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Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W and continues to 01N42W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between 15W and 35W.

Gulf Of America

With high pressure centered NE of the basin, moderate to fresh SE winds dominate, along with seas of 3 to 6 ft. No significant convection is ongoing.

For the forecast, high pressure over the region will begin to retreat eastward Sat evening in response to a cold front that will be approaching the Texas coast. The cold front will reach from the southeastern United States to the central Gulf and to the west- central Gulf Sun, then stall from S Florida to the central Gulf and to the west-central Gulf from early next week into the mid- week. Low pressure may develop along the western part of the front during the weekend. Strong northeast winds are expected across portions of the northern and western Gulf behind the front along with rough seas. Moderate to fresh southeast winds will precede the front, except in the Straits of Florida, where locally strong east winds will prevail.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E to NE winds offshore Colombia, south of Hispaniola and also in the Windward Passage. Seas over these areas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Upper- level divergence is yielding scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the NW basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered near Bermuda and low pressure near Colombia will continue to support pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia, Cuba, Hispaniola, and through the Windward Passage into Sat. The high pressure will weaken some as it slides eastward this weekend allowing for the the gradient to slacken. This will lead to diminishing winds and subsiding seas. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue, maintaining fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure N of the area extends a ridge across the entire subtropical waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the offshores N of the Greater Antilles, including the southern and central Bahamas and the Windward Passage. Seas in this area are up to 11 ft. Over the far E Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 26N22W to 22N29W, which is tightening the gradient of pressure and supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 35W, including the Canary Islands. It is also now generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 20N and E of 32W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high pressure located well north of the area and relatively lower pressure to the south is allowing for generally strong northeast to east winds along with rough seas over much of the waters S of 26N. These conditions will gradually diminish through the weekend as the high weakens while shifting eastward. An inverted surface trough is forecast to develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic by Sun night allowing for winds to weaken further. A cold front is expected to emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Mon, then slowly move southeastward reaching from near 31N70W to South Florida by Tue morning. Strong to near gale-force winds northeast winds and seas building to a rough state are expected behind this front.

Posted 1 hour, 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams