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Special Features

Central Atlantic Large Swell: A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N45W to 25N57W. A shear line curves westward from 25N57W to off northern Hispaniola. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that near-gale NE winds, up to 30 kt, prevail in the vicinity of the front. These winds will continue to weaken as the front dissipates gradually today. Large, long-period northerly swell is maintaining seas at 12 to 16 ft up behind the boundary to 69W. Seas to 8 ft extends within 200 nm east of the front and also between 69W and 77W. This northerly swell will steadily decline over the next couple of days, allowing seas to gradually subside, possibly dropping below 12 ft on Wed evening. However, rough to locally very rough seas will prevail through possibly early next week.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtm for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 02N13W to 00N33W and to 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N and between 15W and 35W.

Gulf Of America

A broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas east of 90W. Gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas are prevalent west of 90W. Convergent low-level winds sustain a few showers south of SE Louisiana and in the SW Gulf waters, with generally dry weather conditions dominating the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the E Gulf through Sat night. Over the western half of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night.

Caribbean Sea

The strong high pressure system north of the islands supports fresh to strong easterly winds off southern Hispaniola and Windward Passage, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are occurring in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident in the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. Pockets of low-level moisture traverse the Caribbean waters, producing isolated, fast- moving showers. The strongest convection is seen off Costa Rica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through the forecast period, pulsing to near gale at night through midweek. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu nigh.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the Special Features section for more information about the large swell.

A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N45W and continues southwestward to 25N57W, where it transitions into a shear line to just off northern Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm of these boundaries. The strong pressure gradient between the robust ridge to the north and the lower pressures associated with the front and shear line sustain fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds over much of the SW North Atlantic waters behind the front and shear line. Please see the Special Features section for info about the swell producing rough to very rough seas.

A large plume of Saharan dust envelops the far NE Atlantic, especially north of 22N and east of 20W. Mariners in these waters should use caution due to reduced visibility. The central and eastern Atlantic are under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas are found north of 22N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, near gale force NE winds will prevail in the vicinity of the aforementioned front today. The front will dissipate by Tue. Strong high pressure is building in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas, are expected across most of the offshore forecast waters the second half of the week.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado