With midterm elections drawing closer, questions about election security, federal authority, and voter enthusiasm gaps — who actually shows up — are taking center stage.
A former White House attorney is warning that a series of executive actions — from changes to voting rules to the removal of election oversight officials — may be laying the groundwork for unprecedented federal intervention in the upcoming midterm elections.
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Meanwhile, Republicans privately acknowledge they face a difficult political environment and are banking on voter antipathy toward Democrats rather than enthusiasm for their own agenda.
Polling shows Trump’s approval is deeply underwater, but his core supporters remain far more motivated to vote than Democrats or independents — a gap that could prove decisive in November.
A former White House insider raises alarms
A former White House attorney who helped manage one of the most turbulent legal periods in recent presidential history is speaking out — and his concerns go well beyond political disagreement.
Ty Cobb, who served as a lawyer inside the Trump White House during the first administration, says he sees a deliberate, step-by-step effort to tighten control over how elections are run in America.
He points to a pattern: challenges to voting machines, changes to mail-in voting rules, new voter registration requirements, and the recent removal of members of the Election Assistance Commission — the federal body that helps states run fair elections.
According to Cobb, a recent presidential speech fits into that larger picture. His view is that the speech was designed to build the legal and political foundation needed to justify declaring a national emergency around the time of the upcoming elections — a move that could dramatically expand the president’s ability to intervene in how voting is conducted.
ICE agents at polling places?
Among the most striking concerns raised is the possibility of federal immigration enforcement agents being stationed at polling locations on Election Day.
Cobb says that based on public statements from figures close to the administration — including former Trump adviser Steve Bannon and attorney Todd Blanche — the presence of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents at polls is likely. Whether that would extend to National Guard deployments remains unclear.
Critics argue this kind of presence could discourage eligible voters — particularly immigrants and minority communities — from casting ballots, regardless of whether any law is technically broken. Cobb draws a direct comparison to efforts during the 2020 election, when he says Trump sought to seize voting machines before being told by then-Attorney General Bill Barr that there was no legal basis to do so.
What guardrails are left?
In previous years, people inside the administration — including retired generals and senior Cabinet officials — reportedly pushed back when they believed presidential actions crossed important lines.
That internal check, according to Cobb, no longer exists in the current administration.
In its place, Cobb argues, is a circle of loyalists whose primary function is to support and carry out the president’s agenda rather than offer independent counsel.
He specifically points to significant turnover at the Department of Justice, suggesting that as many as 20% of its attorneys have left — many of them experienced lawyers who held leadership roles.
He also claims that FBI and DOJ resources have been redirected heavily toward immigration enforcement, pulling focus away from areas like counterterrorism, financial crimes, and civil rights enforcement.
The most powerful guardrail remaining, in Cobb’s assessment, is voter turnout itself.
What about real election security threats?
To be fair, concerns about foreign interference in U.S. elections are not invented. Intelligence agencies have documented efforts by foreign governments — including Russia, China, Iran, and others — to influence American public opinion. The U.S. has also, historically, engaged in similar influence efforts abroad.
However, Cobb’s view — and the view of many election security experts — is that claims about compromised voting machines have been thoroughly examined and rejected by courts and independent investigators.
He points to a high-profile legal settlement in which a major television network paid nearly $787 million after broadcasting claims about rigged voting machines that were found to be unsupported by evidence.
GOP midterm strategy: Run on fear
Inside Republican political circles, there is open acknowledgment that the party faces an uphill battle in the midterms — and an equally open debate about how to fight it.
The strategy taking shape, according to reporting from Axios, is less about selling voters on a positive vision and more about making sure they distrust Democrats enough to stay in the Republican column.
Party insiders have described the coming election bluntly as a contest driven by which side voters dislike more.
The frustration within the party runs deep. Many Republican strategists feel the White House has missed opportunities to highlight economic wins — particularly tax cuts — while attention has shifted toward a speech focused on election interference claims dating back to 2020.
Sen. John Cornyn of Texas has reportedly expressed confusion over how relitigating a six-year-old election helps Republicans win in November.
The poll numbers tell a complicated story
The data is not encouraging for either party — but it does reveal some important differences in motivation.
A Washington Post/Ipsos poll shows President Donald Trump’s approval rating sitting at 37%, with 61% of respondents disapproving.
Among registered voters specifically, his net approval rating — the gap between those who approve and those who don’t — sits at -19 percentage points.
Republican pollsters working on competitive races say internal research shows voters are more focused on whether the president is improving their daily lives than on election integrity arguments.
Some data now suggests Democrats could gain enough House seats to flip the chamber, potentially turning a current six-seat Republican majority into a seven-seat Democratic one.
Trump’s net approval is described as underwater — meaning more people disapprove than approve — by double digits.
The enthusiasm gap: MAGA still shows up
Despite the unfavorable polling, Republicans may have a significant advantage where it counts most: at the ballot box.
A HarrisX survey from July found that 75% of Trump supporters said they were certain they would vote in the midterms. That compares to 70% among Republicans who don’t identify as MAGA supporters, and 63% among Democrats.
When the question was broadened to include those who said they would “probably” vote, 85% of Trump’s core supporters said they planned to participate.
The poll also found that Democrats and independents were more likely than Republicans — of any stripe — to say they definitely would not vote.
For Democrats, the enthusiasm gap represents a serious warning. Even with favorable approval ratings on individual issues, elections are ultimately decided by who actually shows up.
What Democrats need to do differently
Democratic strategists face a two-front challenge heading into November: energize their own base while making the case to persuadable voters that the party can be trusted to govern responsibly.
Polling from The New York Times suggests that roughly 91% of voters who identify primarily with the Republican Party intend to vote for GOP candidates in November — a figure that reflects just how consolidated the party has become around its current direction.
Democrats have made progress sharpening their message on kitchen-table issues like housing costs, grocery prices, and wages.
But analysts say the party still lacks a consistent, unified message on hot-button cultural debates — the kinds of issues that reliably drive Republican turnout.
A Pew Research Center poll shows both parties carry similarly low approval ratings in the eyes of the general public.
And a CNBC survey found that voters are now more likely to be put off by a candidate closely aligned with the MAGA movement than by one aligned with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party — a data point that complicates the Republican “we’re bad but they’re worse” argument.
Why this matters
The 2026 midterms will determine which party controls Congress for the final two years of Trump’s second term.
Control of the House and Senate determines whether the administration’s legislative agenda advances, whether investigations are launched, and — in the most serious scenarios — whether impeachment proceedings are possible.
Beyond the partisan scorecard, the debates playing out right now — about who has authority over elections, whether federal agents should be near polling places, and how election security claims are used politically — will shape how Americans think about voting itself for years to come.
Our conversation
Sean Freeder, a political analyst from the University of North Florida, joins me on this week’s episode of Politics & Power to discuss the upcoming midterm elections:
- Does the presence of federal agents near polling places discourage legitimate voters — or does it make elections more secure?
- If both parties have low approval ratings, what actually drives voters to the polls?
- Is the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats a reflection of passion for one side — or frustration and disillusionment on the other?
- When does raising election security concerns become a genuine public service, and when does it become a tool for undermining confidence in democracy?
- What would it take for either party to rebuild broad public trust before November?
- What does a presidential address really aim to do — warn or justify action?
We discuss the legal limits, the risks for voters, and why turnout may be the deciding safeguard. Watch live at 10:30 a.m. or catch our encore at 9 p.m. on News4JAX+. You can also catch up any time on News4JAX+, NewsJAX.com or our YouTube channel.