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Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through next week, with gale-force winds occurring again tonight offshore of Colombia. The ridge N of the region will gradually shift southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain strong to near gale-force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Seas will build into the 12 to 13 ft range during the time of the gale-force winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands, with axis near 29W from 06N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is where the wave meets the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is behind the wave axis covering the waters from 07N to 13N between 17W and 25W.

The tropical wave previously located along 47W is relocated farther E near 40W based on the tropical wave diagnostic, satellite imagery and scatterometer data. Satellite imagery show a broad cyclonic circulation near the northern end of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is also where the wave meets the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is analyzed east of the Lesser Antilles along 59W/60W, extending from 05N to 20N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave axis.

Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will be possible during the middle to latter part of next week while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal south of Dakar near 14N17W and continues westward to near 11N38W. The ITCZ extends from 11N41W to 10N54W to 11N58W. Most of the convective activity across the area is related to the tropical waves.

Gulf Of America

A 1024 mb high pressure located just NW of Bermuda extends a ridge across the SE of the United States into the Gulf region. A surface trough has moved westward across Florida, and now extends from northern Florida to near 25N85W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas across the basin, except for moderate NE winds across the eastern Bay of Campeche. Showers and thunderstorms continue to dot the Gulf waters, more concentrated from 23N to 27N between 87W and 94W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity.

For the forecast, the surface trough extending into the eastern Gulf will support scattered showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon as the trough moves inland. Similar activity is expected in the Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate most of the basin through late Tue. This will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters N of Colombia.

The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure located NW of Bermuda near 33N68W and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 12 ft across much of this area. Buoy 42058 located near 14N76W is reporting seas of 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are over the E Caribbean while gentle to moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are moderate with these winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are between Cuba and Jamaica, across the Cayman Islands and regional waters, and south of western Cuba, including the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the pressure between a 1024 mb Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week, with gale-force winds occurring again tonight offshore of Colombia. The ridge N of the region will gradually shift southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain strong to near gale-force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to locally strong speeds during the evenings and nights in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. The Atlantic ridge looks to shift farther southward later next week, which may act to increase easterly trade winds again across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the Atlantic waters north of the Bahamas and W of 75W, following a surface trough currently located over northern Florida and the eastern Gulf of America. A broad ridge, centered on a 1024 mb high pressure located just NW of Bermuda, dominates the western Atlantic supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Hispaniola to about 22N. An Azores High of 1024 mb dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters producing fresh to strong NE winds between the Canary Islands and offshore Western Sahara, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Saharan air and dust covers much of the Atlantic north of 12N and east of 60W, and most of the east and central Caribbean based on the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Tracking Product from CIMSS.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough extending across northern Florida will shift NW and further inland today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring E of the trough to about 75W will shift northwestward today, then persist N of 30N through Sun. Otherwise, a 1024 mb Bermuda High and an attendant ridge will shift slightly southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening and night. The Atlantic ridge then looks to drop a bit farther southward later next week, which may result in stronger easterly winds.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Gr