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Special Feature

West Atlantic Significant Swell: A long fetch of NE fresh to near gale NE winds are generating very rough seas in the Atlantic offshore of Florida and and north of the Bahamas. A SOFAR buoy reported seas of up to 14 ft near 29N73W as of 17 UTC. Gradually diminishing winds will continue to cause seas in excess of 12 ft tonight north and west of a frontal boundary that will reside from roughly 31N65W to 25N75W. Seas should fall below 12 ft by late tonight, with rough seas continuing into the weekend as fresh to strong NE winds continue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both areas of significant swell.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 03N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 00N23W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located south of 08N east of 18W. Scattered convection is also occurring south of 30N between 18W-35W.

Gulf Of America

Strong high pressure over the SE United States is forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds across the NE Gulf today with seas 6-10 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 3-6 ft. No deep convection is occurring over the Gulf currently.

For the forecast, high pressure building over the eastern U.S. Will support strong NE winds and rough seas across the northeast Gulf through tonight. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas elsewhere across basin through early next week, except for occasional strong E winds off western Cuba and off the northwest Yucatan. Locally rough seas will be in the Straits of Florida through the next several days.

Caribbean Sea

Only a weak north-south pressure gradient is present across the Caribbean today, as a stationary front is located just north of the Caribbean. As a result, fresh to locally strong E trades are restricted to only over the S central Caribbean today with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere across the Caribbean winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5 ft. No significant deep convection is noted across the basin today.

For the forecast, strong high pressure building southward from the western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient and increase winds over the basin, leading to strong winds over the south- central Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will commence S of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola starting Sat night.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on a Significant Swell offshore Florida in the western Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from just east of Bermuda near 31N64W to the central Bahamas near 24N79W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 NM of the front. Winds west of the front continue at NE fresh to strong over our waters with seas 10-14 ft. Up to around 200 NM east of the stationary front, winds are gentle to moderate, but with a N swell of 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, a strong 1038 mb Azores High is centered north of our waters at 37N36W with surface ridging extending to 25N65W on the west and to 23N17W on the east. The large pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing NE trades from fresh to strong north of 12N and east of 50W. Seas are 10-14 ft over the E Atlantic from 15N-31N east of 40W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate with seas 5-10 ft in mainly N swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stalling front extends from near Bermuda to the Central Bahamas. The boundary then becomes a trough that extends to central Cuba. Strong NE to E winds and very rough seas will prevail behind the front into tonight. Conditions will gradually improve Fri as the front drifts eastward and weakens, but large NE swell will maintain rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas into the start of next week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move south of Bermuda, mainly east of 70W, Sun night, and stall along roughly 27N through Mon. $$ Landsea

Posted 3 hours ago