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Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 25W from 12N southward, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the Monsoon Trough and nearby ITCZ, is from 01S to 09N between 21W and 34W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 52W, south of 12N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered to isolated showers are noted ahead of the wave axis to 58W and south of 10N.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is near 81W, south of 15N and into the Eastern Pacific region to near 05N. This wave is nearly stationary, with surface and upper air data from San Andres Island indicating the wave remains east of the island. Isolated showers over the Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshore waters.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N26W to 02N40W to 00N50W. Outside of the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 02S to 04N between 32W and 50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is offshore Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Gulf Of America

Middle to upper level diffluence continue to support heavy showers and tstms over the NW, north-central and E Mexico offshore waters. GLM satellite data indicate strong lightning pulses likely generating gusty winds, rough seas and limited visibility in those areas. Otherwise, the Atlantic subtropical ridge that extends into the NE Gulf is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds ahead of the areas of convection along with slight to moderate seas to 5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the NE Gulf will change little through late Mon, then weaken for the remainder of the week. The related pressure gradient will maintain a gentle to moderate E to SE wind flow through this morning, except for light to gentle SE winds W of about 94W through Tue as a trough develops off the Texas coast. Winds then generally become SE at gentle to moderate speeds across the basin through midweek, with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours. Numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW and north-central Gulf producing frequent lightning with gusty winds will continue to reduce visibility through later this morning. Otherwise, increasing moisture over the SE Gulf beginning by mid-week should lead to increasing chances for unsettled weather in that part of the Gulf. Mariners are urged to keep up with the latest forecast.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge that extends into the northern Caribbean, and the Colombian Low continue to support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, trades are moderate to fresh and seas 4-7 ft, except 7-9 ft offshore Colombia. Otherwise, scattered showers are ongoing over the waters adjacent to southern Cuba, the Windward Passage and offshore southern Dominican Republic.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean well into the upcoming week bringing rough seas across those waters. Fresh to strong trades will pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras through the period. Fresh trades elsewhere across the basin will begin to increase in coverage starting Mon as N Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic waters, providing moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas across the waters S of 27N and W of 50W. Winds are locally strong along the northern shore of Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to dominate most of the forecast region into Mon. Fresh to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola during the afternoons and evenings through Mon night. The western part of a backdoor cold front will push south across the eastern portion of the area from tonight into early Mon before stalling near 27N, and dissipating on Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with moderate to rough seas will follow the front, subsiding late Tue. Elsewhere, trades are forecast to increase over most of the western half of the area starting Mon, including the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as well as the entrance to the Windward Passage as initially stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift east- southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. The high pressure will then begin to weaken Wed allowing for the tight gradient to slacken leading to diminishing trades. Expect for increasing moisture along with unsettled weather conditions for the far western portion of the area beginning around the middle portion of the week.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos