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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning, A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas coast tonight. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Sat, then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz early on Sat, and on Sat night near Veracruz. Seas are forecast to build to around 14 ft in the area of strongest winds through the weekend. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough is confined to inland Africa. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 02N33W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 01S to 05N between 35W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

See details above for gale-force winds to occur behind a cold front in the W Gulf on Sat and Sat night.

A stationary front is drapped across the northern Gulf coast and connects to a 1006 mb low near Houston, Texas. The low and associated frontal boundary are generating scattered heavy showers and tstms as shown by GLM data. A generally weak pressure gradient is across the basin, thus allowing light to gentle winds N of 25N and over the SE Gulf, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the SW basin and northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters W of 86W. Otherwise, areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the west and northwest Yucatan coasts in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the western Gulf with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf through Fri, locally strong near Yucatan in the evenings. A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas coast tonight. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat, then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz early on Sat, and Sat afternoon and evening near Veracruz. Seas are forecast to build to around 14 ft in the area of strongest winds through the weekend. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Marine conditions should significantly improve early next week.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between 1014 mb high pressure over the western Atlantic east of the Bahamas and relatively lower pressure over N South America is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off NE Colombia and NW Venezuela. Seas are about 5-7 ft in these areas. Gentle to moderate easterly trade winds prevail elsewhere across the basin with seas of 2-5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the SW Caribbean, supported by a mid to upper-level trough persisting across the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon, reaching strong speeds at times in the south-central Caribbean and near the Gulf of Honduras with locally rough seas. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night, stalling just north of there into Mon. This will temporarily and slight weaken the pressure gradient and winds.

Atlantic Ocean

The subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a 1014 mb high E of the Bahamas, and a 1020 mb high located SW of the Canary Islands near 26N27W. A weak cold front intersects the ridge over the central Atlantic waters where it extends from 31N36W to 23N48W. Aside from scattered to isolated showers associated with the front, moderate to fresh SW to W winds are in the vicinity of the front along with rough seas to 10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, locally rough seas north of 25N and east of 60W will subside tonight. A remnant frontal trough from near 21.5N55W to the central Dominican Republic supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually wash out through today. A stationary front from near 31N77W to 1008 mb low pressure near Savannah, Georgia also supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will progress into the offshore waters and weaken as it moves across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas through tonight to E of 55W Sat. Another front will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sat afternoon, reach from near 31N68W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida on Sun, then stall through Mon. Low pressure is expected to move along the front at that time. Fresh to strong southwest winds will precede the front Sat and Sat night. Fresh northeast to east winds will follow the front through Mon, along with locally rough seas near 31N. The remnants of the front should wash out Tue and Tue night with improving marine conditions.

Posted 1 hour, 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos