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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 03N11W to 02N50W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 04N southward east of 22W.

Gulf Of America

The combination of surface ridging over the E Gulf and lower pressure over Mexico is resulting in a pressure gradient that is supporting moderate to fresh S to SE winds basin-wide. Seas are slight east of 86W and moderate elsewhere. The S flow in the W Gulf is lifting smoke from agricultural fires in S Mexico northward. Aside from lower visibility from the smoke mainly over the SW portion of the basin, dense fog is ongoing over the N Gulf waters in the coastal waters of W Louisiana and the upper Texas coast.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through Fri. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the south- central basin, north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night through Fri as a trough develops daily over the region. A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf this weekend and shift across the basin through early next week. Gale force winds and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. Widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere in the wake of the front.

Caribbean Sea

A broad subtropical ridge centered southeast of Bermuda continues to affect the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to strong NE to E trades and rough seas in the S-central and portions of the SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E trades and moderate seas are found in the N-central and E Caribbean. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh SE winds and seas to 6 ft are ongoing.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south-central Caribbean through this weekend. Winds may reach near-gale force each night offshore of northern Colombia, and rough seas are expected near and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE winds and occasionally rough seas will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras into early Sun. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the rest of the Caribbean basin through the forecast period. Rough seas will develop east of the Lesser Antilles tonight into the weekend as N swell progresses through the central tropical Atlantic.

Atlantic Ocean

The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of both the Bermuda and Azores Highs, which extend a ridge across the tropical Atlantic waters. Between both ridges, a stationary front extends from 31N39W to 24N70W. Over the SW North Atlantic waters, winds are mainly moderate or weaker, however rough seas to 11 ft prevails east of 65W to about 34W. Over the far E subtropical Atlantic, winds are fresh to locally strong, including the Canary Islands, and seas are 5 to 8 ft. Over the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are present west of 35W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas east of 65W will subside from west to east through early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of northern Florida into this weekend. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. A strong cold front will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. On Sun, with increasing winds and rapidly building seas expected in the wake of the front through early next week.

Posted 1 hour, 17 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Levine/Nepaul/Landsea