TRACKING THE TROPICS
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 3 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Bucci
Special Features
Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of NE Florida by Sat morning. The front will reach from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning, and from 31N49W to Hispaniola by Mon morning before dissipating over the SE waters on Tue. Strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough to very rough seas are expected west of the front from Sat morning through Sun morning.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07.5N12.5W and continues southwestward to 02S29W. The ITCZ extends from 02S29W to 02.5S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 10W and 33W.
Gulf Of America
A 1023 mb high pressure center is over the NE Gulf with a surface trough over the SW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the NE Gulf, and 2-3 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist over the northern Gulf through tonight. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the middle of the next week. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf by Sat morning, reach from south Florida to near SE Louisiana by Sun morning, and move southeast of the basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front over the northern Gulf on Sat morning. Then, similar wind speeds are forecast over the eastern Gulf late Sat through Sun. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough to sustain fresh east winds and moderate to rough seas across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida through the middle of the next week.
Caribbean Sea
The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over these waters. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia through early next week. Then, high pressure following a strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from Sat night through the early part of next week.
Atlantic Ocean
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING.
High pressure prevails across much of the discussion waters. A surface trough extends from 31N54W to N of Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of this trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail across the discussion waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will dominate the forecast waters through tonight supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas. A strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, reach from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning, and from 31N49W to Hispaniola by Mon morning before dissipating over the SE waters on Tue. Strong high pressure will follow the front. As the strong high pressure moves eastward across the Atlantic, expect fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across most of the forecast region likely through Tue night into Wed.
Posted 22 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al

