JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Update: Keeping the dream alive, maybe up to a 2-5% chance from Central Georgia northward for a major snow event. Now, before you go Lloyd Christmas on me, (as in Jim Carey’s character in Dumb and Dumber) remember there will be many changes to the actual final forecast.
What we do know is that there are major weather swings heading to the Southeast United States (including Jacksonville). Rain and chill this weekend, to highs near 80° Tuesday and Wednesday, followed up with a major plunge in temperatures that could allow to the ever so small, but growing chance of a serious snow event into the Deep South.
The GFS is now also “hinting” there could be a major snow event deep into the South. The GFS updates four times daily and most model runs are not suggesting anything.
But there was this output from Wednesday’s 18z model run.
So for those snow lovers out there, yes, you can keep the dream alive, for now.
This was from earlier Wednesday.
About two or three times each winter, the global forecast models (Euro and GFS) fly off the rails. This year’s crazy story is coming from the Euro Global Forecast Model.
The picture below pretty much gives it away, but in an unusual weather pattern not too far off from the pattern we saw just before Christmas in 1989 (yes, that one, with the snow just before Christmas) is being predicted.
The European model is updated twice daily and on the very furthest fringe of its ability -- about 10 days from now -- the model wants to crank up an inverted trough to our south with a cold arctic high to our north.
The result is to stream onshore moisture while there is just enough cold air to allow for snow in Southern Georgia.
So what are the odds? Like in Dumb and Dumber when Lloyd Christmas asked what were his chances of becoming Lauren Holly’s boyfriend, she responded by saying “about one in a million.” Lloyd was overjoyed, saying, “So you are telling me there is a chance!”
Classic misrepresentation of reality.
We too are at that moment, although, I would say for Southern Georgia, the chances may be higher than one in a million, but just barely.
The chances for Jacksonville?
For now, zero.
But it is fun to dream.