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Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is analyzed along 39W from 03N to 14N, moving westward at 10 kt. The wave is devoid of significant deep convection at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 17N17W and continues SW to 07N24W. The ITCZ extends from 07N24W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends across northern Florida and connects to a 1012 mb low near 28N84W, then a cold front extends from the low to 24N86W. A stationary front continues from that point to 20N90W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the NW semicircle of the low from the Florida Big Bend to offshore SE Louisiana. Gentle to moderate northerlies are across the Bay of Campeche while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere as high pressure starts to build in the wake of the fronts. Seas are slight basin- wide, except moderate to 5 ft in the NW of the low where the strongest winds are ongoing.

For the forecast, the front is forecast to exit the SE Gulf tonight. High pressure and quiescent conditions will build behind the front today and Thu. Another weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri. Southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and 5-8 ft seas across the south-central to southwest Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean along with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent across the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, heavy showers and tstms are ongoing offshore Costa Rica near the E Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the weekend, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected across the remainder of forecast waters through Sun night, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sun night. Large E swell with rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters tonight through the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends across northern Florida and connects to a 1013 mb low near 31N85W. A broad area of scattered showers and tstms prevails across the W Atlantic mainly W of 63W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by high pressure located well N of the discussion waters. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 8-10 ft prevail from the coast of W Africa to just pass the Cape Verde Islands from 05N to 23N. Over the remainder tropical waters winds are moderate to fresh from the NE to E and seas are moderate to rough. Between 55W and the Bahamas, winds are moderate to fresh from the E to SE and seas moderate. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary off NE Florida will lift north of the area by Thu morning. A weak cold front will move off the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W to 25N72W Fri morning, from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning, then E of the area Sun. Fresh to strong S winds are expected N of 27N ahead of the front.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era