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Tropical Waves

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed near 42W, S of 17N moving quickly westward at 20-25 kt. Any nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ in the section below.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed near 57W, S of 16N to along the border of Guyana and Suriname, moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ in the section below.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is near 83W, S of 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ in the section below.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends across portions of Mauritania just offshore into the Atlantic Ocean from 17.5N16W to near 14.5N19W. The ITCZ extends from well S of the Cabo Verde Islands near 09N25W to 07N40W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 07.5N46W to 07N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from approximately 03N to 12N between 36W and 59W. Similar convection is noted within 210 nm SW of the coast of Africa between 11W and 19W.

Gulf Of America

Subtropical ridging continues to be the dominant feature over the basin, with the axis extending into the central Gulf from the east. A surface trough that extends from near Apalachee Bay, Florida into the N-central Gulf near 28N90W is supporting some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms just off the coast of the Florida Panhandle. Isolated activity can be found across portions of the remainder of the Gulf in a moist summer-time pattern. Winds are moderate or weaker, mainly anticyclonic, throughout the basin, with generally slight seas, locally moderate seas in the central Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the basin through the forecast period, thus supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western half of the Gulf, except for fresh to strong ENE winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast for the eastern half of the Gulf while slight seas are forecast basin-wide.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure over northern South America continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin, with moderate to fresh E winds elsewhere, except weaker in the NW Caribbean N of 20N. Seas of 7-11 ft are present in the central basin, with slight seas in the NW basin, and 4-7 ft seas elsewhere. Convection in the western Caribbean is mainly associated with a tropical wave and is described in the above section. Scattered moderate convection is noted between the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, being induced by upper-level divergence.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through the week. The aerial extent of these winds will continue to increase through midweek as the Atlantic ridge continues to build westward. By Wed, the fresh to strong winds are expected to extend across most of the east, central and SW Caribbean. Expect winds to reach near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Fri. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast at night through the forecast period.

Atlantic Ocean

The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic N of 20N, and is anchored by 1026 mb high pressure centered near 29N39W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas for waters N of 22N and W of 20W, slightly higher seas E of 40W, with mainly fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas to the S of 22N. Upper level divergence to the east of a trough aloft is leading to scattered moderate convection N of 22N and W of 63W, including in the vicinity of the Bahamas. A surface trough N of 31N in the central Atlantic supports some similar activity across the discussion waters N of 27N between 43W and 63W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are found from 19N to the Canary and Madeira Islands between Africa and 24W due to the normally tight pressure gradient found across that region, where seas are also locally rough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will stay in place through the forecast period. This pattern will continue to support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 23N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Strong winds, with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, through Fri night.

Posted 59 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky