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Special Features

Gale Warning and Western and Central Atlantic Ocean High Seas: A cold front continues to move slowly southeastward across the basin, extending from 31N47W to 22N68W, then transitions to a shear line that extends through the central Bahamas to near Andros Island. Strong to near-gale force NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas of 12 to 18 ft cover much of the area north of the front. NE winds will briefly reach gale force in the NE offshore waters N of 27N and E of 58W this evening. Thereafter, the front will stall and gradually weaken before it dissipates over the eastern offshore waters Tue. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front, which will support the continuation of fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas across most of the offshore forecast waters through the end of the week. However, seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft Wed night.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the following websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning earlier for the marine zone of Agadir near the coast of Morocco through 30/18 UTC, and has allowed it to expire. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12.5N16.5W, then reaches southwestward to near 01.5N30W. The ITCZ begins near 01.5N30W then continues to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 06N between 00W and 18W, and S of 03.5N between 20W and 34W.

Gulf Of America

An upper level trough across the NW Gulf is supporting a cluster of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 25.5N between 87W and 90W and extends inland across SE Mississippi. Strong high pressure over the NW Atlantic waters extends a ridge W-SW across the entire basin and into Texas and eastern Mexico. This strong ridge is supporting mostly moderate E to SE winds east of 90W. Except locally fresh E winds through the Straits of Florida, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds W of 90W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft E of 90W and 2 to 4 ft W of 90W.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds, and moderate seas are expected over the E Gulf through Fri night. Over the western half of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for locally strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night.

Caribbean Sea

A tight pressure gradient between a strong Western Atlantic ridge north of a cold front through the Bahamas, and a 1010 mb low over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds along with moderate to rough seas over the NW, SW, and central Caribbean. Afternoon altimeter data showed seas 10-11 ft near the coast of Colombia. Moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the E Caribbean. Scattered moderate showers are noted across the Gulf of Honduras and across the coastal waters of Cost Rica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night, pulsing to near gale force at night through midweek. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu night.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the Special Features section for more information about a gale warning, and associated very rough seas occurring north of the cold front.

A cold front extends from 31N47W to 22N68W, then transitions to a shearline that extends through the central Bahamas to near Andros Island. 1035 mb high pressure located just NW of Bermuda is building behind the front, and supports strong to near gale-force NE winds, north of the front, from 48W to the Bahamas, then becomes fresh to strong through Cuba and south Florida. An area of gale-force winds has also been confirmed by satellite observations, north of 30N between 52W and 54W. Rough to very rough seas of 10 to 18 ft are found with these winds, and dominated seas north of the front, except for the northwest zones N of the Bahamas. Ahead of the front, a weak surface trough extends from 30N46W to 17N56W. Scattered showers prevail north of 25N between the front and 42W. Otherwise, a 1039 mb high NE to the Azores Islands extends a ridge to the eastern Atlantic subtropical waters and supports fresh to near gale-force NE to W winds and rough to very rough seas to 14 ft N of 23N and E of 30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will begin to stall from 31N45W to the Windward Passage Tue morning and dissipate over the SE waters Tue night. Strong to near- gale force NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas are expected north the front, briefly reaching minimal gale force in the NE offshore waters N of 27N and E of 57W this evening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas, are then expected across most of the offshore forecast waters the second half of the week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling