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Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 4 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Bucci
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
A monsoon trough stays mostly over the African Continent. To the south, an ITCZ meanders westward from 04N15W through 00N30W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 10W and 50W.
Gulf Of America
A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1016 mb high near the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are seen over the western Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas exist at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will slowly weaken today. A weak pressure gradient across the basin will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin today. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf tonight through the early part of the week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon then dissipate into mid week.
Caribbean Sea
Aided by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, widely scattered showers are found across the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist across the eastern and central basin. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin.
For the forecast, a weaker than usual pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds through midweek next week. Fresh NE winds may develop early next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late-season cold front moving into Cuba.
Atlantic Ocean
A surface trough runs from 30N71W to the central Bahamas. Patchy showers are seen up to 30 nm along either side of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for any additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A large, 1023 mb high near 32N48W is dominating much of the western and central Atlantic. Light to gentle winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are present north of 25N between 35W and 45W. For the remainder of the Atlantic basin east of 35W, moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will dissipate today. High pressure will build into the area from the east in the wake of the trough. A cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon, from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue, before stalling and dissipating along roughly 22N through midweek.
Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan
