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Model predicts Florida COVID-19 deaths will peak April 21

University of Washington model projects death toll in Florida will rise to 6,770 by August 4

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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The highest number of coronavirus deaths for a single day in Florida will happen on April 21, a model designed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington predicts.

The new projected date is nearly two weeks earlier than the originally projected date of May 3.

The model, which is conducted under the direction of professor Chris Murray and was updated on April 5 to include a number of different data sources, predicts there will be 242 deaths in Florida on April 21.

The number of deaths per day projected in Florida.
The number of deaths per day projected in Florida. (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation)

The date predicted for Florida’s coronavirus peak is later than the projected peak of daily deaths in the United States on April 16.

The model also estimates the death toll in Florida will rise to 6,770 by August 4, while the death toll in the U.S. will increase to 81,766 by that date.

According to the data, the peak of the strain to the U.S. health care system is projected to occur on April 15. Florida is not expected to face a shortage in the overall number of hospital beds, but the state is expected to be short 769 intensive care unit beds, according to the model.

Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House Coronavirus Task Force response coordinator, backed the university’s findings at a news conference last month, saying the results mirror the Coronavirus Task Force’s data.

As of the evening of April 6, according to the Florida Department of Health, there were 13,629 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the state and 254 deaths.


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