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Special Features

Atlantic Storm Warning: A strong arctic cold front extends from the low pressure to 31N71W and southwestward to east central Cuba. Gale force winds are affecting the waters outside the storm conditions north of about 24N. Seas peaking to around 28 ft are expected over the NW water through late tonight. Seas of 12 ft and greater cover the waters north of about 26N and between 60W and 80W. The storm force winds are forecast to lift north of the area by early this evening, with the gale force winds diminishing late tonight into early Mon. The cold front will sweep across the forecast waters through Mon night, then slow down and weaken as it moves southeastward across the eastern waters Tue before stalling and weakening to a trough that shifts westward Wed through Thu. Seas across the forecast domain will slowly subside starting at midweek as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward near 29N. Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the basin, including outside of the storm and gale condition affected zones, due to the expansive area of strong to near gale force winds and associated rough seas. Please keep up with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on both events.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near Kamsar, then reaches southwestward to 03N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N30W to 02N40W and to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W and 29W, and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-50W.

Gulf Of America

A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure building across the area and the recent cold front now well southeast of the Gulf is bring near gale northwest to north winds east of 89W, while fresh to strong north winds are between 89W and 95W. Gale force northwest winds of 25 to 35 are near the NE Gulf coast region. Both buoy and altimeter satellite data indicate seas of 10 to 16 ft S of 27N east of 91W, and seas of 8 to 12 ft S of 27N between 91W and 95W. Lower seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere west of 91W. The arctic air mass infiltrating the basin is leading to the production of broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds east of about 93W. Overcast low stratus type clouds and fog patches are evident to the southwest of a line from 25N97.5W to 20N94.5W.

For the forecast, the seas over the eastern Gulf will subside to 8 to 12 ft today as the winds there diminish. Winds and seas elsewhere will diminish from NW to SE across the Gulf through tonight as the high pressure begins to shift eastward across the northern Gulf. Another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Wed, reach from the Florida Panhandle to the western Gulf by Wed afternoon, and from southwest Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Thu afternoon, then to SE of the basin by early Thu evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected behind this next frontal system.

Caribbean Sea

A strong arctic cold front extends from eastern Cuba to 18N81W and to along the northern coast of Honduras to just inland southern Belize. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds and rough to very rough seas are found behind the boundary. To the east, a trough extends from eastern eastern Hispaniola to 15N74W and to northwest Colombia. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are evident between the trough and cold front. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean and south of 13N between the aforementioned trough and Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will overtake the trough this morning as it reaches from near Windward Passage to near southern Panama, and reach from Puerto Rico to NE Colombia by this evening. It will then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to the northwest section of Venezuela Mon and Mon night. Strong to near gale force north winds and rough seas are expected behind this front. By early Tue, fresh to strong northwest to north winds will prevail roughly west of a line from the Virgin Islands to NE Colombia to central Cuba along with seas to near 12 ft. These winds and seas will likely diminish in coverage on Wed and further on Thu as another cold front approaches the northwestern Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for details on ongoing storm conditions for sections of the western Atlantic.

Outside of the Storm Warning area, a cold front enters the north- central Atlantic waters near 31N39W and continues southwestward to 26N52W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas are found ahead of the front to 30W and north of 29N. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1025 mb high center located near 28N28W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and rough seas are found south of a line from Morocco to the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh southeast winds and rough seas are also evident from 20N and 25N and between 50W and 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, please see the Special Features section.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre