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Special Features

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell: A cold front extends from 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and into western Cuba. Gale-force W winds of up to 45 kt follow this cold front N of 27N to 71W. Seas within the area of gales have built to 20 to 30 ft. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft extend well S of the gale area due to expansive, significant NW swell, within an area of strong mainly W winds, N of 23N between 40W and 77W. Widespread gale-force to near storm- force winds will impact waters W of the front, north of 27N and east of 70W into Mon, when the front will reach a 31N48W to Leeward Islands line. Gale-force winds behind the front will diminish to fresh to strong speeds by early Tue morning. Very rough seas generated by these winds will propagate SE and impact much of the waters into mid-week, with peak seas of 33 ft possible from 30N to Bermuda this afternoon. The very rough seas are likely to finally diminish below 12 ft Wed.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of W Africa near 07N12W and extends southwestward to near 04N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues to 00N30W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 03N between 25W and 30W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends from the Yucatan Channel to the upper Texas coast. High pressure dominates on both sides of the boundary, with a 1024 mb high centered near 23N94W. NE of the front, Moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail, with light to gentle winds and slight seas to the SW.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin, bringing quiescent weather into late week.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front is noted from from western Cuba across the Yucatan Channel. A stationary front extends from Puerto Rico to the central basin near 15N72W. Mainly NE winds are present through the basin, with moderate seas.

For the forecast, the cold front will overtake the stationary front later today, then slide east of the Leeward Islands Mon. Winds will increase in the wake of the front, becoming strong initially offshore Colombia and Hispaniola tonight, then expanding to much of the central basin Mon through Wed, as high pressure in the western Atlantic builds southward toward the area. Rough seas will accompany these strong winds. In addition, large NW to N swell will impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters tonight into Wed.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning and significant swell in the western and central Atlantic.

Aside from the gale and significant swell, a reinforcing cold front extends from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas. Ahead of the main cold front, responsible for the gales, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N48W to Puerto Rico. In the far east Atlantic, a 1026 mb high pressure is centered just W of the Canary Islands, and dominates the basin outside of the aforementioned frontal boundaries. This is leading to fresh NE to E trades and moderate to rough seas S of 20N and E of 50W, with moderate or lesser winds and seas elsewhere SE of a 31N30W to Puerto Rico line.

For the forecast W of 55W, gales will spread east as cold front moves E across the waters, impacting areas N of 27N through Mon. This front will merge with a stationary front that is over the SE waters tonight, then move E of the area by Mon night, allowing winds to gradually diminish. Very rough seas will impact most of the waters E of 77W through Tue, with peak seas along 30N, SE of Bermuda, exceeding 30 ft through tonight.

Posted 38 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik