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Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low pressure over northern Colombia, except minimal gale force tonight. After Sun night, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail there. Seas to 12 ft will occur within these winds.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the coast of Texas tonight. Strong to near-gale force N winds following the front will rapidly reach gale force near Tampico late Sat morning and afternoon, and in Veracruz adjacent waters Sat evening through Mon. Winds may peak around 45 kt near Veracruz. Seas will quickly build and likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and then continues to 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 02N35W and to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 07N and west of 17W.

Gulf Of America

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Bay of Campeche area. Please read the Special Features section above for details.

A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends southwestward to the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures associated with a cold front over the southern United States result in moderate to fresh SE-S winds over much of the basin, especially east of 96W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds off the northern Yucatan will diminish late tonight, while moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds elsewhere also weaken ahead of an incoming cold front. The front will move off the coast of Texas late tonight. Strong to near-gale force N winds following the front will rapidly reach gale force near Tampico late Sat morning and afternoon, and in Veracruz adjacent waters Sat evening through Mon. Winds may peak around 45 kt near Veracruz. Seas will quickly build and likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds and building seas by Wed night.

Caribbean Sea

A Gale Warning is in effect the waters off NW Colombia. Please read the Special Features section above for details.

The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America results in strong to near gale-force NE winds in the south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas prevail. No significant convection is noted across the Caribbean basin.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low pressure over northern Colombia, except minimal gale force tonight. After Sun night, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail there. Seas to 12 ft will occur within these winds. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will be likely pulsing at night over the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola through Sat night, with similar winds pulsing in the lee of Cuba tonight and Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail, except for moderate to fresh winds near the Gulf of Honduras tonight. A decaying cold front may move into or near the far NW Caribbean early next week where it will stall and wash out.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad 1030 mb high pressure system centered a few hundred miles south of Nova Scotia dominates much of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W. A cold front extends from near 31N51W to 26N65W, where it becomes a dissipating cold front to 29N73W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are found west of a line from 31N50W to Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, the central and eastern tropical Atlantic waters are dominates by a 1034 mb high pressure system located north of Madeira. A tight pressure gradient forces fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the waters east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure building and sliding eastward in the wake of a cold front that extends from 28N55W to 26.5N67W to 29N72W will support moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters E of the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank, and the approaches to the Windward Passage through Sun, with locally strong winds near the Windward Passage as the front washes out. A new cold front will emerge off the NE Florida coast Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, the front will become stationary as it dissipates Mon night into Tue. The next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed night.

Posted 41 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado