BREAKING NEWS
TRACKING THE TROPICS
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Hagen
Special Features
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low will continue to gale-force off the coast of Colombia through this morning. Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Tropical Waves
A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 70W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are depicted along the wave axis from 11N to 13N.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from 09N41W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ and W of 47W.
Gulf Of America
The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward across Florida into the Gulf region. Associated southeasterly low-level flow continues to transport abundant low level moisture into the basin. Scattered showers are noted over the central Gulf. The subtropical ridge is supporting light to gentle winds east of 88W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail west of 88W, except for moderate to fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas 2 to 4 ft prevail across the basin.
For the forecast, a frontal boundary will remain N of the area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night.
Caribbean Sea
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia.
The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds reaching minimal gale-force offshore Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are with these winds. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean. Rough seas, generated by the strong winds in the central Caribbean, are reaching the SW part of the basin where moderate to fresh trades prevail. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are over the SW Caribbean.
For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America supports gale-force NE winds and rough seas over the south central Caribbean through this morning, and strong to near-gale trade winds across the central portion of the basin through the weekend. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong each evening through the forecast period.
Atlantic Ocean
A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters N of 24N between 53W and 64W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to fresh winds south of 23N and moderate seas, except for strong winds north of the Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the forecast period, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era
