TRACKING THE TROPICS
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 3 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Bucci
Special Features
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through early next week. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours through Sat night. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W, then extends southwestward to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 04N between 17W and 37W.
Gulf Of America
A surface trough is analyzed over western Gulf from 24N92W to 20N95W. Outside of a few shallow showers along the northern portion of the trough axis, there is no notable convection associated with this feature. Across the basin, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a broad ridge southwestward into the Gulf through early next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pusling to fresh to strong near the northern Yucatan in the evenings. Seas will be slight to moderate through the forecast period.
Caribbean Sea
Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trades and rough seas to 12ft are noted in the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean with moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas over the northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong NE winds are filtering through the Windward Passage from the Atlantic.
For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure will prevail north of the area into the weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through early next week. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba through Sat evening. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night through Sun night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Rough seas in fresh easterly trade wind swell over the tropical N Atlantic will continue through Tue.
Atlantic Ocean
A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1035 mb high pressure located northeast of the Azores, and a 1029 mb high pressure situated in the vicinity of Bermuda. Under the influence of this ridge, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough seas are observed in both scatterometer and altimeter passes this morning across much of the waters south of 25N. Moderate or weaker NE to E winds and moderate seas dominate the area north of 25N. With the exception of fresh to strong NE winds noted from northern Morocco to just north of the Canary Islands.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 25N through Tue night, reaching strong north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southern Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region.
Posted 1 hour, 5 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Nepaul

