Jacksonville, FL – Wednesday, Sept. 10, marks the climatological apex of the Atlantic hurricane season, but you wouldn’t know it based on how eerily quiet it is. No tropical storms. No signals of onset. Its stillness is unusual at this time of year.
Mid-September is traditionally the statistical high point of the Atlantic hurricane season, but right now the tropics are uncharacteristically quiet. There are no active storms, and overall energy levels (ACE) sit at just 67% of normal. Most of that came from the one hurricane this year, Erin.
It’s a veritable meteorological ghost town thanks to atmospheric stability and strong upper-level winds that have halted development.
What’s surprising is that this and last year’s pause coincide with very warm water temperatures in the Atlantic.
Just a year ago, Florida learned that a quiet September can set the stage for calamity. No storms existed during the peak until Hurricane Helene slammed the Big Bend as a Category 4 in late September.
The streak continued in October, forming Hurricane Milton, which was an explosive Category 5 that turned into a Category 3 at landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast.
It is too early to count on the lull lasting all season. A coming pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is forecast to stoke convective activity.
Meteorological models are pointing to late September into October as the window when the season’s energy could bring back the action. Hopefully, if they develop, they stay out at sea like the others so far this year.