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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W and continues southwestward to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed south of 04N between 18W and 28W and from 01N to 05.5N between 35W and 46W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front straddles the northern Gulf coastal waters, from the western Florida Panhandle to the central Texas coast, and is drifting slowly southward in recent hours. A weak pressure gradient is noted across the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to locally moderate seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will meander across the northern Gulf through Sat morning. Weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf will be replaced by slightly stronger high pressure that will build from the N on Sat. An arctic cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf on Sat, briefly stall there through Sat night, then move SE across the entire basin Sun through Mon evening. Strong reinforcing high pressure behind the front is expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night, and possible gale conditions over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night, then over the waters offshore Veracruz on Mon. Expect areas of dense fog along and just offshore the Texas coast through this morning.

Caribbean Sea

A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends a ridge into the SE Bahamas and just N of the basin. The associated pressure gradient is forcing fresh to locally near gale- force NE-E winds and rough seas in the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to locally strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are present in the north- central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, light to locally moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas are prevalent. A weak surface trough is moving across the eastern Caribbean, producing isolated, showers across the E and NE basin.

For the forecast, broad central Atlantic high pressure will maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early next week, while winds pulse strong to near gale force offshore of Colombia at night. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside through the weekend, but remain around 8 ft through early next week. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Tue.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough in the SW North Atlantic extends into the NW Bahamas, where a 1017 mb low pressure center persist. Converging low level winds coupled with divergence aloft is generating scattered convection north of 26N between 65W and 77W. Moderate NE winds and moderate seas are noted north of this trough and low. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of an extensive subtropical ridge that is centered on a 1031 mb high near 37N41W, and sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas to 12 ft in easterly swell, mainly south of 28N and east of 60W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and rough seas are found south of 25N and between 60W and 70W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front remains just N of the northwestern waters this morning and extends inland across Georgia. Meanwhile, high pressure is centered across the central Atlantic. High pressure will shift E off the Middle Atlantic U.S. Coast Sat and Sun and force the front southward to along 30N before lifting N of the area Sun night. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will then develop over the NW forecast waters late Sun through early Mon in advance of a strong arctic cold front that is expected to move offshore northeastern Florida early Mon. The front will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms as it reaches from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Mon evening, and from near 31N55W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling