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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues south-southwestward to 01N20W and westward to 01S30W and to 01S37W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02S to 04N between 20W-27W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-34W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-28W.

Gulf Of America

A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin while a trough is near the coast of Mexico from near Tampico to Veracruz. The pressure gradient between these two features is allowing for moderate to fresh east winds west of 87W along with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds are east of 87W along with seas of 1 to 3 ft.

Satellite imagery shows low clouds and patches of fog along the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas and southwest Louisiana. Visibility may be reduced in these areas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through Wed morning. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then at mostly fresh speeds through Fri night. A weak cold front will brush the northern portion of the NE Gulf Thu through early Fri. A rather strong spring time cold front should emerge off the Texas coast late Fri night, then reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late on Sat. This front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with near gale winds possibly over the west- central and SW Gulf sections. Seas are presently forecast to build to 12 ft with these winds Sat and Sat night.

Caribbean Sea

Broad upper-level troughing, as seen in water vapor imagery, is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the central and eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure pattern across the basin is keeping moderate to fresh trades south of about 15N and east of 75W as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are mainly light to gentle across the remainder of the basin. Slight seas prevail between 68W and 85W, and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area, tightening the pressure gradient. The tighter pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean through Thu, reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat night.

Atlantic Ocean

Latest surface analysis depicts a frontal boundary from near 31N67W to just east of the northern Bahamas. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N64W to 26N78W and to near the coast of the Dominican Republic at 20N71W. Fresh northeast to east winds are northwest of the front along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Overnight scatterometer satellite indicates moderate to fresh southeast to south winds east of the pre-frontal trough north of 27N and east to near 55W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 6 ft. Numerous moderate convection is noted east of the frontal boundary and trough to near 58W and north of 27N. Farther east, a weak 1015 mb low is near 30N31W, with a cold front extending to 25N35W and to 23N45W, where a trough continues to 24N50W and northwestward to 26N55W and to 27N62W. A ridge axis behind the front extends from a 1024 mb high that is north of the area at 34N54W southeastward to near 27N40W. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are west of the front to near 38W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell.

Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern part of the basin. The related gradient is generally maintaining moderate to fresh trades over most of the basin south of about 20N, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas across most of the Atlantic outside from the frontal boundaries are 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary will reach from near 31N58W to 25N63W and weakening to near 24N71W by early this evening, then move E of 55W on Wed. Moderate to fresh northeast winds along with moderate seas NW of the front will diminish this morning. A cold front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon before passing E of 55W on Sat.

Posted 1 hour, 29 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre