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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front will reach the NW Gulf late tonight, supporting fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds and rough seas behind the front. The front will reach from Apalachicola, Florida to Tamaulipas, Mexico Sat night, then from SW Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Sun afternoon and east of the basin by Sun night. Winds are expected to strengthen to gale-force behind the boundary late Sat into early Sun, especially over the central and southwestern Gulf Sun morning, including offshore Tampico and Veracruz. Rough to very rough seas will develop with these winds. Conditions will improve markedly on Mon.

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 02N30W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 06N between 12W and 26W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01N to 06N between 26W and 42W.

Gulf Of America

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

Broad surface high pressure ridging extends south-southwestward from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche, with mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. Although seas are gradually subsiding behind the recent cold front, seas are still 4 to 8 ft across much of this area, highest in the Yucatan Channel and southeast Gulf. Offshore Texas and northeastern Mexico, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are developing, with 3 to 4 ft seas. In the northeastern and north-central Gulf, seas have subsided to 2-4 ft. The dry, cold continental airmass moving across the basin is suppressing the development of any showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, please read the Special Features section for information on the gale force winds expected over the Gulf this weekend. Looking ahead, the pressure gradient will tighten again Tue into Wed, resulting in fresh to locally strong winds across much of the basin.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N77W to the north coast of Honduras near 16N86W. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted to the northwest of the boundary. A surface trough over the central Caribbean is inducing scattered moderate convection from 14N to 17N between 72W and 77W. Meanwhile, a strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the northeastern Caribbean, which is causing moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the eastern and central Caribbean, to the east of the front.

For the forecast, the cold front is expected to stall shortly and dissipate on Sat. Fresh to strong trades will pulse offshore of NW Colombia tonight, reaching near-gale force at night starting Sat night and into early next week. The pressure gradient may tighten later in the upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds and building seas across the basin ahead of a reinforcing front. Looking ahead, the front will arrive in the NW Caribbean early next week, and the tight pressure gradient behind it will sustain fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas during most of next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N64W to 25N70W to Mayaguana island, Bahamas to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers are just east of the front, north of 27N, while cloudiness with possible light isolated showers prevails elsewhere within 60 nautical miles of the front. Fresh to strong winds prevail on both sides of the front north of 29N between 57W and 71W, with lighter winds closer to northern Florida, where a 1022 mb high pressure is centered. North of 27N and west of the front, seas are 12-17 ft, with 8-12 ft seas still extending to just northeast of the Bahamas.

Farther east, a 1038 mb high pressure centered near the Azores governs the weather conditions across the eastern and central Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong trade winds seas of 7 to 11 ft are noted east of 47W and north of 20N, except these conditions extend as far south as the Cabo Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic. A cold front recently dipped southward and is now located from 31N13W to 29N23W to 31N35W. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and 8 to 11 ft seas prevail north of the front, with similar wind speeds and seas heights south of the front, due to the aforementioned trade winds. Elsewhere, closer to the northeastern Caribbean, mainly moderate wind speeds with 6 to 8 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front that extends from 31N64W to eastern Cuba will reach from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Another cold front may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend into early next week, supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas.

For the forecast east of 55W, winds and seas will increase late Saturday into Sunday from the Canary Islands northward, between the coast of Morocco and 24W, with strong to near-gale force winds and 11 to 16 ft seas. Meanwhile, trade winds will continue to be strong over this weekend from 18N to 26N and between 20W and 57W, with seas 9 to 13 ft.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Hagen