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TRACKING THE TROPICS
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TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Roberts
Special Features
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela into early next week. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale- force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak to around 14 ft off Colombia Sat night.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
Tropical Waves
The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W, south of 16N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the wave axis.
The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W south of 19N into the eastern north Pacific, moving westward at about 15-20 kt. Active convection is along the wave axis.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N28W. The ITCZ continues from 08N28W to 09N53W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to 11N between 16W and 23W.
Gulf Of America
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the western and northern Gulf. A relatively weak pressure gradient over the area is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds, along with slight seas, across the region.
For the forecast, ridging will dominate into next week, supporting mainly gentle SE winds. Fresh E winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night.
Caribbean Sea
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low is supporting strong winds over the central Caribbean, reaching near gale force off Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure over northern South America will support strong trades over the central Caribbean through next week. Winds will pulse to gale-force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Sat night. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong each evening through early next week.
Atlantic Ocean
A surface trough extends from 31N53W to 30N60W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough. Moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are N of the trough. Farther east, a cold front enters the waters near 31N18W and extends to 28N32W to 30N36W. Gentle to moderate winds are N of the front. High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1024 mb high near 28N38W, and a 1024 mb high near 26N64W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are moderate or less across the discussion waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the period, supporting moderate to fresh trades S of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong winds are expected each N offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. An upper-level low pressure will move W from the Bahamas and Florida through the weekend, bringing thunderstorms with locally strong winds and frequent lightning.
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Al
