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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 11N15W, then curves southwestward to 00N26W. The ITCZ extends from 00N26W to 02S40W to 00S50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04S to 10N between 06W and 26W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08S to 04N between 25W and 38W, and from 02S to 12N W of 45W.

Gulf Of America

Scattered to isolated showers continue to move eastward away from the Florida Straits this morning while dense fog was repored over the NW Gulf offshore waters. A 1019 mb high NE of the northern Bahamas extends a ridge across Florida and into the western Gulf. A weak pressure gradient over the region is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, satellite images indicate that smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico is affecting the SW Gulf waters. Mariners may experience diminished visibility in the area.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas basin-wide through Mon. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the evenings. Southeasterly winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of Gulf Mon night into mid-week.

Caribbean Sea

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the lee side of central and eastern Cuba as well as the Windward Passage due to the tail of a dissipating stationary front that extends across Hispaniola to the offshore waters of southern Cuba. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high is NE of the northern Bahamas and is supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas basin-wide.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will weaken over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal boundary, currently located north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming weekend. This weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the central and eastern Caribbean Mon night through mid-week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from near 31N39W to 26N47W where it becomes a dissipating stationary front to Hispaniola near 19N69W. The front is supporting scattered showers in the Great Bahama Bank while an area of showers continue to migrate from the Florida Straits to the northern Bahamas. Between the front and the areas of showers is a 1019 mb high NE of the northern Bahamas, which is supporting moderate or lighter E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the SW N Atlantic waters. Another 1019 mb high is E of the front over the E subtropical Atlantic waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of the front to 30W and N of 26N. Seas with these winds are 5 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh NNE winds are between the Canary and Cape Verde Islands, and the coast of NW Africa with moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will dissipate today and the remnant moisture will lift northward as a trough Sat through Sun. A weak low may develop along the trough axis E of the Bahamas on Sun. This will support gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas across most of the forecast area through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh to locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning today as another cold front clips the region by late Sat into Sun.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos