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Special Feature

Meteo-France has issued Gale warnings for the marine zones of Agadir from 12/09Z through 13/00Z, and Tarfaya from 12/15Z through 13/00Z. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast product, listed on the website at https://wwmiws.wmo.int. For more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border Gambia and southern Senegal, then extends southwestward to 02N25W. An ITCZ continues from 02N25W across 00N30W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found near the ITCZ from 10N to 13N near the Africa coast from Guinea-Bissau northward to Gambia, and from 02S to 04N between 20W and 25W. Similar convection is also seen up to 230 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1025 mb high near the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh with locally strong NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the northwestern Gulf, north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the Florida Straits. Gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted at the northeastern Gulf and the western Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high will maintain mostly moderate to fresh E winds across the Gulf through tonight. It is expected to strengthen some through late Sun night, then weaken into midweek next week, while shifting southward over the western Atlantic. The ridge will persist across the Gulf through this period. A tightening pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure to its southeast associated with a frontal boundary will funnel pulsing fresh to strong E winds through the Florida Straits and into the southeastern Gulf starting on Sun. Seas across the Gulf will mostly be moderate, except reaching rough at times in the Florida Straits beginning on Mon.

Caribbean Sea

A robust trade-wind pattern continues across much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are causing scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms off the coast of Costa Rica. Latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer and earlier altimetery data reveal fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft at the south-central basin, lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist at the north-central and northeastern basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Venezuela.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will increase winds across the Caribbean Sea, leading to strong winds and rough seas to 10 ft over the south-central basin into early next week. Fresh to strong NE winds and rising seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola starting tonight. Winds and seas will diminish late next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A nearly stationary front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda across 31N60W to the northern coast of the Dominican Republic. Convergent southerly winds are producing scattered moderate convection north of 24N between 56W and the front itself. Similar convection is also occurring over northern Hispaniola. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident behind the nearly stationary front, except seas are 4 to 6 ft in the Great Bahama Bank. Farther southeast, gentle winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate mixed swells are noted north of 20N between 60W and the front. To the east, a broad Atlantic Ridge associated with a 1033 mb Azores High is supporting gentle to moderate E to SSE winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft in large NE to E swell dominate north of 20N between 35W and 60W. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to locally strong NE winds will expand in coverage from Sun through Mon night as the northern portion of the frontal boundary transitions back to a cold front reaching waters near 55W by late Mon. The winds will then diminish to mostly fresh starting Tue south of 28N as the high pressure weakens, with an associated ridge near 31N. Rough seas from large NE swell will linger through Tue between Bermuda and the Bahamas.

Posted 2 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan