Go to the WJXT homepage

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W from 02S to 10N, and is moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 60W from 15N southward to the coastal border of Venezuela and Guyana. This wave is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen S of 10N and W of 56W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 11N16W and continues SW to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 02S32W to the coast of Brazil at 01N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen S of 04N and W of 35W. More scattered moderate convection is seen S of 06N between 16W and 26W.

Gulf Of America

A weak cold front extends from the south-central LA coast to the NE Mexican coast near 25N98W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from offshore Panama City, FL to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring near Veracruz, enhanced by the trough offshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the NE Gulf. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are occurring behind the front as well as along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to locally strong N winds are occurring offshore Veracruz per a recent scatterometer pass. Winds are gentle to moderate or weaker elsewhere. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak cold front currently over the NW Gulf will steadily move southeastward and extend from the Big Bend of Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Tue morning, then stall and dissipate on Wed. Winds are generally moderate or weaker on either side of the front, though showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight in the vicinity of the front. High pressure and quiescent conditions will dominate on Wed and Thu. Looking ahead, another weak cold front should enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri.

Caribbean Sea

Dry weather conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea, except for some convection near and over Panama due to the extension of the Pacific monsoon trough along about 10N. The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the south-central to southwest Caribbean. Winds are locally near gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela, per a recent scatterometer pass. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean along with 4-7 ft seas, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a moderate gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the area and the Colombian Low will continue to force fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are forecast across the remainder of forecast waters. Large E swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from Wed morning into the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

Divergence aloft and abundant moisture inflow from the Gulf of America result in isolated to widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters N of 26N and W of 70W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh winds and moderate to locally rough seas S of 25N. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere, except for locally rough seas N of 29N between 20W and 25W in northerly swells.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will reach the waters off of NE Florida early Tue morning, extend along 30N and become stationary Wed morning, then it will lift north of our waters as a warm front by Thu morning. While winds should be fresh or weaker on either side of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms should occur along the front. Additionally, trades just north of Hispaniola will pulse fresh to strong tonight and Tue night. Looking ahead, another weak cold front will reach the Atlantic from the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W to 25N72W Fri morning, and progressing from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning. S winds ahead of the front and north of 28N will be fresh to strong.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams