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Special Feature

Tropical Storm Bertha is centered near 29.8N 88.6W at 22/1500 UTC or 30 nm S of Pascagoula Mississippi, moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 18 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of the center of Bertha from 25N-29N between 89W-94W. A westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to resume later today and continue through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts through Thursday, and then move farther inland into Texas on Friday. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Bertha could maintain tropical storm intensity through late Thursday. Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Bertha NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 07N-22N, moving westward around 20 kt. No significant deep convection is noted with the wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W from 05N-18N moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant deep convection is noted with the wave at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Senegal at 13N17W and extends southwestward to 10N22W where it breaks for a tropical wave and trough. The ITCZ starts at 08N39W and extends to 08N48W, where it breaks for another tropical wave. The ITCZ resumes at 08N51W to 07N58W along coastal Guyana. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N-14N east of 21W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 06N-11N west of 48W.

Gulf Of America

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bertha located about 50 NM north-northeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Aside from conditions related to Bertha, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bertha is about 50 nm south of Pascagoula, Mississippi near 29.8N 88.6W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west- northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Bertha will move inland over southeast Louisiana and reach 29.6N 90.3W this evening, then continue to 29.5N 92.7W off southwest Louisiana by Thu morning. Bertha will continue to move west and make landfall again over the upper Texas coast late Thu, weaken to a remnant low over southeastern Texas Fri morning, then dissipate by Fri evening. Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. In the wake of Bertha, weak high pressure centered over the south-central Gulf will be replaced by ridging associated to a new high center that forms over the NE Gulf providing for a light to gentle wind flow across the basin, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula and near NE Mexico and the Texas coast. These conditions are expected to persist through the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

The usual north-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean is reduced today due to a surface trough just north of Hispaniola. As a result, there is only a small area of fresh to locally strong trades just north of Colombia and Venezuela. Seas are 5-9 ft in that area as well as down fetch over the SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, trades are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5 ft.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the Windward Passage will pulse tonight. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras from this afternoon into tonight. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sun

Atlantic Ocean

Surface ridging is located north of the discussion area associated with an usually far north located Bermuda-Azores High. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting only moderate to locally fresh trades and seas 4-7 ft across all waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. The exception are fresh to locally strong NE winds off of Western Sahara with seas 6-9 ft. There are three convectively active surface troughs. The first is north of Hispaniola with scattered moderate convection occurring from 20N-30N between 63W-72W. The second is a trough southwest of the Azores associated with scattered moderate convection north of 28N between 33W-38W. The third is a trough that may have been spawned by the tropical wave at 37W and is causing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 09N-16N between 26W-34W. Additionally, an upper-level low is promoting scattered moderate convection from 21N-29N between 52W-60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough north of Hispaniola will move westward reaching the Bahamas Thu afternoon and to central and South Florida Fri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the waters east of northern Florida Sat night through Sun night preceded by mostly moderate to fresh southwest to winds between northeast Florida and Bermuda.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Landsea