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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 02N17W. The ITCZ extends from 02N17W to Brazil near 02S47W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the Equator and W of 36W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from the far western Panhandle of Florida near Pensacola to just SE of the SE Louisiana to just S of Brownsville, Texas in far NE Mexico. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are W of the front and 4-7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds under weak ridging are E of the front with two weak surface troughs analyzed. Scattered convection is W of a line from 29N89W to 22N93W.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to 26N95W and to 19N95W this evening, from northeast Florida to 26N94W and to 19N994.5W tonight, then begin to slow down as it reaches from near Tampa to 26N92W and stationary to 18N94W by early Mon afternoon, from southwest Florida to 25N90W to 24N94W and stationary to 18N94W late Mon night, then stall and perhaps linger into most of Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, are expected near the front. Fresh to strong northeast northeast winds and rough seas will develop behind the front across portions of the western Gulf into Mon, then similar conditions will materialize over the NE Gulf Tue through Thu. Near gale, to at times gale conditions, are possible near Florida Wed and Wed night. Conditions improve Fri and Fri night as high pressure from the eastern U.S will stretch southwestward toward the northern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between subtropical Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to locally strong trades offshore Colombia, where seas are analyzed at 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds and 4-7 ft seas are noted in the eastern and central basin, with gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas in the western basin. No significant convection is noted on satellite imagery over the basin waters.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will shift eastward through Mon allowing for pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia to diminish. A trough just north of Hispaniola will drift west-northwestward toward the Bahamas through Tue. The gradient between it and central Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Trades may increase again in the south-central Caribbean beginning mid-week as a new and stronger area of high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic in the wake of a cold front.

Atlantic Ocean

Areas of high pressure centered near Bermuda and the Iberian Peninsula are dominating the basin. A band of fresh to strong E-SE winds are noted S of 27N to 20N and E of the Bahamas to 55W. Seas are 6-10 ft across these waters. Scattered moderate convection is also across these waters. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere S of 29N and W of 50W along with 5-8 ft seas, with gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong east winds and rough seas E of the Bahamas and N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico will gradually decrease into Mon as Bermuda high pressure moves E and weakens. In the wake of the high, a cold front will move off the SE U.S. Coast early Mon, then slide slowly eastward through early week. As it does, a westward moving inverted trough N of Hispaniola will likely interact with the front and low pressure may form as a result along the front in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Any low that forms will track northeastward along the frontal boundary, then N of the region Wed into Thu. The pressure gradient between the low pressure and high pressure building in to the SE U.S. Will lead to widespread strong to near gale-force northeast winds N and W of the cold front Tue through late week, along with very rough seas. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecast and stay informed for possible gale conditions developing as early as Tue.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky