JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the Democrat in Florida's race for governor, crossed the 50 percent threshold in his lead over former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.
The survey of 888 likely Florida voters found Gillum leading 54-45 over DeSantis.
This compares to a too-close-to-call outcome in a Sept. 4 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University poll, showing Gillum with 50 percent and DeSantis with 47 percent.
Women and independent voters are the main drivers of Gillum's lead, with women backing the Democrat 59-39 percent, while men are divided with 51 percent for DeSantis and 48 percent for Gillum.
Republicans back DeSantis 90-9 percent, while Gillum leads 96-2 percent among Democrats. The poll found that independent voters back Gillum 56-40 percent.
Black and Hispanic voters also contribute to the Democrat's lead. Black voters back Gillum 98-2 percent and Hispanic voters support him 59-41 percent. White voters back DeSantis 53-45 percent.
Among Florida likely voters who name a candidate choice, 94 percent say their mind is made up.
"Former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis appears to be outspending Mayor Andrew Gillum, his Democratic opponent, in television advertising by a sizable amount, usually a sign of a winning campaign," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Yet, all these TV ads don't seem to be helping DeSantis' campaign."
Earlier this week, the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab statewide poll found Gillum with a 47-43 percent lead in the race.
"This poll shows a much bigger gap than people were expecting," Jacksonville University Public Policy Institute Director Rick Mullaney said. "The UNF poll also had a lead for Gillum. When you combine the two, (it's) a bit of a wake up call for Congressman Desantis, showing he has some work to do."
Gillum gets a 55-31 percent favorability rating in the Quinnipiac poll, while DeSantis gets a slightly negative 42-47 percent favorability rating.
Gillum is too liberal, 39 percent of Florida likely voters say, while 54 percent say he is neither too liberal nor too conservative.
DeSantis is too conservative, 39 percent of voters say, as 52 percent say he is neither too liberal nor too conservative.
"Those TV ads, run in an effort to introduce DeSantis to Florida voters, are airing at the same time his favorability numbers are sinking and Mayor Gillum's are rising," Brown said. "At this point, Gillum's biggest asset is just that voters like him better."
For 20 percent of Florida likely voters, the economy is the most important issue in their vote for governor, as 14 percent name immigration, 14 percent list education, 14 percent cite health care, with 13 percent for the environment and 12 percent for gun policy.
Only 25 percent of Florida voters say race relations in the state will get better if Gillum is elected, as 27 percent say race relations will get worse and 43 percent say they will stay the same.
Quinnipiac University polls use random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cellphones. Quinnipiac conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.