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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.5W and extends S then SW to 03N22W to 02N40W. The ITCZ continues from 02N41W to 02.5N47W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5N51W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 22W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 04N between 22W and 39W.

Gulf Of America

A couple of weak troughs are analyzed over the N and NE-Gulf. Otherwise, broad high pressure prevails. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 ft or less are east of 87W and gentle to moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas are west of 87W.

For the forecast, a ridge across the E Gulf waters, combined with a surface trough along the coast of Mexico reaching offshore Veracruz will support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through the middle of the week. In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northern Gulf waters Wed night into Thu.

Caribbean Sea

A relatively weak pressure pattern exists across the basin, with light to gentle E-SE winds, except gentle to moderate east of 70W and also west of 85W. Seas are 2 ft or less between 70W and 85W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere, locally higher in Atlantic passages.

For the forecast, a surface trough meandering across the Atlantic water north of the Greater Antilles will contribute to a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are expected. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu as high pressure builds again N of the area, behind a cold front moving across the western Atlantic.

Atlantic Ocean

A pair of dissipating frontal boundaries are over the SW N Atlantic offshore waters. A trough extends from 31N43W to 51N53W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are north of 24N within 240 nm ahead of the trough. Otherwise, gentle of moderate winds dominate the open waters. Except locally fresh near the coast of Africa north of 14N and east of 20W. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW swell north of 28N between 40W and 55W. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 67W, and 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, an old frontal trough lingering N of the Greater Antilles will remain in place through late today and gradually dissipate by Mon. Winds and seas will continue to diminish through this evening behind a weakening frontal boundary located over the NE waters. A cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE Florida by tonight, extend from near Bermuda to South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Tue night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected N of 27N in the wake of the front through Mon night. Looking ahead, another cold front will likely move off NE Florida late Thu or Thu night.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky