Go to the WJXT homepage

Special Features

South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure in Colombia and Panama will support fresh to near gale- force winds across most of the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the water between Cuba and Jamaica, into tonight. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight offshore Colombia. Seas with these winds are expected to be in the 8 to 12 ft (2.5 to 4 m) range.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Seas of 12 to 14 ft in west to northwest swell at 12 to 16 second periods are over the area north of 23N between 20W and 52W. Seas are forecast to slowly decay to less than 12 ft (4 m) from SW to NE through early this evening as the swell loses energy.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 03N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to 01N40W to the Equator near 51W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 05N between 44W and the coast of South America.

Gulf Of America

A weak pressure gradient in place will allow for generally light to gentle anticyclonic across the basin, with the exception of winds becoming northeast to east, moderate to fresh in speeds, beginning in the afternoons and into the overnight hours through the end of the week. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the basin, with the exception of seas to 5 ft in the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the current conditions through the end of the week for the majority of the Gulf. Southerly winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds this weekend ahead of a cold front that will moves cross the west and central waters Sun. Strong winds and rough seas are possible in the northern Gulf with this frontal system. Conditions are expected to remain favorable for the formation of patchy fog o areas of widespread dense fog along and near coastal locations and in bays.

Caribbean Sea

See Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia.

High pressure of 1024 mb is analyzed east-northeast of the Bahamas near 28N69W. A subtle ridge extends from the high south- southwestward to near 17N75W. The gradient between it and relatively lower pressure to the south is supporting fresh to near gale-force northeast winds over the central Caribbean, Windward Passage, and waters south of the Greater Antilles. Seas over the central Caribbean are in 8 to 11 ft range. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along with seas of 6 to 8 ft in north to northeast swell are over the eastern part of the basin while seas of 4 to 6 ft are west of about 80W, except for slightly lower seas of 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Large, long-period northwest to north swell is bring seas of 7 to 9 ft through the Mona and Anegada Passages.

Scattered to broken mostly low-clouds moving westward with the trades are noted mainly north of 12N, with more concentration of these clouds present over the eastern part of the basin from 14N to 18N, where the tail-end of a trough is located. Isolated mostly light showers, with gusty winds are possible within these areas of clouds.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support fresh to strong winds across most of the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the waters between Cuba and Jamaica, into tonight. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight offshore Colombia. Large northwest to north swell will continue to impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical north Atlantic waters today, creating hazardous marine conditions. Late this week into the weekend, the pressure gradient will relax, leading to moderate to fresh trades dominating the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for information on significant west to northwest swell that is impacting portions of the central subtropical Atlantic.

A 1024 mb high center is analyzed over the western Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas near 28N69W, with a subtle ridge that extends south-southwestward toward the north-central Caribbean Sea. A 1343Z Ascat pass from this morning indicates moderate to fresh east to southeast winds south of 22N between 70W and 79W, with the fresh winds mostly concentrated between Great Inagua and the entrance to the Windward Passage. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. A 1417Z Ascat pass from this morning shows fresh to strong southwest to west winds over the waters northwest and north of the 1024 mb high center. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. To the east, a stationary front extends from near 31N35W to 23N48.5W, where it begins to dissipate to 20N54W, then transitions to a trough to the Leeward and to the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are within 120 nm east of the front north of 25N. Seas there are as described under the Special Features section. Farther east, a 1027 mb high center is to the northwest of the Canary Islands near 31N20W. A ridge extends southwestward from the high to near 23N39W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes reveal moderate to fresh northeast to east winds roughly to the south of a line from the Canary Islands to 20N28W to 20N52W and to 20N70W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in long-period northwest swell within this area of moderate to fresh winds. The scatterometer satellite data passes also show light to gentle anticyclonic winds near the 1027 mb high center and associated ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the southwest winds on the west side of the high pressure that is in place over the western Atlantic will continue to increase over the northern waters will continue to increase today, reaching fresh to strong speeds this afternoon ahead of the next cold front. This front is forecast to move across the northern and central waters east of Florida from this evening into Thu, shifting east of 55W Fri night. Scattered showers may preceded the front. Looking ahead, more strong south to southwest winds along with quickly building seas are expected offshore the southeastern United States coast beginning Sun ahead of a strong cold front.

Posted 1 hour, 14 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre