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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W then runs westward to near 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 03N28W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 07N between 03W and 22W and from 00N to 07N between 27W and 44W.

Gulf Of America

A weak cold front extends from the Florida Straits to 24N87W where it becomes and stationary front that continues W to just N of Tampico, Mexico. A surface trough over the central Bay of Campeche is generated scattered moderate convection. Winds basin- wide are moderate or weaker from the E to SE, and seas are slight.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build over the northern Gulf as the frontal system from the Straits of Florida to N of Tampico continues to weaken. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over much of the basin through Sun as the front slowly dissipates. Locally fresh NE winds will be possible in the Bay of Campeche on Sun as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas will develop over the central and eastern Gulf early next week as a cold front pushes off the coast of the southeastern United States. Locally strong NE winds and rough seas will be possible through the Florida Straits.

Caribbean Sea

High pressure E of the Bahamas and low pressure over NW Colombia continues to support a pressure gradient that is resulting in fresh to strong NE to E winds in the south-central Caribbean along with rough seas to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are elsewhere in the east, central and southwest Caribbean. Moderate or weaker NE to NE winds are over the NW basin along with slight seas.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas are expected offshore of northern Colombia through Wed as low pressure prevails over NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will occur over much of the remainder basin through the middle of next week, supported by high pressure to the north. A pair of cold fronts will move across the SW N Atlantic waters and will support the development of strong speed NE winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, rough seas in E to SE swell in the tropical Atlantic waters will slowly subside into Sun evening.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N70W to the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Ahead of the front, there is a 1019 mb high near 27N66W. Farther east, a 1015 mb low near 28N56W continues to weaken. A broad surface ridge extends across the remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters. West of 55W, winds are moderate or weaker and seas moderate to rough. Fresh to strong NE to E and E to SE winds along with rough seas to 12 ft are ongoing elsewhere over the subtropical waters E of 55W as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and a frontal boundary that extends from NW Africa to 26N28W to 31N35W. Scattered showers are to the E of the low and south of the frontal boundary between 21W and 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, a 1016 mb low located near 28N56W and associated weakening stationary front will weaken into a surface trough later today. Widespread rough seas in N to NE swell associated with this low east of 64W will subside today. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will push off the coast of the southeastern U.S. Sun night into Mon, supporting widespread strong NE winds and rapidly building seas in the wake of the front into the middle of next week.

Posted 6 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos