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Tropical Waves

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W, S of 14N, moving west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W, S of 15N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, S of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N16W and extends SW to 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 05N40W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 09W and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 31W and 57W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge associated with a 1021 mb high over northern Georgia extends southwestward across the north-central and eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure around TS Cristina and the eastern Pacific monsoon circulation is supporting moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds over the SE Gulf as well as the western half of the Gulf. Seas are 3-7 ft across these waters, with the highest seas of 5 to 7 ft being across the Yucatan adjacent waters and the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere in the NE Gulf, winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight. Otherwise, scattered to isolated showers are ongoing across the waters from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Panhandle and south of the Florida Big Bend.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the Gulf region the next few days, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds in the western Gulf through much of this week. Slight to moderate seas will also prevail. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will support fresh E winds pulsing to strong speeds during the evenings through Wed. A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu through Fri night, accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and T.S. Cristina in the Eastern Pacific offshore of Nicaragua supports moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas in the north-central and NW Caribbean W of 75W. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will strengthen slightly the next few days as high pressure moves into the W Atlantic, leading to widespread moderate to fresh trades with fresh to strong E winds in the south-central and NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. These conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front extends from 31N60W to 29N70W to 31N78W. Thunderstorms persist east of the southern Bahamas near the southern end of a surface pre-frontal trough extending from 30N55W to 22N65W. With these features, there is a weak pressure gradient over the SW N Atlantic waters, which is resulting in mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas, except for moderate winds and moderate seas to 5 ft in the vicinity of the front. The Azores High dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 17N. A strong pressure gradient between the High and lower pressure over NW Africa continue to support fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas N of 20N and E of 35W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere in the subtropical Atlantic. In the tropical Atlantic, the passage of two tropical waves is supporting moderate to fresh trades between 40W and the Lesser Antilles along with 7 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak low pressure may form along the surface trough Wed near 25N65W, which will then dissipate through Thu as it moves to the northeast along with the trough. Meanwhile, the cold front will stall along 30N east of 75W through late Wed, then will shift northward Thu ahead of the weak low pressure. The Atlantic ridge will build across the region late Thu through Fri along roughly 25N. Looking ahead, this pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds north of Hispaniola at night from Fri night through Sun night.

Posted 1 hour, 38 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos