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Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 4 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Bucci
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough is analyzed from 14N17W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S40W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ and W of 20W.
Gulf Of America
A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 28N86W. Gentle to moderate southeast winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted over the western Gulf per latest scatterometer satellite data, buoy observations and recent altimeter satellite data. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 ft or less are over the rest of the basin.
For the forecast, a cold front will move off the Texas coast overnight. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow the cold front as it moves across the northern Gulf through the early part of the week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon then dissipate into mid week. Fresh SE winds will return to the northwest Gulf by late Thu.
Caribbean Sea
A broad mid to upper-level trough stretches from the central Atlantic southwestward to the central Caribbean. To its east, a moist and unstable air mass is helping to promote scattered showers over the eastern portion of the basin. The latest scatterometer satellite data generally reveals gentle to moderate trades east of about 72W. Seas are mostly 3 to 4 ft over this part of the basin. Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the basin. Seas with these winds remain at 1 to 3 ft.
For the forecast, a weaker than usual pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds through the forecast period. Fresh NE winds may develop early next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late- season cold front moving into Cuba.
Atlantic Ocean
A surface trough is analyzed from 29N71W to 23N73W. To the east, a broad 1026 mb high center is north of the area at 33N49W. This feature controls the wind flow pattern across most of the western and central Atlantic. Its associated gradient is maintaining light to gentle winds north of 25N and between 35W and 45W. Seas with these winds are about 4 to 6 ft. A 1010 mb surface low is analyzed near 26N19W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are over the rest of the basin east of 35W along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the ridging over the western Atlantic will shift east tonight, ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sun. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it reaches a position from Bermuda to Florida Straits by late Mon, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue. Winds will diminish through mid week as the front stalls and dissipates along 22N. High pressure will build between northeast Florida and Bermuda in the wake of the front. Large N swell may linger near the dissipating front Wed into Thu.
Posted 1 hour, 23 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era
