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Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will support fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale- force at night off Colombia, except on Thu and Sun. Gale-force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Seas are expected to peak around 14 ft Sat.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from 03N to 15N, and is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection noted from 06N to 09N between 27W and 35W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55.5W south of 17N, and is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is depicted at the moment in association with this wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W south of 18N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted at the moment in association with this wave.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has now moved into the Eastern Pacific. For more information about this tropical wave, please read the Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean (TWDEP).

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic ocean near 21N17W and continues southwestward to 07N35W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02N to 08N between 36W and 42W. Similar convection is well south of the trough from 06N to 11N between the coast of Africa and 21W.

Gulf Of America

Relatively weak high pressure is extending westward across the basin from the Atlantic. The associated pressure gradient is generally allowing for light to gentle variable winds north of 24N and for gentle to moderate easterly winds south of 24N, except for mostly moderate winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are of slight state, except for moderate state seas in the Bay of Campeche. Meanwhile, an upper-level low and mid-level trough over the western Bay of Campeche is acting on a very unstable and moisture- laden atmosphere. This has lead to the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of the west- central and southwestern portions of the basin, south of about 26N and west of 93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also present north of 26N between 86W and 91W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned relatively weak high pressure will change little through Thu night, then shift northward to near the northern Gulf coast Fri through Sat night. The weather pattern will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the Gulf south of about 26N, and light to gentle southeast to south winds north of about 26N. The exception will be fresh to strong northeast to east winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night due to the diurnal trough that moves westward from the Yucatan peninsula. A mid to upper- level low acting on a very unstable and moisture- laden atmosphere will generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the SW Gulf, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere across the basin south of about 28N through Thu.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions offshore Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela.

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America is bringing fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean. Seas with these winds are 8 to 11 ft. Moderate to locally fresh east winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are in the Gulf of Honduras while fresh to strong northeast winds are funneling into the Windward Passage. Seas there are also 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, mostly fresh trades are over the basin, except for gentle to moderate winds over the NW Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft south of 18N and east of 83W and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Upper divergence is helping to sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will support fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force at night off Colombia, except on Thu and Sun. Gale-force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through the weekend. A fast- moving tropical wave should reach the Lesser Antilles this evening, bringing fresh to strong trades over the eastern Caribbean Thu through Fri night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may accompany this wave.

Atlantic Ocean

An expansive subtropical ridge axis is roughly along 27N, anchored by a 1025 mb high center at 26N44W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is producing fresh to strong trades south of about 24N and between 63W and 78W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are with these trades. Farther east, moderate to fresh trades along with seas 5 to 8 ft prevail south of a line from 28N23W to 21N48W to 23N78W. North of that line, light to gentle winds prevail along with seas 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of about 4 to 6 ft remain. An upper level trough north of the Hispaniola and Puerto Rico is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms south of 23N between 64W and 72W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging near 27N will change little through Thu, then shift slightly north afterward. The weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will prevail. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the weekend.

Posted 14 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv