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Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The Bermuda High will shift southward to the SW N Atlantic waters over the weekend, which will tighten the pressure gradient in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean, thus resulting in the acceleration of winds from fresh to strong to fresh to near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Regional effects will further enhance the winds to gale force offshore Colombia at night Fri and Sat, thus building seas from rough to very rough. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis near 33W, extending from 06N to 16N, and moving west at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 31W and 39W.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis near 48W, extending from 07N to 18N, and moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the far W Caribbean with axis near 87W, extending southward from 19N into the E Pacific waters, and moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 11N30W to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 10N40W to 09N45W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 08N49W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection associated with two tropical waves in the section above, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is offshore W Africa associated with the next tropical wave forecast to emerge off the coast later this morning.

Gulf Of America

A 1025 mb high located just NW of Bermuda extends a ridge across northern Florida SW into the Gulf, except for the Bay of Campeche where a surface trough is generating scattered showers and supporting moderate to fresh E winds along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, return flow is gentle to moderate and seas slight.

For the forecast, surface ridging from the Bermuda High will dominate across most of the Gulf through late Mon, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds N of 22N along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are forecast for this portion of the basin through Mon night.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high located just NW of Bermuda and relatively lower pressure in northern South America continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere over the E Caribbean, the Gulf of Honduras and in the lee side of Cuba. Seas are slight to moderate over the NW basin and moderate over the E Caribbean. In terms of shower activity, a surface trough starting to move across the Turks and Caicos is supporting scattered showers and tstms in the Windward Passage while the E extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough is supporting similar convection offshore Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Panama.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through Mon night. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speed at night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times this weekend with the increase in wind speed. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period, except over the weekend when winds are likely to pulse to strong speed. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh easterlies will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

Surface ridging from the Azores-Bermuda Highs dominate the subtropical Atlantic waters, which is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds between 23W and 60W. Over the far NE Atlantic, strong N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the passages of the Canary Islands while a surface trough moving across the Turks and Caicos is supporting fresh to strong winds and scattered heavy showers over the Bahamas offshores.

For the forecast west of 55W, an upper-level low NE of Freeport will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore E Florida and in the Great Bahama Bank through early this evening. However, a westward moving surface trough over the central and southern Bahamas offshores, will resume the shower activity across the Florida seaboard and offshores Fri morning before shifting west of the area Fri night into early Sat. Aside from the shower activity, the surface trough will bring fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas across the Bahamas offshores through tonight. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approaches of the Windward Passage through the period, reaching strong speeds Sun night into Mon as the Bermuda High shifts southward.

Posted 1 hour, 50 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos