Why rainy season hasn’t started in our area

File photo of lightning hitting the ground. Rainy season has yet to start so far in SE Georgia and NE Florida. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez) (Julio Cortez, Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – We are now in the month of June, but have you noticed something missing?

It’s those daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Rainy season is normally underway in early June, but that has not happened.

So what exactly is going on?

The idea of an early start

There were strong indications a couple of weeks ago that rainy season could get going in late May.

Scattered showers and storms were developing along seabreezes during that time, and fronts were having a difficult time entering the region.

But things changed.

A storm system around Memorial Day weekend went up the Atlantic Coast toward the Carolinas.

A coastal storm system Memorial Day weekend pushed dry air back into the region.

This pushed very dry air from the north down into the region, drying the area out and ending the daily rain chances.

Arlene’s effect

Tropical Storm Arlene also had a small impact on our weather.

Instead of a messy storm system floating over the Florida peninsula, Arlene developed and moved southward toward Cuba.

Arlene could have easily started the rainy season pattern, but with its southward movement, a cold front was allowed to push south this past weekend.

Once again, this dragged dry air back into the region, ending the rain chances.

When will it begin?

Rain chances will tick higher and higher as the week progresses.

A cold front will approach the area late this week into the weekend, which could mitigate rain chances in Southeast Georgia.

Rain chances through next Tuesday.

It is possible this front will stall and fade away next week, which could mean rainy season has started.

The front may also clear the area, which would again bring dry air back into the area.

While an early start to rainy season did look very possible, two systems helped move dry air back into the area. This has pushed the likely start of our more active weather pattern possibly into mid-June.

About the Author:

David Heckard is The Weather Authority's Assistant Chief Meteorologist.