JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – After years of sticker shock, there may finally be some relief ahead for Jacksonville homebuyers.
A new forecast from Realtor.com suggests 2026 could mark a turning point in the housing market, with conditions gradually shifting away from sellers and toward a more balanced market.
“For a couple of years there, it felt like sellers had all the power,” said Joel Berner, a senior economist at Realtor.com. “Homes would list on a Thursday and be sold by Sunday, sometimes for $50,000 over asking price.”
Those days are long gone. According to Realtor.com’s outlook, 2026 is expected to be a “balancing year,” with buyers gaining more leverage as inventory grows and prices level.
“Things have slowed down,” Berner said. “Buyers have more options to choose from than they did a few years ago, and better prices on those homes as well.”
Nationally, Realtor.com expects home sales to rise about 2% next year, with prices also increasing modestly. But Jacksonville is expected to move in the opposite direction.
Local sales are projected to decline by nearly 7%, while home prices in the Jacksonville area are forecast to fall between 1.5% and 2% — compared with a projected 2.2% price increase nationwide.
Berner said the key factor driving Jacksonville’s trend is inventory.
“Inventory has rebounded in Jacksonville and in Florida as a whole much faster than it has in other parts of the country,” he said.
That shift is expected to help affordability, especially for buyers who have struggled to break into the market.
“Affordability is going to improve in 2026,” Berner said. “That’s primarily due to lower mortgage rates.”
Mortgage rates are expected to hover around 6.3% in 2026, lower than earlier this year and potentially even lower at the start of the year. Homes are also spending more time on the market, another sign conditions are cooling.
While the outlook may be encouraging for buyers, experts say sellers will need to adjust their expectations.
“If you think your home is worth $500,000, don’t list it for $550,000 and try to walk it down,” Berner said. “That just causes homes to sit longer and raises questions about why it hasn’t sold. Pricing competitively from the start is the best advice.”
The forecast does not suggest a dramatic drop in prices or a housing crash. Instead, economists say the market appears to be settling into something closer to pre-pandemic norms with more balance between buyers and sellers.
For Jacksonville residents who have been priced out or waiting on the sidelines, Berner says that shift could make 2026 a year of renewed opportunity.