TRACKING THE TROPICS
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 3 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Bucci
Special Features
East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Large, long-period north swell generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in the northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N through the weekend. Expect seas of 12 and 21 ft through Sat mainly N of the Cape Verde Islands and east of 43W. Seas across these northeastern waters will gradually reduce in areal coverage and subside below 12 ft near the Canary Islands on Mon.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17W, then curves southwestward to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 00N32W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05S to 04N west of 15W.
Gulf Of America
A surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure over SW Louisiana coastal waters extends basin-wide and supports gentle to moderate NE winds across the NE and SW Gulf. A tighter gradient of pressure in the SE Gulf due to the proximity of a frontal boundary over the NW Caribbean is generating fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft across the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel adjacent waters. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.
For the forecast, northeast fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas over the SE Gulf associated with the passage of a cold front will diminish later this morning. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region and prevail into the weekend.
Caribbean Sea
A stationary front extends across the far NW Caribbean from 22N80W to the Gulf of Honduras. Both the front and a pre-frontal trough continue to support scattered showers over the NW basin. Across the central basin, fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft prevail, with fresh winds and moderate seas farther east.
For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from the north Atlantic to east of the Bahamas and the NE Caribbean will continue to support fresh trade winds and rough seas across the waters near the Lesser Antilles, and the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Atlantic exposures and Passages through today. The stationary front over the far NW Caribbean will continue to weaken before dissipating by tonight. This should decrease the influence from the ridge and allow winds and seas across the central and eastern Caribbean to gradually diminish through the weekend.
Atlantic Ocean
A cold front extends from 31N69W to 27N74W and then stalls to Andros Island and western Cuba. Heavy showers associated with the front continue to affect the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the Florida Straits and SE Florida Seaboard. Moderate to fresh winds are ahead and behind this front. Over the far eastern subtropical Atlantic, the tail of a front tightens the pressure gradient and support a broad area of strong to near gale force N to NW winds and rough to very rough seas to 21 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, by this afternoon, the front will completely stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas. A weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the stationary front, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds with rough to very rough seas affecting the offshore waters N of 25N through the weekend as this system then transitions to a cold front and moves east of the area.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos
