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Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from 31N75W to near Melbourne, Florida. This front will drift SE today, then stall through much of the week along a Bermuda to Florida Straits line. Low pressure will track NE along the boundary from the Florida Peninsula tonight to N of the area near Bermuda Thu. Thunderstorms with gusty winds will accompany this low pressure. As strong high pressure builds toward the region from the SE U.S., the pressure gradient between it and the cold front will be quite tight, and NE gales will develop offshore NE Florida this morning. These gales will spread E to about 73W, mainly N of 28N, through Wed night, before gradually ending as the low pressure moves N of the area. Very rough seas of 16 to 19 ft will be generated by these gales,

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on the Gale Warning.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast at 08N12W, then reaches SW to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 00N26W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 04N along both of these features.

Gulf Of America

A nearly-stationary front extends from just south of Tampa Bay to a 1013 mb low pressure centered near 24N91W. A cold front then extends from the low to the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is along and south of the front in the SE Gulf. N of the boundary in the NE Gulf, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds have developed, and rough seas are building. W of the cold front as well as in the NW Gulf, fresh to locally strong N winds prevail, with subsiding rough seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the SW Gulf will decrease today, but strong NE winds and rough seas in the NE Gulf will increase as the low tracks east along the slow- moving front and across Florida into tonight. Thunderstorms with locally gusty can be expected across the eastern Gulf ahead of the low. The front will then stall into late week over the far SE basin and only gradually dissipate, leaving a tight pressure gradient between it and building high pressure from the SE U.S. This will maintain the strong winds and rough seas over the NE basin much of the week, with near gale conditions possible Wed and Thu offshore Florida. Conditions will begin to improve somewhat Fri as the high pressure builds southwestward across the northern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in South America is inducing fresh trades over the central and eastern basin, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. In the western Caribbean, the typical trade winds have been disrupted by a cold front to the north in the Gulf of America, causing winds to be light and seas to be slight. No significant convection is occurring in the basin early this morning.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trades will prevail over the central and eastern basin into Thu, with gentle to moderate winds to the west. Strong high pressure will then build southward from the western Atlantic, leading to increasing winds, especially in the south-central basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features above for information on a Gale Warning in the SW N Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N75W to near Melbourne, Florida. Strong to near gale force NE to E winds are N of this boundary, with building rough seas. Scattered moderate convection is south of this boundary, within 120 nm of the Florida coast. A surface tough extends north from Puerto Rico along 68W to 24N. It is inducing scattered moderate convection along and W of it to 70W, and is also producing strong southerly winds just E of its axis. In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening cold front extends from just NW of the Canary Islands, to 26N30W to 28N42N. Fresh to locally strong NE winds follow this front, with building rough to very rough seas. The rest of the basin, E of 65W, has mainly fresh trades and moderate seas, although NE swell has propagated ahead of the eastern Atlantic cold front, and rough seas now cover waters N of 20N and E of 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from 31N75W to near Melbourne, Florida. This front will drift SE today, then stall through much of the week along a Bermuda to Florida Straits line. Low pressure will track NE along the boundary from the Florida Peninsula tonight to N of the area near Bermuda Thu. Thunderstorms with gusty winds will accompany this low pressure. As strong high pressure builds toward the region from the SE U.S., the pressure gradient between it and the cold front will be quite tight, and NE gales will develop offshore NE Florida this morning. These gales will spread E to about 73W, mainly N of 28N, through Wed night, before gradually ending as the low pressure moves N of the area. Very rough seas of 16 to 19 ft will be generated by these gales, and rough seas in N swell will impact a much larger area through the end of the week. The front is likely to linger over the basin into the weekend, so marine conditions could be slow to improve.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik