Forecasters at Colorado State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration revised the hurricane numbers down for the remaining season, which lasts through Nov. 30.
CSU forecaster Dr. Philip Klotzbach calls for a total of 18 named storms and eight hurricanes, with four major hurricanes that pack winds over 110 mph.
The update on Aug. 4 is a subtle pivot lowering the hurricane’s numbers by one from the previous forecast. The season is still expected to remain above average with this latest revision — which already includes the three short-lived tropical storms this year.
NOAA echoed a similar reduction lowering its previous hurricane storm count by one.
The agency now gives a range of 14 to 20 named storms, five to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.
The most active part of the season is August through October when 90% of the storms occur. This year, the window will likely be condensed since forecast models do not show any tropical development in the upcoming first weeks of August.
Like last year, we are in a lull of storm activity when 31 days passed between mid-July to mid-August without any storms. Then the season went into overdrive to the finish.
Despite the slowdown so far, both agencies expect an above-average season and look to the ongoing La Nina as the primary driver for the anticipated hurricanes.
Klotzbach cites the cooler than normal water in the tropical eastern and central Pacific for keeping the overall numbers higher than average Atlantic hurricane activity.
But the most significant factor in tamping the latest forecast to a near or slightly above normal year is cooler water coming into the main development region of the Atlantic from the northern parts of the ocean. This may displace the recent warm-up in the central Atlantic.
Already this season has had three short-lived systems compared to nine last year. Those “shorties” contribute about two named storms per year on average — which are tropical cyclones that last less than 48 hours.