passage. Residual large NE swell along with wind waves are sustaining seas of 12 to 15 ft up to 300 nm northwest of the stationary front and shear line east of 66W. As both swell and wind waves decline further tonight through Wed morning, this should allow seas to drop below 12 ft on Wed afternoon.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the following websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtm and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough is confined to Africa. An ITCZ extends southwestward from off the Liberia coast at 03N14W across 00N30W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 00N to 05N between 10W and 25W.

Gulf Of America

A broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends southwestward across northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present across the Florida Straits. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the eastern Gulf through Sat night. Over the western half of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night. A cold front may enter the western Gulf Sunday.

Caribbean Sea

Strong to near gale-force ENE trades and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident off northwestern Colombia, while fresh to strong NE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the lee of Cuba, north-central and the rest of the south-central basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are seen in and southwest of the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through the weekend, pulsing to near gale at night through midweek. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu night.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the Special Features section for information about the large swell.

A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from near the Azores across 31N44W to 26N52W. A shear line continues from 26N52W to near the Windward Passage. Scattered showers are found near and up to 200 nm northwest of these features. A fre-frontal trough near 19N58W is triggering widely scattered showers from 20N to 22N between 55W and 68W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Besides the very rough seas mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong with locally near gale-force NE winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are up to 300 nm northwest of the boundary, except gentle to moderate SE winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are found north of 27N and west of 72W. To the east, north of 20N between 35W and the stationary front/shear line, moderate with locally fresh NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas in large northerly swells prevail. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas exist for the remainder of Atlantic from 00N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure will prevail across the western Atlantic into this weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas, are expected across most of the offshore forecast waters through the remainder of the week. Winds will diminish this weekend with seas slowly subsiding.

Posted 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan