Here comes El Nino: It's early, likely to be big, sloppy and add even more heat to a warming world
After months of gradually warming sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, NOAA officially issued an El Nino advisory Thursday and stated that this one might be different than the others.
UN weather agency predicts rare 'triple-dip' La Nina in 2022
The U.N. weather agency is predicting the phenomenon known as La Nina is poised to last through the end of this year, a mysterious โtriple dipโ โ the first this century โ caused by three straight years of its effect on climate patterns like drought and flooding worldwide.
Australia sweltered through its 4th-hottest year in 2020
Australia has sweltered through its fourth-hottest year on record despite the usually cooling impact in recent months of the La Nina climate pattern, the nations weather bureau said on Friday, Jan. 8, 2021. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft,File)CANBERRA โ Australia sweltered through its fourth-hottest year on record last year despite the recent return of the usually cooling La Nina climate pattern, the nationโs weather bureau said on Friday. La Nina, the cooler flipside of the better known El Nino, was declared in the Pacific Ocean in September. La Nina occurs when equatorial trade winds become stronger, changing ocean surface currents and drawing up cooler deep water. The hottest temperature in Australia for 2020 was 48.9 degrees Celsius (120 degrees Fahrenheit) recorded at the height of the wildfire emergency at Penrith in New South Wales state on Jan. 4.
Januaryโs forecast staying chilly
December had 7 freezes in 2020 but that's not all...more are likely later this month. While the first couple days of the year started out well above average -- in the 80s -- donโt get accustomed to those temperatures. Harsh cold will be on hold but a couple of freezes look likely by the week of Jan. 20. Forecasters say cool Pacific water temperatures, called La Nina, favor above-normal conditions across much of the southern United States except over the Southeast. La Nina is expected to stay through the end of spring increasing the chances February could stay chillier than normal before the springtime thaw.
On the Drought Vulnerability Index, where does Florida stand?
The Drought Vulnerability Index from Climate Central focuses on what states are exposed and sensitive to drought, as well as their ability to adapt. For Florida, that means weโre looking at increasing drought conditions heading into our fire season. Drought Vulnerability Index (Climate Matters)A state with a low vulnerability score can still experience drought conditions, but they likely have a stronger economy and robust adaptation measures making them more resilient than other states. Drought in Florida from 2000-2020 (NIDIS)Looking back, 2017 was an active fire season for those in northeast Florida and southeast Georgia with the West Mims fire. The states with the highest Drought Vulnerability Index include Oklahoma, Iowa and Montana.
Forecasters: Drought more likely than blizzards this winter
Two-thirds of the United States should get a warmer than normal winter, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted. Only Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota, will get a colder than normal winter, forecasters said. The rest of the nation will likely be closer to normal, NOAA said. Judah Cohen, a winter weather specialist for the private firm Atmospheric Environmental Research, sees a harsher winter for the Northeast than NOAA does. But he said La Nina is the strongest indicator among several for what drives winter weather.
NOAA sees 60% chance of having warmer winter than normal
With a La Nina climate pattern in place, southern parts of the U.S. may experience expanded and intensifying drought during the winter months ahead. More modest probabilities for warmer temperatures are forecast in the southern parts of the west coast, and from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast. Above-average temperatures are also favored for Hawaii and western and northern Alaska. More modest chances for drier conditions are forecast in southern Alaska, and from California across the Rockies, Central Plains, and into the Southeast. Drought conditions are expected to improve in the northern Rockies, Northwest, New England, Alaska, and Hawaii over the coming months.
La Nia Watch: Stirring hurricanes and fires
If the trend continues over the next five months, the stage will be set for La Nia. La Nia brings broad changes to weather patterns including greater threats for tropical systems and wetter summers for Floridians. La Nina watch is issued by NOAA due to model predictions showing a 60% chance of La Nia developing by December 2020. Subtropical Storm Andrea spins off Florida May 2007 as the 133,000 thousand acre Bugaboo Fire burns during a strong La Nia year. If La Nia occurs, it will mean a region of the Pacific ocean is temporarily cooler than average.