JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – As the holiday week continues, Northeast Florida is keeping a close eye on what The Weather Authority describes as a “yellow blob” on the weather map—an area of unsettled weather with the potential to develop into something tropical over or near Florida.
There is a 20% chance this system will become a named tropical feature in the next seven days.
However, even if the disturbance doesn’t intensify or acquire tropical status, it’s expected to be a “rainmaker” for our region.
If development does occur, a low-pressure system could form, and we are monitoring for possible tropical or subtropical development.
For those planning to travel for July 4th, be aware: the period from Wednesday to Friday is highlighted as the time with the highest risk of flooding and significant rainfall in Jacksonville and surrounding areas.
Rainfall outlook, increased flooding risk
Exact Track 4D radar is already picking up on scattered showers across the region.
Showers are moving along major highways like I-10 and I-75, with more moisture feeding in from the Gulf.
The next five days could bring around 2 inches of rain to Macclenny and Gainesville, just over an inch in Jacksonville, and about the same for Orange Park, Green Cove Springs, and Palatka.
The coast and parts of southern Georgia are forecast to receive close to an inch to an inch and a quarter, while areas further south can expect even more.
Regardless of whether the system forms into a tropical depression or storm, flooding risk is expected to increase throughout the week, especially in places south of Jacksonville.
So, if your plans for the latter part of the week include any outdoor activities or travel, be prepared to monitor changing conditions and check the forecast frequently.
Your local forecast
As of this morning, it’s mostly dry from Jacksonville out to the coast, with a 20% to 40% chance of any rain activity during the day.
Showers are expected to become heavier after noon into the early afternoon, following the typical summer pattern in Northeast Florida.
Showers are forecast to pick up as the afternoon progresses with growing radar activity by 8 a.m. and more moving in by midday.
Stay ahead of the rapidly changing July weather, and download the News4JAX app to track rain as it moves through, and follow updates from The Weather Authority and Exact Track 4D for any changes in the forecast.
Have rain or storm photos? Share them with the community on SnapJAX for a chance to be featured.