Model confusion continues with the potential for Invest 91. Chances of development are down as of 8:00 p.m.
The model confusion continues. Early this morning, three models had Invest 91 becoming Hurricane Gabrielle and one model did not develop the system at all. As of the latest update, more models are showing a much weaker tropical wave.
The overall path of the low-pressure area remains the same, with the wave expected to reach the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday of next week.
The shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited over the central tropical Atlantic. A drier air mass is limiting the potential for development over the next couple of days.
Models continue to hint at a tropical depression forming during the early to middle part of next week as the system moves westward at around 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
This system is likely to be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle to the latter part of next week.
The formation chance through 48 hours has dropped to 30 percent and the formation chance through 7 days is now 60 percent.