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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N15W and continues south-southwestward to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues 01N23W to 00N35W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

The pressure gradient between 1022 mb high pressure centered near the Florida Big Bend and a surface trough over the Bay of Campeche is leading to moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most of the Gulf, except gentle within 120 nm of Florida. Locally strong winds have developed near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in the western basin and 2 to 4 ft in the east.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through Wed morning. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then at mostly fresh speeds through Fri night. A weak cold front will brush the northern portion of the NE Gulf Thu through early Fri. A strong cold front will emerge off the Texas coast late Fri night, then reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late on Sat, and from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with near gale winds possible over the west- central and SW Gulf sections on Sat. Seas are forecast to build to 12 ft with these winds Sat and Sat night, then slowly subsiding Sun.

Caribbean Sea

Convection associated with upper-level troughing has diminished in the eastern basin this afternoon. Moderate to fresh trades dominate across the eastern, central, and SW basin, with locally strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle winds prevail in the NW basin, except for pulsing fresh winds in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the NW.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean through Sunday, reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat night before diminishing Sunday.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N61W to the NW Bahamas, with a pre- frontal trough to its east from 31N58W to 25N65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the trough N of 25N and E to 54W. Fresh S winds are noted in this region, with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Beyond the front, fresh NW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate N of 28N, with gentle to moderate mainly N winds and moderate seas elsewhere W of the front as high pressure centered over Florida gradually settles toward the waters.

A weak cold front also is present in the eastern Atlantic from around 31N28W to 22N38W. Only gentle NW winds are W of this boundary, with light winds to the E. S of 20N, moderate to locally fresh trades dominate. Seas over the majority of open Atlantic waters are moderate, ranging from 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N61W to just east of the central Bahamas will move E of 55W on Wed. Another cold front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon before passing E of 55W on Sat. A third cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida on Saturday. This front will reach from 31N73W to central Florida on Sun.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik