Go to the WJXT homepage

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1019 mb high near 28N85W to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh southeast winds along with seas of 3 to 5 ft are present in the eastern Bay of Campeche and extending northward to near 23N. Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates gentle to moderate east to southeast winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place and slowly weaken through Sat, maintaining a weak pressure gradient across the basin. The pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin through Sat. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will result in a locally tighter pressure gradient to support a pulsing of fresh to strong winds during the evenings. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sat night through the early part of the week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon then dissipate through Tue.

Caribbean Sea

A mid to upper-level low dropping southward over the north- central Dominican Republic is helping to sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms near the Dominican Republic and over sections of the northeastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and vicinity waters. A surface trough extends from the western Atlantic to Hispaniola. Otherwise, a modest trade-wind regime is present across most of the basin. Moderate to fresh east- northeast to east-southeast winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the lee of Cuba, near the Windward Passage and near the ABC Islands. Latest scatterometer satellite data shows gentle to moderate east-southeast winds elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft with these winds.

For the forecast, the surface trough will move slowly westward and weaken through Sat. This feature will disrupt the typical weather pattern across the basin with a weaker than usual pressure gradient. This weaker pressure gradient will result in fresh trade winds and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia overnight, then mainly gentle to moderate winds through the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected over the remainder of the forecast area. Seas across the basin will slowly subside as the winds diminish. Fresh NE winds may develop early next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late- season cold front moving into Cuba.

Atlantic Ocean

A mid to upper-level trough curves southwestward from southeast of Bermuda to 24N60W, to a mid to upper-level low over the north- central Dominican Republic, and southwestward from there to the southwest Caribbean. A surface trough extends from 29N65W to 20N71W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 20N to 22N between 68W and 70W. To the E, a 1024 mb high center is analyzed north of the area at 33N48W. High pressure continues to dominate the wind flow pattern across the basin, generally north of about 18N and east of the Lesser Antilles and also north of 21N and west of 61W. The related gradient is providing for light to gentle winds north of 26N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over these waters. Farther south from 20N to 26N and between 35W and the Bahamas, gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are present along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in an east swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will move little through Fri, then dissipate through Sat. High pressure will build into the area from the east following the trough. A cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue.

Posted 20 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era