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Special Features

Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low pressure located inland near the Texas/Mexico border continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America today, and environmental conditions there are expected to be marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm later today or on Wednesday. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required later today. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.

This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers ABNT20 KNHC/TWOAT or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for further details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 11N AND between 17W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 09N and between 33W and 54W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 13N and between 55W and 64W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found south of 13N and between 69W and 75W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 07N26W. The ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 04N43W and then from 04N45W to 04N51W. Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the convection.

Gulf Of America

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the NW Gulf of America.

A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms affecting NE Mexico, southern Texas and nearshore waters. The remainder of the basin is under the western extent of the subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas, west of 90W and off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a trough with weak low pressure along it is inland across northeastern Mexico, and will move slowly N to NE during the next couple of days. Low pressure is expected to move northeastward along the Texas coast, and possibly re- emerge over the NW Gulf late Tue or Wed, at which time environmental conditions may be marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm Wed into Thu. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW Gulf Tue through Thu. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the area will sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf early Wed through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

A few showers are seen south of eastern Cuba and off western Jamaica. The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are noted off Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a broad ridge extends from the central Atlantic westward along 27N and across S Florida. The pressure gradient across the region will sustain a large area of fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central basin through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat, pulsing to near gale Wed night, Thu night and Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will become SE at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu night.

Atlantic Ocean

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 24N and between 67W and 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 28N and west of 65W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 35W. In the far east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are present north of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure near 26N57W westward along 27N and across S Florida, and will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing some in coverage beginning Fri night. Moderate to fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 74W are occurring ahead of a surface trough. These winds will expand eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front is expected to move offshore late Fri night and stall offshore northeast Florida Sat and Sat night. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado