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Tropical Waves

A new tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa. Its axis is along 17W S of 15N. The Howmoller Diagram indicates the westward propagation of this system. The TPW also shows the presence of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis.

A second tropical wave is near 30W, south of 13N moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 03N to 06N between 25W and 34W.

Another tropical wave is along 54W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 02N to 10N between 47W and 58W.

A tropical wave is now in the far eastern Caribbean Sea along 63W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over portions of eastern Venezuela.

Another tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean Sea. Its axis is along 80W, south of 18N into the EPAC region. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed near the northern portion of the wave axis and just south of Jamaica to about 14N.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of western Africa near 12.5N16W and continues southwestward to 04N28W. The ITCZ extends from 02N31W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5N51W where scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 04N W of 48W. Additional convection across the area is related to the above mentioned tropical waves.

Gulf Of America

High pressure over the western Atlantic and the SE of the United States extends a ridge across the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh winds in the Straits of Florida and to the N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are slight to moderate within these wind speeds. An area of showers and thunderstorms is noted over the SW Gulf, particularly S of 22.5N and W of 94W.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf through at least early next week. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will allow moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings. Slight to moderate seas are expected.

Caribbean Sea

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for more details.

High pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low supports moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the majority of the basin, with the exception of the SW Caribbean where light to gentle winds are noted per recent scatterometer data. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are blowing in the Gulf of Honduras with moderate seas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring just south of Jamaica, and in the SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean today as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will begin to increase again over the central Caribbean late tonight into Sun, and over the NW part of the basin Sun night into Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central America.

Atlantic Ocean

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.

A frontal boundary extends from 31N60W to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the front. High pressure over the southeastern United States and the western Atlantic follows this system. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure situated SW of the Azores 34N33W. Under the influence of this feature, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is seen N of 20N E of front to about 25W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 25W, including the Canary Islands. The strongest winds are between the islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to dissipate today. A surface trough will linger and drift westward through Mon night. Then, a cold front will reach the northern forecast waters on Tue, and move southward to near 27N by Tue night. This weather pattern will support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into early next week.

Posted 1 hour, 50 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Gr