JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – A report from a Jacksonville firm found that grocery affordability has improved since its low point in 2023, but many consumers continue to shop with a heightened focus on value, promotions and price comparisons.
The Acosta Group’s Affordability Tracker measures purchasing power by comparing the cost of an 84-item “Typical Stock‑Up Trip” to median hourly earnings. Acosta Group says the basket now costs $366.04, about $78 higher than in a comparable period in 2020 — a 27% increase.
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The tracker also reports that the number of hours a median full‑time worker must work to afford the basket has fallen from about 12.6 hours at the 2023 peak to roughly 11.9 hours in the latest period.
“Price increases alone do not tell the whole story. Neither do wage increases,” said Colin Stewart, executive vice president of business intelligence at Acosta Group. “Understanding affordability requires examining both together.”
Wage gains helped restore some purchasing power. The report notes median hourly earnings for full‑time wage and salary workers rose from $23.93 in 2020 to $30.88 in early 2026, helping offset a portion of the grocery price surge that was concentrated between 2021 and 2023.
But the recovery has slowed. After steady improvement from 2023 through 2025, Acosta Group found affordability has largely leveled off, and future gains are likely to be incremental. At the same time, shopping behaviors developed during the inflationary period appear to be persistent: consumers remain highly engaged with promotions, more likely to compare prices and more deliberate about purchases than before the inflation surge.
The tracker’s findings carry implications for retailers and consumer goods companies, the report says. Although headline inflation has moderated, elevated shelf prices and continued pressure from other household costs — including housing, health care and insurance — mean many shoppers still view groceries through a value lens. That shift makes pricing, promotional strategy and clear value communication especially important.
The Acosta Group said the Affordability Tracker is designed to provide a practical measure of grocery purchasing power by linking price changes to earnings and that future editions may broaden the analysis beyond grocery affordability.
Key facts from the report
- Typical Stock‑Up Trip (84 items): $366.04 (about $78 more than in 2020; +27%).
- Hours of work required (median full‑time worker): ~11.9 hours in the latest period; about 12.6 hours in 2023.
- Median hourly earnings (full‑time workers): $23.93 in 2020 → $30.88 in early 2026.
- Trend: Affordability improved from the 2023 low point but has largely plateaued; inflation‑era shopping habits remain.
What retailers and brands should know
Acosta Group’s analysis suggests that improved affordability does not necessarily mean shoppers will abandon the value-seeking behaviors they adopted during the inflation surge. Retailers and brands that clearly communicate value, rethink promotional strategies and consider shoppers’ broader budget pressures may be better positioned to regain or expand market share.
Data Sources
The Acosta Group Affordability Tracker combines proprietary Acosta Group analysis with external data sources to evaluate affordability and purchasing power over time.
Grocery pricing data is sourced from NIQ Discover Total U.S. Food sales data and is used to calculate the cost of Acosta Group’s Typical Stock-Up Trip. Wage data is sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and reflects median hourly earnings for full-time wage and salary workers. The analysis, findings and conclusions presented in this report are those of Acosta Group.
The report is the inaugural edition of the Acosta Group Affordability Tracker and focuses on grocery affordability; the firm said future editions may explore other spending areas.