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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 11N15W, then curves southwestward to 00N35W. The ITCZ extends from 02N22W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N and east of 30W.

Gulf Of America

A few showers are seen over the SE Gulf waters, especially close to the coast of Cuba. Generally dry conditions are noted elsewhere. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Bay of Campeche and SE Gulf. However, mariners may experience stronger gusts associated with the stronger convection. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

Satellite images indicate that smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico is affecting the SW Gulf waters. Mariners may experience diminished visibility in the area.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas basin-wide through the weekend into the early part of next week. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the evenings. Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely in an area of showers and thunderstorms currently located over the far SE Gulf and the Florida Straits, which is moving eastward tonight.

Caribbean Sea

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north of 18N due to a stationary front draped across Hispaniola and between eastern Cuba and Jamaica and divergence aloft. Meanwhile, drier weather conditions evident in the rest of the basin. The pressure gradient between a weak ridge to the north of the islands and the frontal boundary supports fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and moderate seas in the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and slight seas are found in the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will weaken over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal boundary, currently located north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming weekend. This weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend, resulting in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front extends from a low pressure near the Azores to 31N42W and to 26N51W, followed by a stationary front to Hispaniola. A few showers are noted near this boundary. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present ahead of the front to 31W and north of 27N. Rough seas are noted behind the front to 51W and north of 27N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident south of 25N and west of 60W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge.

The central and eastern Atlantic are under the influence of a 1020 mb high pressure system near 27N30W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa support moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft from 08N to 27N and east of 23W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1001 mb low north of the area near 38N40W south-southwestward to 31N45W and to 25N53W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 20N61W and to across north-central Hispaniola and to Haiti. A trough extends from the northern Leeward Islands to near 15N65W. Isolated showers are possible near the trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N41W to 25N50W where it becomes a stationary front to Hispaniola near 19N69W. The front will remain nearly stationary just N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico on Fri. The remnant moisture associated with the frontal boundary will lift northward as a trough Sat through Sun. A weak low may develop along the trough axis E of the Bahamas on Sun. This will support gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas across most of the forecast area through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh to locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning on Fri as another cold front clips the region by late Sat into Sun.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado