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Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades across the eastern Caribbean through today, and over the central part of the basin through Wed night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the night-time hours tonight and again Wed night. Seas of 8-12 ft are expected with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for northerly gales with severe gusts through 11/0000 UTC at least. Very rough seas are likely with these winds. Please refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 11N15W, then continues SSW to near 02N21W. Then the ITCZ extends from 02N21W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 00N to 03N between 11W and 23.5W, and from 02.5S to 02N between 35W and 49W.

Gulf Of America

A Dense Fog Advisory is once again in effect for the NE Gulf coastal waters until around 1500 UTC with coastal and nearshore observations reporting fog. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the Gulf waters, with a 1023 mb high pressure located over the NE Gulf near 29N84W. Light to gentle SE-S winds are found in the NE Gulf N of 26N and E of 90W along with seas of 1-2 ft, with moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and 3-5 ft seas across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending across the basin will prevail through midweek. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front will impact the northwestern Gulf beginning Wed night, before moving across the basin through Fri night. In the wake of the front, winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds and seas will build to 7 to 10 ft through Thu night with conditions improving thereafter as ridging gradually rebuilds across the basin.

Caribbean Sea

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds are across the central and eastern Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Similar wind speeds are also observed across the Windward Passage. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and the Atlantic high pressure. Winds are moderate to fresh across the remainder of the basin, except for light winds in far SW portions near the coasts of Costa Rica and western Panama. Rough seas of 8-10 ft prevail in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, and are a bit more moderate at 6-8 ft in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate seas are noted in the NW Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba where slight seas are noted. Locally rough seas are near Atlantic passages. Passing showers dot much of the east and central portions of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern basin through Tue, and the central basin through Wed night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale- force during the night-time hours Tue night and Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will linger in the S-central Caribbean into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage and south of Haiti through Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Lee of Cuba through Wed night. Large easterly trade- wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through early Thu. Marine conditions will improve slightly but temporarily by the end of the week as the pressure gradient weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the NW Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper-level low is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters from 21N to 31N between 34W and 42W. A surface trough is analyzed in this area and runs from 31N40.5W to 22N40W. Fresh to strong SE winds are on the E side of the trough axis, as well as from 28N to 31N to the W of the trough to 45W. A ridge continues to dominate the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, with a 1028 mb high pressure located E of Bermuda near 32.5N58W, and a 1035 mb high pressure situated over the Azores. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong winds N of 15N and E of 30W, including the Canary Islands. Strong to minimal gale-force N winds are noted per scatterometer data near Morocco. Moderate to fresh to locally strong trade winds are south of 25N and west of 45W, becoming moderate SE to S winds north of the Bahamas and west of 70W. Moderate to rough seas in E swell are noted in this region of fresh winds, as well as east of the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 25N through midweek, reaching strong north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast Bahamas through this afternoon. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a cold front. That front will move offshore Thu night with fresh to strong winds and building seas behind it, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Fri. High pressure ridging will build across the basin for the end of the week into the weekend.

Posted 14 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky