TD 9 and TD 10 Hermine or Ian? That is our 1st question

Hurricane Hunters did find tropical storm force winds, but there is Tropical Depression 10 battling for the name too!

Hurricane Hunters have established 40 mph winds and a complete circulation.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Earlier, Tropical Depression 9 was investigated by Hurricane Hunters, and they found a broad area of low pressure. Still, since being on station, they recorded a gradual increase in air pressure and a nearly complete loss of showers and storms anywhere near the center. Not quite a tropical storm, yet.

Then again, Tropical Depression 10 formed just off the coast of Africa and will just add to some short-term confusion on storms and storm names. Pay attention to Tropical Depression 9.

Track and intensity forecasts: What next?

The basic and most important rule on hurricane forecasting, as we have seen repeatedly this season from the GFS, is that without a clear-cut, well-established core, track and intensity forecasting is pretty much worthless. I expect both the GFS and the Euro will become more in agreement as the National Hurricane Center sends in ever more resources to investigate the developing tropical storm.

Yet, the models are rather scary for someone.

The good news for Jacksonville, we will be on the “other side” of the state for this particular storm. At the moment, few models give Jacksonville more than 2 to 3 inches of rain with the passage somewhat west of Jacksonville or somewhat south of Jacksonville.

As you enjoy a fall-like weekend, the prudent thing to do might be to double-check your generators, essential supplies of food and water, and the possibility of being without power for a few days.

All weekend, keep an eye on what will ultimately become Hermine, and The Weather Authority will keep you updated throughout the weekend.

Possible SW Coast of Florida on Wednesday morning? Stay tuned!

About the Author:

Our chief meteorologist lives and breathes the weather on the First Coast.