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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to near 00N26W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted withing 240 nm on either side of the boundaries.

Gulf Of America

A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin. With this, moderate to fresh E winds prevail west of 88W along with 3-5 ft seas, with gentle to moderate mainly E to SE winds and 1-2 ft seas east of 88W. A portion of a stationary front pokes in across the NE Gulf coastal waters with little impacts.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through early Wed. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu and reach from South Florida to central Texas by late Fri.

Caribbean Sea

Broad upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers across most of the central and eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure across the basin is keeping moderate to locally fresh trades south of 15N and east of 76W, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are mainly light to gentle across the remainder of the basin. Slight seas prevail between 68W and 85W, and moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area, tightening the pressure gradient. The tighter pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through Thu, reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through Fri, increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat.

Atlantic Ocean

A 1017 mb low pres is analyzed near 30N34W, with cold front from the low to 24N45W. A surface trough continues from that point to 25N67W. Scattered showers are noted along these features. Seas to 8 ft in long-period northwest swell follow the front/trough. To the west, a cold front moved off the southeastern United States and is analyzed in our area from 31N72W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front. Fresh to strong northeast winds are behind the front along with seas of 7-10 ft.

Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern part of the basin. The related gradient is keeping moderate to fresh trades over most of the basin south of about 20N, with similar winds north of 27N between 55W and 65W ahead of the western front. Seas with these winds are mainly 5-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary extending from 31N72W to central Florida will reach from near 31N59W to 25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the wake of the front tonight. Another cold front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida late Thu or Thu night, and weaken as it reaches from near Bermuda to 28N72W and stationary to South Florida late Fri.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky