WEATHER ALERT
TRACKING THE TROPICS
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Coast: Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited and disorganized in association with an area of low pressure along a frontal boundary located off the southeastern U.S. Coast. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for some tropical development over the next day or two as the system drifts southward and then westward before conditions become even less favorable later this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 10 percent.
Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Waves
A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic along 19W, south of 16N, based on satellite imagery, total precipitable water and wave guidance data. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N and between 23W and 40W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 66W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 15N and between 55W and 66W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W, south of 19N, moving westward near 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 09N24W. The ITCZ extends from 09N24W to 07N34W and continues from 07N37W to 05N54W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 09N and east of 19W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N and between 40W and 55W.
Gulf Of America
The pressure gradient between a high pressure in the NE Gulf and lower pressures in Mexico support fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and moderate seas south of 23N and between 88W and 94W. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the remainder of the western Gulf (west of 90W). Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sat night due to local effects associated with a surface trough. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning and then prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf.
Caribbean Sea
The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found across the Greater Antilles and nearby waters mainly due to diurnal heating. Similar convection is present in the SE Caribbean and off NE Nicaragua.
For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, reaching near-gale force offshore of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days.
Atlantic Ocean
The shower and thunderstorms activity north of the Leeward Islands has mostly dissipated. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 22N and east of 30W.
In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 20N and east of 24W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed winds up to 32 kt between the water passages in the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, while most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen in the late afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. A weak cold front located off of the SE United States coast will extend from 31N72W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. The front is anticipated to dissipate on Wed while the low pressure area N of the region associated with the front appear to have only a marginally favorable environment for some tropical development as the system drifts southward and then westward later this week. Currently, the forecast keeps the low just N of 30N through Wed.
Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado
