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Special Feature

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize: Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat. Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period, primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local meteorological agencies for further guidance.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 22W S of 15N, moving westward near 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 51W S of 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are seen within 60 nm either side of the axis from 04N to 07N.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W S of 16N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 15N between 60W and 65W.

Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 68W, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring at the present time with this wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan peninsula. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted S of 24N between 82W and 91W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near 13N17W and extends southwestward to 06N28W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 14N between 11W and 26W, and from 04N to 08N between 30W and 42W.

Gulf Of America

Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward from the western Atlantic to just inland the northern Gulf coast. Low pressure prevails across Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds W of 90W, as well as S of 21N and E of 90W. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, prevail over the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure is expected to develop over the northeastern Gulf on Fri, then persist through Tue. Farther south, a broad trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula should gradually move into the the Bay of Campeche tonight and Fri. The low pressure will then move northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between these features will support a plume of fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas from the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least Sat night. The trough will be accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland and weakens.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and troughing over the Yucatan peninsula associated with a tropical wave is supporting fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over these waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along Colombia and Venezuela is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean. Seas of 5-8 ft prevail over this area. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a strong ridge across the western Atlantic will support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean into early next week, with the highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the northwestern Caribbean west of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night, between the ridge and low pressure over northern Central America and southern Mexico.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from 31N44W to a 1016 mb low centered near 30N62W. Isolated convection is in the vicinity of these features. Gentle to moderate winds are ahead of the front, mainly N of 28N between 40W and 45W. High pressure prevails elsewhere over the waters N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are found S of 20N as well as N of 20N and E of 30W. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range W of 60W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low will open up into a trough, while the front will weaken through Fri. On Sat, a ridge will extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate breezes across the western Atlantic, except moderate to fresh winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Al