Seismologist says aftershocks will continue after Turkey, Syria quake

News4JAX speaks with Dr. Lucy Jones, one of the world’s leading experts on earthquakes.

Aerial photo shows the destruction in Kahramanmaras, southern Turkey, Wednesday, Feb. 8, 2023. (Ahmet Akpolat/DIA via AP ) (Ahmet Akpolat, DIA)

The catastrophic earthquake that razed thousands of buildings in Turkey and Syria became one of the deadliest quakes worldwide in more than a decade Wednesday, and the death toll kept rising, surpassing 11,000.

A major 7.8 magnitude earthquake followed by another strong quake devastated wide swaths of Turkey and Syria early Monday. The other strong quake — magnitude 7.5 — hit Turkey nine hours after the main jolt. Though scientists were studying whether that was an aftershock, they agreed that the two quakes are related.

“To have a 7.5 after a 7.8, you usually need some fault that hasn’t broken yet, some fresh fault, and we often see it,” Dr. Lucy Jones, a seismologist, told News4JAX.

Jones has been studying seismologic events around the world since the late 1970s. She is now one of the world’s leading experts on earthquakes. She says to understand the earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria, first look at the Anatolian fault line that runs near the border of both countries. It’s like the San Andreas Fault in California. Both are identified as strike-slip faults.

“That means it’s a vertical fault. One side moves sideways past the other, and shaking is released from the whole surface,” Jones said.

In this case, shaking was released closer to the earth’s surface where it was felt, even though Jones says data shows the earthquake began about 10.5 miles below the surface.

“It means people are located much closer to the source of the shaking than in many other types of earthquakes,” Jones said. ”And so right along the fault, you can see high levels of shaking.”

That high level of shaking resulted in massive destruction and loss of life. But Jones says the aftershocks will continue.

“The aftershocks decay with time as one over time. This means, however, aftershocks you had on your first day, you’ll have about half as many on the second day and a third as many on the third day,” Jones said. “By the time you get out to day 10, you only have one-tenth or 10 percent of the number you had on the first day.”

Jones says the death, destruction and displacement of people in Turkey and Syria are tragic reminders of what can happen when people live close to active fault lines.

“And I think it’s something we all need to remember for future earthquakes for the rest of us is that earthquakes are not equal opportunity. People who are already on the margin suffer much more,” Jones said.

On Monday, the U.S. Geological Survey recorded more than 100 earthquakes around the world, including some in the U.S., but many of those quakes were so small that they were not felt. Jones says it is normal that have that many quakes in a day. Jones says in the U.S., it is common to have between five and 10 quakes a day measuring 2.5 on the Richter Scale.

Panic among families in America trying to contact loved ones overseas

Right after news broke of the massive earthquake, Mine Yuksel — who now lives in South Florida — tried to contact her family in Adana, Turkey.

“It was devastating,” Yuksel said. “You’re trying to call every phone number you know. Every neighbor. I just remembered every neighbor I had. Just to say that your building is there, and your mom is OK.”

The apartment building her parents were living in is still standing, but no one is allowed to go back inside because the earthquake left it structurally compromised.

Her parents are now staying with friends who live in a single-story home. Her brother is staying with a friend. She says other relatives who survived have no place to go.

One of her relatives say there is a makeshift indoor shelter where hundreds of people have gathered. Tents have been set up in an area far away from buildings.

Yuksel is now buying clothes, snacks, toiletries and sleeping bags to send to Adana.

Cana Ozaktay is the president of the Florida Turkish American Association, one of many organizations raising money for people who are now displaced.

In the middle of our interview, new information came in showing how dire the situation remains.

“There’s something we just received saying that we need more help in the search teams because there is just not enough,” Ozaktay said. “There are so many people who are captured underneath the rubble.”

If you would like to offer assistance, you can donate here: https://donate.tpfund.org/ftaa.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.


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