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Tropical Waves

A eastern Atlantic was introduced in the 12Z surface analysis. This wave is near 36W, south of 00N. Isolated moderate convection is found along the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has been repositioned to near 74W, south of 15N based on tropical wave diagnostics. This wave is currently interacting with lower pressures near Colombia and the eastern end of the Eastern Pacific Monsoon Trough. Thus, scattered moderate convection is depicted south of 12N.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to near 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 05N23W to 02N33W. Another portion of the ITCZ extends from 04N39.5W to 07N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 05N and east of 23W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted south of 09N between 39W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

A 1026 mb high pressure system centered east of Bermuda extends into the eastern Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas 2 to 4 ft. A surface trough over the NW Gulf is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms north of 22N and west of 90W. Winds and seas near this convection might be locally higher.

For the forecast, the high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little during the forecast period. The pressure gradient between it and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northern Mexico will generally maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow across the basin through the weekend, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours. A series of upper-level disturbances in a very moist and unstable environment is expected to keep unsettled weather conditions in the form of large thunderstorm complexes that will be moving ENE across the NW and west-central Gulf sections during the next few days. Mariners transiting through these waters should check the latest forecast and weather conditions prior to beginning or continuing their transits.

Caribbean Sea

Broad ridge located east of Bermuda forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. A few showers are noted south of Cuba and over the Yucatan Channel, while generally dry conditions prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- central portion of the Caribbean into early next week. These trades will continue to bring rough seas to that portion of the basin. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through the forecast period.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper level low situated north of the NW Bahamas continues to enhance the shower activity between 68W and 76W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge east of Bermuda. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted south of 27N and west of 55W.

A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N27W and continues southwestward to 27N62W. A few light showers are evident ahead of this front. The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure over France. A moderate pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Africa results in moderate to fresh northerly winds from 10N to 23N and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the large mid to upper-level low north of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from east of the Bahamas to near 71W and southward to near the southeastern Bahamas today through early Fri. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rain reducing visibility. Southeast winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings through the next few days. Otherwise, high pressure centered just north of the area will maintain rather quite marine conditions through the period.

Posted 38 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv