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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends to 04.5N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N18W to 06.5N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 50W and 53W.

Gulf Of America

Ridging extends over the Gulf, stemming from a 1017 mb high centered near 26N87.5W, and a 1018 mb high centered near 26N83W. Moderate E winds are noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche, and moderate S winds prevail in the western Gulf offshore of northeastern Mexico. Seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail over the basin.

For the forecast, widespread fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas are expected to develop west of 90W tonight as the pressure gradient increases between ridging over the eastern basin and a developing storm system in the central United States. Strong winds will pulse offshore of south Texas and northeastern Mexico tonight through Thu, and locally rough seas may accompany these winds. Moderate to fresh SE winds will expand eastward over much of the Gulf on Thu, with these winds continuing through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early this weekend. Widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front as it sweeps over the basin into early next week. Gale force winds will be possible offshore of Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Sat into early Mon.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough extends from 19N75W to 15N76W, and scattered showers are noted near this feature. Elsewhere, a 1010 mb low is centered over northwestern Colombia, supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in the south-central basin. Locally fresh E winds are occurring south of Hispaniola. Weak ridging extends over the rest of the Caribbean, supporting moderate or weaker trade winds and 2 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, strong to occasionally near-gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia through this weekend as low pressure prevails over the region. Rough seas will occur near and to the west of these winds. Strong winds are also expected each afternoon and evening in the Gulf of Venezuela starting on Thu. Fresh NE to E winds will occur over the central Caribbean today, including through the Windward Passage, with widespread fresh winds expanding over much of the basin through late week as the pressure gradient increases between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola nightly starting on Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N45.5W southwestward to a 1012 mb low near 21N58W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near this front, north of 18N between 39N and 57W. Fresh to strong S winds and rough seas to 9 ft are occurring to the east of the front, north of 27N. Farther west, moderate NE winds and locally rough seas are occurring east of 65W as high pressure prevails to the north. A surface trough is noted from 31N75W to 28N78W, supporting moderate to fresh SW winds offshore of northern and central Florida. Elsewhere, a 1035 mb high is building north of the waters near 37.5N23W, and fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft are occurring near and downwind of the Canary Islands. Fresh trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and rough seas occurring east of 65W will slowly diminish this morning. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds will occur north of 29N and west of 70W today as a surface trough develops to the north and moves eastward. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are then expected over the northwest tropical Atlantic on Thu as a weak pressure gradient develops. High pressure building off the coast of the eastern United States on Fri will support moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and building seas over the region through this weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. On Sun, leading to increasing winds and building seas in the wake of the front.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams