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Tropical Waves

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 19N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished this evening

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W, extending from 02N to 18N, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

Another central tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with its axis near 58W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm west of the wave from 11N to 17N.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W south of 19N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Numerous moderate convection is ahead of the wave axis and over the Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama offshore waters.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through 17N16W and continues southwestward to 12N25W to 11N39W, where it transitions to the ITCZ, then continues to 11N50W and to 11N57W. No significant convection is evident aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section above.

Gulf Of America

High pressure of 1021 mb, centered offshore Louisiana, dominates the Gulf waters, supporting mainly gentle winds and slight seas. Offshore the Florida Panhandle moderate W winds have developed in associated with a trough N of the area. Moderate to fresh NE to N winds are over the central and eastern Bay of Campeche due to a westward moving trough that along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas to around 6 ft are over the waters where these winds are present.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh winds N of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

Numerous moderate convection is noted in the NW basin W of 82W, in association with the interaction of a tropical wave to the SE and a surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. See the Tropical Waves section above for information on further convection caused by the tropical wave as well as additional thunderstorms entering the eastern basin in association with a second tropical wave. Fresh to locally strong trades and rough seas dominate the central basin, with moderate to fresh trades in the eastern and southwest basin, along with moderate seas. In the NW basin, away from convection where locally higher winds and seas are likely, gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean through this evening. The area of high pressure will then weaken through midweek, loosening the pressure gradient with resultant winds diminishing slightly. High pressure will build N of the area once again the second half of the week into the weekend, tightening the pressure gradient, and strengthening winds over the central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from a 1010 mb low center north of the area near 35N50W southwestward to 31N51W to 27N60W to 27N70W and northwestward to 31N74W. East of the front, to about 45W, and N of 27N, scattered moderate convection and fresh to strong SW winds prevail. To the W, south of the boundary to 25N, scattered moderate convection also is ongoing.

The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1028 mb high pressure center located north of the Azores. Its related gradient is supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will will stall and weaken into a trough by Tue. Winds in the vicinity of the front will diminish tonight. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across much of the area N of 22N through the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds can be expected S of 22N.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik