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Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between broad western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades along with rough seas over the south-central Caribbean Sea during the next several days. These trades are forecast to reach near-gale to gale-force tonight off northwest Colombia with seas building to a peak of 12 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 21W, south of 10N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 05N and between 20W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 57W, south of 10N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is enhancing convection in NE South America.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 12N16W to 08N17W. The ITCZ extends from 08N17W to 04N20W and then from 02N22W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 05N and between 25W and 40W.

Gulf Of America

Divergence aloft is producing widespread cloudiness, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the western and northern Gulf waters. The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic extends westward into the Gulf, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft south of 25N and between 86W and 93W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front will move off the Texas coast early Mon morning, with thunderstorms ahead of it. This front will move SE and stretch from near Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche Tue, then stall over the far SE basin Wed. Ahead of the front, fresh to locally strong SE winds will pulse tonight and Mon night offshore the Yucatan Peninsula as a surface trough moves offshore.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section above for information about expected gale conditions offshore Colombia tonight.

Dry weather conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea. The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to near gale- force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a tight gradient between strong high pressure centered over the north Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Fri night, except Wed when winds are forecast to be moderate to fresh. However, gale-force NE winds are forecast to pulse tonight offshore Colombia. In the Gulf of Honduras, E to SE winds will pulse at night tonight and Mon night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are forecast across the eastern Caribbean through the period with moderate or weaker winds prevailing elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

Divergence aloft and a weak surface trough result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 74W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an extensive subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft south o 25N and west of 40W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is expected to reach the waters off NE Florida Mon and move eastward while weakening Tue and Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front before it weakens and conditions improve Tue night. Along and ahead of the front, thunderstorms, some strong, are expected. Starting mid-week, high pressure building over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh SE-S winds and moderate to rough seas E of 70W.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado