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Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 21W from 04N to 19N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 10N to 19N between 16W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's environment.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, south of 19N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 12N to 17N between 64W and 69W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and dives southward to a 1010 mb low pres near 16N24W and then continues southwestward to 07N43W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 06N47W to 06N53W. No significant convection is noted at this time.

Gulf Of America

The western portion of the subtropical ridge extends into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of the area is producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters, mainly along the coast, while generally dry conditions are prevalent in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh E to NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend and into next week as an upper-level trough and cold front at the surface drop southward toward the Gulf states. Fresh southwest winds look to develop ahead of the front over the far northern Gulf late this weekend.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge north of the basin forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across much of the central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, rough seas offshore Colombia will slowly subside through Sat. A persistent enhanced pressure gradient across the Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades in the central basin through this weekend and much of next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then diminish to moderate to fresh speeds for the remainder of the period. A tropical wave, currently over the eastern Caribbean near 66W, is accompanied by increasing showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds. The wave will quickly move westward across the remainder of the basin through Mon night.

Atlantic Ocean

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active north of 28N and west of 70W. Fresh SW winds are evident in this area, with 5-7 ft seas. Elsewhere, the remainder of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic is influenced by a 1025 mb high pressure area centered near 33N50W. This pattern is supporting mostly moderate NE to E winds and 4-6 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge will lift N to near 28N by Sun and change little through next week. The gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 26N and west of 70W through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era