Go to the WJXT homepage

Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33.5W, S of 11N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N15.5W and continues southwestward to near 01.5S31W, with the tropical wave described above to the west. The ITCZ is analyzed from west of the tropical wave near 02N37W to near the coast of Brazil at 00N47W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted S of 04N along both, the ITCZ and the monsoon trough, and near the tropical wave.

Gulf Of America

A weak cold front is moving into the Texas coastal waters, with high pressure ridging in control across the waters ahead of it. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the E Gulf and lower pressures over Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds over the eastern Gulf E of 86W, and across the western Gulf nearshore waters where the pressure gradient has weakened slightly due to front moving toward the SW Louisiana and Texas coasts. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, mainly in the central Gulf, with locally strong SE winds near the Yucatan Peninsula due to the diurnal trough. Seas are 4-6 ft N of 21N and W of 89W, except lower in the coastal waters, and 1-3 ft across the remainder of the basin, including the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak front is forecast to move slowly today, and quickly stall just beyond the Texas coastal waters by this evening, then lift back to the north as a warm front Fri into Sat as high pressure ridging builds back in across the basin from the east. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sat. Looking ahead, another cold front may try to move into the northern Gulf waters late on Sun, and reach from north- central Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late on Mon, followed by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible to precede the fronts.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean, where seas are in the 6-9 ft range. Similar winds are in the Gulf of Honduras with 5-7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere from 10.5N to 19N, as well as S of the Yucatan Channel, with mainly gentle winds across the remainder of the basin, including near the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba, and SW Caribbean S of 10.5N, along with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through the forecast period, with similar conditions expected in the Gulf of Honduras, though diminishing there Mon night as a cold front may approach the NW Caribbean from the Gulf of America. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A weakening frontal system with attendant low pressure is in the process of moving through into the Mid-Atlantic and SE United States. Numerous convection is out ahead of the front from northern Florida and Georgia northward to the Delmarva and beyond. Some of this convection is impacting the waters off SE Georgia and northern Florida, while winds there out of the S have increased to moderate to fresh. To the E, a weakening front extends from low pressure N of the discussion waters through 31N56W to 27.5N70W, with scattered moderate convection present N of 25N within of about 240 nm E-SE of the front. Seas are 4-6 ft N of 28N between 54W and 64W. Continuing eastward, high pressure N of the area combined with broad troughing supports moderate to locally fresh mainly NE-E winds and 6-8 ft seas across the area N of 20N between 20W and 47W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters, along with 4-6 ft seas, except 3-4 ft W of 64W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weakening front in the central Atlantic is forecast to slowly shift east while washing out today. Another front will move off northern Florida tonight, gradually losing definition as it shifts across the northern waters through Sat. Southerly winds are expected to freshen off northern Florida Sun night ahead of a stronger front that is expected to move across the northwest forecast waters through Mon night, followed by moderate to fresh northwest winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible ahead of both fronts. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge extending from near 30N55W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida will be in place during the forecast period, allowing for generally quiet conditions across the area. Meanwhile, winds may pulse to moderate to fresh off northern Hispaniola, increasing to fresh to strong this weekend and into early next week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky