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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from 10N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N to 08N between 13W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

High pressure anchored over the SE United States continues to impart surface ridging across the Gulf, providing for moderate or weaker E to SE winds and 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern U.S. Will build southward toward the region. The related gradient will continue to maintain mostly moderate to fresh east winds across the basin through tonight. The high pressure will strengthen some through late Sun night as it shifts eastward over the western Atlantic through early next week before it weakens into midweek. A ridge will stretch west- southwestward from the high to across the northern Gulf through the period. A tightening pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure to its southeast associated with a frontal boundary will funnel pulsing fresh to strong east winds through the Straits of Florida and into the southeastern Gulf starting on Mon. Seas across the basin will be at a mostly moderate state, except reaching a rough state, at times, in the Straits of Florida beginning on Mon.

Caribbean Sea

The present synoptic weather pattern, with a cold front north of Hispaniola over the W Atlantic, and high pressures centered over the SE United States and in the north-central Atlantic, limits fresh to locally strong trades to the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, with 7-9 ft seas. Within the Windward Passage, fresh NE winds are analyzed as some of the post-frontal airmass drains through the passage. Moderate NE winds prevail elsewhere in the NW Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas. In the remaining sections of the Eastern and Central Caribbean, trades are moderate or weaker with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure building southward from the western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient and increase winds over the basin, leading to strong winds over the south- central Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola starting tonight. Winds and seas will diminish late next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N61W to the coast of Hispaniola near 20N70W. Moderate to locally fresh N winds, and 7-9 ft seas, prevail west of the frontal boundary across the W Atlantic. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the front. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by 1035 mb high pressure centered near the Azores. Moderate to fresh trades prevail north of 15N, with moderate or weaker trades south of 15N. 8-10 ft seas, in decaying long period NE swell, are analyzed from 05N to 25N between 20W and 60W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft in open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure is building behind the aforementioned cold front over the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient between these two features will maintain moderate to fresh northeast winds west of the front through Sun. Winds become locally strong starting Sun night as the high pressure strengthens some. The winds then diminish back to mostly fresh speeds starting Tue south of 28N as the high pressure weakens, with an associated ridge near 31N. Rough seas from large NE swell will linger into the start of next week between Bermuda and the Bahamas.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mahoney