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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 11N15W southwestward to 03N20W, and continues to the Equator at 30W and to 01N46W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03S to 04N between 09N and 17W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 02N between 38W-46W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 23W-26W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 31W-36W.

Gulf Of America

A weak 1013 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the NE Gulf near 26N85W while the Yucatan Peninsula trough has shifted to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Fresh east to southeast winds are over the waters just north of the Yucatan Peninsula while moderate southeast winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are over the western Gulf, and gentle breezes and 1 to 3 seas over the eastern Gulf near the high pressure center. Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the coast in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will generally maintain gentle to moderate southeast to south winds across the basin, except for light to gentle variable winds over the NE Gulf through Fri. Moderate seas will be over the western Gulf while mostly slight seas will be elsewhere through Fri. A diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings and at night through Fri. A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas coast Fri night. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Sat, then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Sat, lasting to into Sat night offshore Veracruz. Seas are forecast to build to around 12 ft, but possibly higher over waters affected by the gale conditions before subsiding Sun and Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected to precede the front. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts.

Caribbean Sea

The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, where seas are about 6 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds remain elsewhere across the basin along seas of 3 to 5 ft per latest scatterometer and altimeter satellite data.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon, reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat night and diminishing on Sun and Mon. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night.

Atlantic Ocean

A 1015 mb high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic off the northern Bahamas near 26N72W. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds along with seas of 3 to 5 ft seas are off northeast Florida, with gentle breezes and 5-7 ft in N swell elsewhere west of 65W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N45W to 27N50W to 26N55W and to near 23N61W. Mostly fresh to west to northwest winds are behind the front north of 27N and as far east as 65W. Seas are about 7 to 10 ft in northwest swell with these winds. Fresh to strong winds and 5 to 7 ft are active within 300 nm east of the front north of 24N. 1016 mb high pressure is centered near 25N35W, following another cold front reaching from an occluded low pressure near the Azores, to 30N20W and to 20N29W. Gentle breezes and seas of 5 to 7 ft in north swell are present elsewhere north of 20N, and while moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are ongoing across the tropical Atlantic south of about 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front that extends from 31N45W to 27N50W to 26N55W and to near 23N61W will shift E of 55W north of 24N this morning. Another cold front will move offshore northeast Florida today, then weaken as it moves across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas through Fri night to E of 55W Sat. A third cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sat afternoon, reach from near 31N68W to east-central Florida on Sun, then stall through Mon. Low pressure is expected to move along the front at that time. Fresh to strong southwest winds will precede the front Sat and Sat night. Fresh northeast to east winds will follow the front through Mon.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre