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Tropical Waves

The tropical wave is along 43W, from 10N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen along the wave axis. The wave continues to move through a hostile dry environment which inhibits other impacts.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, then continues SW to near 03N22.5W. The ITCZ extends from 03N22.5W to 00N38W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted from 01N to 05N between 17W and 26W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05S01N between 21W and 39W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends across the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found N of the front affecting the SW Florida offshore waters and the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are found south of 27.5N, except for strong NW winds offshore of Veracruz. Seas within these winds are 5 to 8 ft, except for seas to 10 ft offshore Veracruz. Elsewhere, light to gentle and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will wash out by Mon morning. Strong NW winds offshore of Veracruz will diminish overnight. Elsewhere, fresh N to NE winds will continue behind the front through Mon. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night into Thu. A quiet period is expected to start by the end of the week.

Caribbean Sea

Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, except for strong wind over the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Seas within these winds are 4 to 7 ft. Gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds prevail over the NW part of the basin along with seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered moderate convection, associated with the equatorial trough, continues to flare up in the SW Caribbean offshore Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean for the next several days. The remnants of a frontal boundary will drift across the western caribbean through Tue. SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will increase up to strong speeds Tue through Fri.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N64W to the Florida Straits. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the front. Recent satellite scatterometer data depict moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of the front, with 4 to 8 ft seas. Elsewhere across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, high pressure prevails, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure located near 25N57W. To the east, a 1012 mb low pressure north of the area and a surface trough are supporting scattered moderate convection north of 25N between 21W and 30W. The pressure gradient between these features combined with lower pressures over W Africa, is promoting an area of moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas between W Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are seen across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from 31N59W to a low pressure area forming near 27N77W early on Mon. The low will ride along the frontal boundary to be just south of Bermuda Tue morning with the front extending southwestward to the central Bahamas. The front should be dissipating by Wed morning. Expect fresh to strong NE winds north of the front through tomorrow. Conditions across the forecast waters should become quiescent Tue through Thu. A weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu night and steadily move eastward through the end of the week.

Posted 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv