Go to the WJXT homepage

Tropical Waves

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 28N, south of 16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 21W and 27W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W, south of 17N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05.5N to 11.5N between 33W and 39W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W, south of 20N, moving W at at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 17N between 66W and 74W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 09N22W. The ITCZ is analyzed in two segments, from 08N27W to 08.5N36W, and from 09N38W to 06N55W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N between 15W and 51W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure extends a ridge across the western Atlantic SW to Florida, while a weak ridge persists across the SE U.S. And extends south-southwestward across the north Gulf waters. This pattern supports light to gentle winds and slight seas across most of the basin, except for moderate NE to E winds along coastal sections of the Yucatan Peninsula associated with afternoon thermal trough. Convergent low level winds are leading to scattered showers across the SE Gulf, and scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the north central Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period, supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through midweek. These winds are the result of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight to moderate seas are expected.

Caribbean Sea

1025 mb high pressure is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N37W and extends a relatively narrow ridge westward to the NW Bahamas and central Florida. The pressure gradient between this subtropical ridge and a 1010 mb Colombian Low continues to support fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft in the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are across the E Caribbean, behind the tropical wave. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail NW portions. Broad middle to upper-level low pressure across the western half of the basin is supporting scattered strong afternoon convection across Hispaniola and Cuba, and across the SW Caribbean south of 14N to the E Pacific extension of the monsoon continues, including inland over Panama, Costa Rica, and southeastern Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through midweek. The aerial extent of these winds will increase Sun night into Mon, and then expand across much of the basin east of 80W Tue through Thu as high pressure strengthens north of the basin. Expect winds to reach near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela from Sun through Wed. Active thunderstorms across SW portions of the basin will slowly shift northward into NW portions Sun through Tue.

Atlantic Ocean

A weakening frontal boundary continues to meander just north of the area along 32N-33N between 56W and 74W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist between the front and 27N between 53W and 73W. Similar shower activity is farther east within 90 nm either side of a surface trough that extends from 30N46W to 26N53W. Otherwise, the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward into the subtropical Atlantic waters, to 1025 mb high pressure near 29N37W, then westward to the NW Bahamas and central Florida. This pressure pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across much of the waters S of 22N between 25W and 70W, where seas are generally 6 to 8 ft. North of 22N and W of 40W away from the front and surface trough, winds are moderate or weaker from the S to SE with seas slight.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will build westward into central Florida through midweek. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds are likely each evening and night N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, including approaches to the Windward Passage, beginning on Sun. Look for winds to strengthen to fresh to strong S of 23N Tue night and Wed as a strong tropical wave moves approaches the region.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling