Major Hurricane Larry is a large hurricane
We have seen a few massive hurricanes over the past 5 years. Irma had a similar 50 mile wide “eye” at one time and there has been quite the uptick since 2016. There has been also been big up tick in the number of major hurricanes, especially those major hurricanes impacting the United States.
Fred about to get company
The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring another area of low pressure. Designated 95L, this is located around 14°N 47°W or about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands (pretty far out in the Atlantic). It is also racing westward at nearly 20 mph. This fast motion is most likely keeping the National Hurricane Center on “pause” mode from classifying this as the next potential tropical cyclone.
Scattered showers with storms, more to come this weekend and then our weather turns tropical
High pressure will shift to the southeast as a cold front slides into southeast Georgia. The change brings a flow from the southwest. Showers, storms are expected to be most active inland before noon then toward the US 301, I-95 and the beaches this afternoon and evening.
Tropical Depression Four forms off of the coast of South Carolina
At 1100 AM EDT the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 78.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should make landfall along coast of South Carolina in the warning area later this evening.
One more time: Tropical Depression 29 forms in Caribbean
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center has been watching an unorganized cluster of thunderstorms in the Caribbean for the past few days. According to the NHC, recent visible and microwave satellite images suggest that the system almost certainly now has a well-defined center and it was upgraded to Tropical Depression 29. The system is in the Central Caribbean, about 315 miles southeast of Kingston Jamaica, and moving west at 15 mph with sustained wind speeds of 35 mph. The storm is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Eta by Sunday and then a Category 1 hurricane by Monday before making landfall near Honduras and Nicaragua as a hurricane. Although the path does not show the system moving into the Gulf, The Weather Authority will watch it closely in the coming days.
Gamma weakens into a Tropical Depression, will be absorbed by Delta as it passes.
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Gamma has now weakened into a Tropical Depression after crossing the Yucatan peninsula. The hurricane center said Gamma was about 190 miles east-northeast of Progreso, Mexico, and had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Gamma is forecast to gradually turn toward the southwest later Monday and continue to move slowly in that direction through mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts.
More tropical trouble as Wilfred is hours away from being named
Tropical depression #22, according to nearly all of the hurricane intensity models, will quickly spin up into Wilfred. By Friday evening, the system will have acquired tropical storm force winds (sustained winds of 40 mph or greater) and the hurricane center will make the announcement, that they are officially out of names for this season. Only the season of 2005 have we done this since lists of names were announce ahead of each season. TD #22 likely to named Wilfred later todayNote on the picture below that the “cone of uncertainty” becomes a bulb, this is an indication that the forecast from the National Hurricane Center has unusually high levels of uncertainty, basically a low confidence forecast. The good news is that this will be a slow moving system.
Tropical Storm Sally to become hurricane as it nears Gulf Coast
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The tropical storm that formed Saturday off south Florida is strengthening over the warm Gulf waters is expected to approach the Gulf Coast on Monday night with high winds and a life-threatening storm surge. At 8 a.m. Monday, Tropical Storm Sally has 65 mph sustained winds and was centered about 115 miles east southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The National Hurricane Center said dangerous storm surge was possible along the northern Gulf Coast starting on Monday and added hurricane conditions could set in there early Tuesday. A tropical storm watch was extended westward from the Okaloosa/Walton County line in Florida to the Alabama-Florida line. Tropical Storm Rene weakened in recent hours and was reclassified as a tropical depression.
Tropical trouble in South Florida. Sally is that you?
The NHC began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 19 at 5 p.m. Friday. Forecasters predict 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across west-central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, through Sunday. The depression is expected to grow into Tropical Storm Sally once it is over open water in the Gulf of Mexico later in the day. It will be the 18th named storm of this over-the-top hurricane season. Sally could intensify to a strong tropical storm or even Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mississippi/Louisiana coastline early Wednesday morning.
Hurricane Laura battling dry air, but expected to intensify into a Category 4 storm
On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday with landfall early Thursday. Strengthening is forecast as the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane today. Tropical storm winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas this afternoon and tonight.
Marco continues to weaken as it nears Louisiana
Forecasters warn the system could bring a storm surge and damaging winds to coastal Mississippi and Louisiana through Tuesday. As of 5 a.m. Tuesday, Marco was down graded to a Post-Tropical Storms 110 miles south-southeast of Lafayette, Louisiana. Marco is forecast to approach the coast of Louisiana and then degenerate into a remnant low on Today. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Morgan City, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Intracoastal City to the Mississippi/Alabama border, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and metropolitan New Orleans.
Marco downgraded to a Tropical Storm
Now Tropical Storm Marco is expected to reach the Gulf Coast Monday night into Tuesday. Marco will be susceptible to rapid changes in structure and intensity until it reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Tropical Storm Marco (TropicalTidbits)RELATED: System headed toward Florida gets a name: Laura | 2 tropical systems in Gulf next week | Wind shear fades over the Main Development Region of the tropics - A bad omen? Strong winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week.
Tropical Depression 13 likely to stay marginal through Saturday, then watch out
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Floridians need to be very watchful as Tropical Depression 13 -- likely a tropical storm on Friday -- could impact the state of Florida in just five days. A tropical storm watch is out for Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands. RELATED STORIES: Tropical Depression 14 forms, to head into the Gulf | Wind shear fades over the Main Development Region of the tropics - A bad omen? | Mid-August starts a critical shift in Jacksonville’s weather patternThis is the 13th tropical depression for this season, a record for the earliest 13th tropical depression of any season (169 years). ONLINE TOOLS: Interactive tracking map | Plan and PrepareA second system being watched by the hurricane center became Tropical Depression 14 and is also expected to become a tropical storm by the end of the day.
Mid-August starts a critical shift in Jacksonville’s weather pattern
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Let’s talk about Jacksonville before we talk about the heart of the current hurricane season. They have also been predominately during the early evening hours between 3-6 pm. The shift will be notable in about two weeks and it will coincide with the shift we will see in the hurricane season. Not withstanding this record breaking early hurricane season, the typical hurricane season doesn’t get interesting until about August 20th. Early season storms (especially pre-season storms) are typically remembered for their rain amounts, not for their destructive wind damage and killer storm surge.
Wind shear fades over the Main Development Region of the tropics - A bad omen?
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Wind shear is quantified as the variation of wind speed and direction from lower altitude winds and higher altitude winds. In the tropics, wind shear greater than 30 mph typically weakens (and it can be sudden and dramatic) tropical systems. On these pictures, the yellow areas represent wind shear (winds greater than 30 mph), the red areas represent winds greater than 45 mph. On the other hand, areas of no yellow-orange-red are regions of light wind shear (bad news as storms can develop quickly). Right now, there is a lot of wind shear over the tropics
Isaias regains hurricane force just offshore of South Carolina
The Hurricane Center said it expected the storm to make landfall early Tuesday near southern North Carolina. Still, on this part of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts that has been affected to varying degrees by seven tropical storms or hurricanes since 2014, residents weren't panicking. Up the coast in southern North Carolina, high winds from Isaias’ inner core knocked down trees and power lines, blocking roads. Wayne Stanley and his family came to the city over the weekend from Julian, North Carolina. Farther up the coast into North Carolina, the hurricane center predicted storm surges of 3 to 5 feet (0.9 to 1.5 meters) when Isaias moves onshore.
More tropical showers for Jacksonville
JACKOSNVILLE, Fla – Hanna and Gonzalo are in the Gulf and the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, respectively. Yep, the earliest seventh and earliest eighth named tropical storms (no hurricanes, yet). Now, for Jacksonville, we will continue our pattern of coastal morning showers, that move to I-95 by the lunch hour and then blow-up west of town after 2pm. Saturday will be much like today, which will make it a decent day to get yard work done, but after that? Bigger afternoon storms and showers return to everyone starting Sunday through next Thursday, Many locations will receive 2-3 inches of rain (if not more).