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Tropical Waves

A tropical is along 23W and extends from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04.5N to 09.5N between 19W and 28W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 40W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04.5N to 10N and between 30W and 42W.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean along 70W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over Venezuelan coastal waters S of 13N between 63W and 70W, while scattered moderate to strong convection is along coastal zones of eastern Venezuela to far eastern Colombia.

A tropical wave in the SW Caribbean has its axis near 83W, moving westward at 15 kt. No convection is noted over nearby waters at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20.5N16W and continues southwestward to 08.5N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N25W to 06.5N37W, where it is broken by a tropical wave, then resumes from 07N40W to the coast of Brazil near 06N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and within 200 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 59W.

Gulf Of America

1020 mb high pressure is centered over south central Mississippi and extends a broad ridge south and southeastward across the Gulf basin and into the NW Caribbean. The pressure gradient across the area favors moderate or weaker E-SE to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas basin-wide are slight, at 4 ft or less. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are weakening across the SW Gulf along a westward moving surface trough, and are shifting offshore of the Florida Panhandle and central Florida into the local coastal waters.

For the forecast, the ridge across the basin will dominate the Gulf region through the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sat night due to local effects associated with a surface trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. A surface trough across N Florida will drift SW across the NE Gulf this evening and tonight, with showers and thunderstorms expected to shift SW along it through around midnight, before dissipating.

Caribbean Sea

The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends from the NE Atlantic southwestward to near 70W and east of the Bahamas, while high pressure across the Gulf of America extends southeastward to the NW Caribbean. The associated pressure gradient continues to force fresh to strong easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft, with the strongest winds and highest seas found offshore of NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection across the Gulf of Honduras is shifting westward and inland.

For the forecast, the Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through Sat night, except offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela where winds are likely to reach near gale-force at night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean. Moderate winds across the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh each late afternoon through evening.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front has stalled from near Bermuda southwestward across the NE Florida offshore waters then westward across N Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have develop late this afternoon along and south of the front to 29N, between 50W and 73W, and over much of north and central Florida. A surface trough is bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the waters from the Turks and Caicos northeastward into the open Atlantic near 26N66W. The Azores High extends a broad ridge elsewhere southwestward across the subtropical waters, to this surface trough near 70W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas of 4 to 7 ft across much of the waters W of 25W. East of 25W, a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa supports fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas 8 to 10 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough is moving across the NW waters, and extends from 30N70W to central Florida near Cape Canaveral. The trough will first drift southward trough Wed morning, then begin moving westward late Wed into Thu. Under this weather pattern, moderate or weaker winds are expected, except for moderate to fresh winds offshore Hispaniola mainly late in the afternoons into the early evening hours.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling