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Special Features

Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower pressures in northwest Africa supports strong to gale- force northerly winds in the marine zone of Agadir. Gale-force winds are expected to occur through 06/1200 UTC, with severe gusts. These winds will create rough seas of 10-12 ft and higher. Similar conditions will continue into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is along 23W-24W, south of 13N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 08N between 18W and 30W.

A tropical wave is along 49W-50W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident S of 09N between 44W and 54W.

Another tropical wave is along 60W-61W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis S of 10N and extends inland across Venezuela.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 72W-73W, south of 176N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 18.5N between 70W and 78W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14.5N17W and continues southwestward to 05N28W. The ITCZ extends from 05N28W to 08N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 09.5N between 09W and 19W. Elsewhere, significant convection in this area is primarily associated with the tropical waves previously mentioned.

Gulf Of America

Recent satellite scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong E to SE winds over the northeastern Gulf and into SE Louisiana, north of a dissipated stationary front that extended across western Cuba to to near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Seas across these waters are 3 to 4 ft offshore of western Florida and increase to 6 to 8 ft E of the Mississippi Delta. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail elsewhere E of 93W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. W of 93W winds are light and variable, with seas of 3 to 5 ft NW portions and 3 ft or less SW portions. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are across NE central portions, near the dissipated frontal boundary, and across NW portions.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail across the Gulf region through Tue. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings. Disturbed weather may develop across south-central and eastern portions of the basin Thu night through Fri.

Caribbean Sea

The Atlantic ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure located near 33N33W, extends southwestward to near 25N70W, and north of the N Caribbean. The ridge, combined with the Colombian low, supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered convection is active across central portions generally N of 14N, as a tropical wave interacts with an upper trough across the western Atlantic and Bahamas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The exception will be fresh to strong pulses in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Winds will begin to increase again over the central Caribbean by Sat night, and over the NW part of the basin early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and broad area of low pressure over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central America.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the Meteo-France forecast region.

A stationary frontal boundary extends from SE of Bermuda through 31N63W southwestward through the central Bahamas and into western Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing over much of the central and southern Bahamas, and within 180 nm SE of the frontal boundary, supported by a middle to upper-level trough across the western Atlantic. Weak high pressure across the SE U.S. Is promoting gentle to moderate N to NE winds behind the front, where seas are 5 to 6 ft in N to NE swell. To the east, 1028 mb high pressure is located SW of the Azores, producing a broad subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh trades across the vast majority of the Atlantic W of 30W, and seas of 5 to 8 ft. Fresh to strong SW winds prevail within 180 nm east of the stationary front, and N of 29N. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 30W, where seas area 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Saharan air dominates the region S of 23N between Africa and 40W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front from SE of Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western Cuba will dissipate late into Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. This pattern will support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into early next week.

Posted 1 hour, 44 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling