Go to the WJXT homepage

Tropical Waves

A recently introduced far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W south of 14N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis, only an isolated shower near 09N26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W south of 18N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east of the wave from 05N to 10N between 40W and 46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west of the wave from 07N to 10N. This wave is expected to be attendant by tight gradient producing fresh to strong winds and building seas to 8 ft starting this afternoon as it quickly tracks westward toward 50W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from near 18N57.5W to inland South America at 08N59W. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 13N and between 51W and 57W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is near the wave axis.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 09N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N35W to 08N45W to 08N60W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is southeast of the trough from 06N to 10N between 18W-23W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 36W-40W.

Gulf Of America

Relatively weak high pressure extends westward across the basin from the Atlantic as a weak 1018 mb high is over eastern Mexico. The related pressure gradient is generally maintaining gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the Gulf south of about 26N, and light to gentle southeast to south winds north of about 26N. Latest satellite altimeter and buoy observations indicate slight seas throughout.

Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 22N between 91W and 97W.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure will change little through Thu night, then shift northward to near the northern Gulf coast Fri through Sat night. The related pressure gradient will continue to maintain gentle to moderate winds east to southeast winds across the Gulf south of about 26N, and light to gentle southeast to south winds north of about 26N, except for fresh to strong northeast to east winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night. Slight seas are forecast throughout the basin for the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean as seen in the latest satellite scatterometer data passes. Trades to near gale-force are offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough seas are being produced by these trades. The scatterometer satellite data passes also reveal moderate to fresh trades across the eastern portion of the basin. Seas are of moderate state with these trades. Trades of fresh speeds are in the Gulf Honduras, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds along with slight to moderate seas are present.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean through the period, while mostly fresh trades will be elsewhere south of 18N. Moderate to rough seas will accompany these winds. Expect winds to pulse to near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Sat, except on Thu. Moderate or weaker winds will continue over the northwestern part of the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong east to southeast winds are forecast at night through the forecast period. A tropical wave currently extending along 59W south of 18N will move across the eastern Caribbean Wed and Wed night, across the central Caribbean Thu through Fri night, and across the eastern part of the western Caribbean Sat and Sat night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this wave. Another tropical wave will move across the basin starting Wed night attendant by fresh to strong winds.

Atlantic Ocean

Broad high pressure over the basin is the main feature controlling the general wind flow pattern. One high center of 1023 mb is centered near 20N62W, and a 1026 mb high center is to the northeast at 29N38.5W. A weak trough extends from near 31N55W to 26N59W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are east of the trough from 25N to 29N between 52W and 55W. To the northeast of the trough, an area of numerous moderate convection is located from 28N to 31N between 42W and 48W. An upper shortwave trough is sustaining this activity. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are south of about 24N and west of 30W, and where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Strong east winds are between Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas. Moderate to locally strong north to northeast winds are from 18N to 28N and east of 30W to along the coast of Africa. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds per a recent altimeter satellite data pass. Moderate or weaker winds along with mostly moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure over the area will change little through the forecast period. The associated gradient will continue to support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through Sat night.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre